CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Singapore Dollar (USDSGD)

USD/SGD resumed its move lower, taking cues from softer UST yields, USD overnight, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart fades

“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Consolidation likely at lower levels. Support at 1.2953 (recent low). Resistance at 1.3065 (21-DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.89% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2979. With S$NEER close to its strong end of its band, the room for further downside in USDSGD will continue to be restrained intra-day unless broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can shift lower.”

USDSGD was a touch firmer this morning, on follow-through momentum from the USD bounce after US CPI, real hourly earnings surprised to the upside, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Markets are waiting for US PPI, initial jobless claims

“Pair was last at 1.3053. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI was flat. Consolidation likely. Resistance at 1.3065 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 1.30, 1.2953 (recent low).”

““S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.88% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.3036. With S$NEER close to its strong end of its band, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day unless broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower.”

“We watch US PPI, initial jobless claims later tonight.”

USD/SGD’s rebound post-NFP last Fri stumbled at 21-DMA, OCBC FX strategist Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Waiting for US CPI later this evening

“Broader decline in UST yields, USD and the JPY strength this morning saw USD/SGD eased lower. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.91% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.3010. With S$NEER close to its lower bound, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day.”

“However, if broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower. Pair was last at 1.3025. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely near recent lows as markets await FOMC decision next week.”

“Support at 1.30, 1.2953 (recent low). Resistance at 1.3065 (21-DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). We watch US CPI later this evening.”

USD/SGD fell further, tracking the broader softness in USD, OCBC Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation likely near recent lows ahead of US jobs data

“Pair breached 1.30 briefly to trade a low of 1.2992 at one point. Pair was last below 1.30 levels. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely near recent lows as markets await US jobs data. Support at 1.2960. Resistance at 1.3090 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.92% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2990. With S$NEER close to its lower bound, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day. However, if broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower.”

USD/SGD fell. Pair was last at 1.3030 levels, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation likely as markets await US jobs data

“Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely as markets await US jobs data. Softer print may lead to markets further pricing in 50bp cut for the Fed at upcoming FOMC.”

“That may translate into USD softness. Support at 1.30 (recent low). Resistance at 1.31 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.89% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD rebounded to near 1.31 overnight before partially erasing the move, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rebound may have stalled for now

“Pair was last at 1.3070 levels. Daily momentum turned is bullish while RSI is flat. Rebound may have stalled for now.”

“Resistance at 1.3110 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 1.3050, 1.30 (recent low). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.87% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD rebounded, in line with our caution, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Further rebound not ruled out

“Move higher tracked broad US Dollar (USD) rebound. Pair was last at 1.3090 levels. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Rebound is underway. Resistance at 1.3130/60 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“Support at 1.30 (recent low). Further rebound not ruled out as markets adjust/ reduce shorts ahead of key data risks – US labour market. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.87% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continued to trade a subdued range near recent lows, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

Bearish momentum on daily chart is waning

“RMB strength, broad USD softness are some factors that continued to underpin SGD strength to some extent. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.85% above our model-implied mid, with implied lower bound at 1.3010.”

“S$NEER near the stronger side of its band somewhat suggests that additional gains in SGD may continue to “lose pace” vs. its peers although SGD may still appreciate vs a broadly softer USD.”

“USD/SGD was last at 1.3074. Bearish momentum on daily chart is waning while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. We remain somewhat cautious of rebound risks. Resistance here at 1.31 and 1.3210 (21 DMA). Support at 1.30, 1.2960 levels.”