CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Singapore Dollar (USDSGD)

USD/SGD eased into Fri NY close and continued to trade on the back foot this morning. Pair was last seen at 1.3442 levels, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong notes.

Bearish divergence on MACD and rising wedge pattern are forming

“Daily momentum is mild bullish but rise in RSI moderated. Bearish divergence on MACD and rising wedge pattern appear to be forming. Technical patterns point to signs of bearish pullback in the near term. Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low).”

“Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels. Policy uncertainties associated with Trump policies, swings in RMB and JPY should continue to drive USDSGD in the near term. S$NEER was last at 1.27% above modelimplied mid.”

USD/SGD’s advancement came close to 1.3490 but eased this morning. Last seen at 1.3404 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bearish divergence on MACD appears to be forming

“Daily momentum is mild bullish but rise in RSI moderated. Bearish divergence on MACD appears to be forming. We watch price action if USD/SGD trades lower, tactically.”

“Support at 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). Resistance at 1.3490, 1.3520 levels. S$NEER was last at 1.30% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD extended its bull run, tracking moves in broad USD. Pair was last at 1.3475 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risk skewed to the upside

“Trend is your friend and trump trade is the trend for now. Risks remain skewed to the upside. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose. Risk skewed to the upside.”

“Resistance at 1.3520 levels. Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low). S$NEER was last at 1.25% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD inched higher, tracking moves in broad US Dollar (USD). Pair was last at 1.3380 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation is likely

“Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose. Consolidation likely with slight risk to the upside. Resistance here at 1.3410 levels (76.4% fibo). Support at 1.3340 (200 DMA), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low).”

“S$NEER was last at 1.38% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD resumed its move higher this morning, tracking moves in broad USD. Pair was last at 1.3376 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation on the day

“Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Consolidation likely with slight risk to the upside. Support at 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low), 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.31 (38.2% fibo).”

“S$NEER was last at 1.42% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD rose, tracking the rise in broad USD, UST yields as Trump won elections. Pair was last at 1.3294 levels, OCBC’ FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

To consolidate for now

“Daily momentum is flat but rise in RSI moderated. We see consolidation for now. Resistance at 1.3350 (200 DMA). Support at 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low), 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.31 (38.2% fibo).”

“S$NEER eased; last at 1.38% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD fell, tracking the pullback in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 1.3171, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD pulls back as Trump trade unwinds

“Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI eased from near overbought conditions. Support at 1.31 (38.2% fibo), 1.3040 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low).”

“S$NEER strengthened; last at 1.62% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continued to trade near recent high with SGD weakness mirroring JPY and CHF softness. Last at 1.3231 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

SGD weakness mirrors JPY and CHF softness

“Daily momentum remains bullish while RSI is near overbought conditions. Potentially, a rising wedge pattern is coming into sight. This is typically associated with a bearish reversal. We monitor price pattern if a turn lower is near.”

“Resistance at 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low), 1.3350 levels (200 DMA). Support at 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.31 (38.2% fibo). S$NEER was last at 1.44% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD remains better bid; last at 1.3246levels, OCBC’s FX analyst Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

MAS maintains status quo on policy stance

“Daily momentum remains bullish while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low), 1.3350 levels (200 DMA). Support at 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.31 (38.2% fibo).”

“S$NEER was last at 1.48% above model-implied mid. MAS maintaining status quo on policy stance means that S$NEER strength may linger and only fade at some point when core inflation ease further.”

USD/SGD traded lower, in line with our call for pullback. Pair was last at 1.3128 levels, OCBC’s FX analyst Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is bullish

“Move lower came amid broad pullback in USD. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI turned lower from near overbought conditions. Further pullback likely.

“Support at 1.3020 (50 DMA), 1.2970/80 levels (23.6% fibo, 21 DMA). Resistance at 1.3140/50 levels (recent high), 1.32 levels (50% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low).”

“Decline in S$NEER has moderated and is now stabilizing in its range of 1.6 – 2% above model implied mid. Last estimated at 1.7% above model-implied mid.”

Today, the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision to keep all three parameters of the SGD NEER policy band unchanged was largely expected, DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

USD/SGD to trade lower on a lower DXY range

“The negative output gap is expected to close in 2H24 from this year’s GDP growth coming around the upper end of the official 2-3% forecast range. Advance GDP growth expanded at a better-than-expected 4.1% YoY in 3Q24 vs. the consensus for a rise to 3.8% from 2.8% in 2Q24.”

“The MAS forecasted core inflation to decline from 2.3% in July-August to 2% by the end of 2024 before entering a 1.5-2.5% range in 2025. USD/SGD should continue to take its cue from the currencies of its major trading partners.”

“Our view remains that USD/SGD will trade lower in a 1.25-1.30 range on a lower DXY range of 95-100 driven by another 200 bps of Fed cuts to 3% from now to next year.”

Recent rally in USD/SGD shows tentative signs of moderation. Pair was last at 1.3029 levels, OCBC’s FX strategist Christopher Wong notes.

Tentative signs of moderation

“Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3060 (50 DMA), 1.31 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) Support at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo), 1.2940 (21 DMA).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.95% above our model-implied mid. MAS policy decision will be announced on 14 Oct, alongside 3Q GDP. We expect MAS to maintain policy status quo again at the upcoming Oct MPC meeting as prevailing appreciating path of the S$NEER policy band remains appropriate.”

“But we do not rule out an outside chance that the MAS may surprise with an earlier easing, given that MAS adopts a forward-looking approach to monetary policy making and that the core CPI’s disinflation journey remains intact, apart from the slight bump-up in August.”

USD/SGD continued to get bumped up for 5 consecutive sessions. Pair was last at 1.304         1 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

MAS may surprise with an earlier easing

“Hotter US payrolls was the trigger, in line with our caution that the corrective rebound can continue. Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3060 (50 DMA), 1.31 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) Support at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo), 1.2940 (21 DMA).

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.79% above our modelimplied mid. MAS policy decision will be announced on 14 Oct, alongside 3Q GDP. We expect MAS to maintain policy status quo again at the upcoming Oct MPC meeting as prevailing appreciating path of the S$NEER policy band remains appropriate.

“But we do not rule out an outside chance that the MAS may surprise with an earlier easing, given that MAS adopts a forward-looking approach to monetary policy making and that the core CPI’s disinflation journey remains intact, apart from the slight bump-up in August.”

USD/SGD has corrected higher for 4 consecutive days this week, tracking the uptick in USD. Pair was last at 1.2978, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Daily momentum is mild bullish

“Focus today on US NFP. Risks are likely to be symmetric for USDSGD. If print comes in hotter, then the corrective rebound can continue but if NFP prints lower, then the pair should consolidate with a downside bias.”

“Daily momentum is mild bullish while rise in RSI moderated. Consolidation likely ahead of NFP data. Resistance at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low), 1.3070 (50 DMA). Support at 1.2940 (21 DMA), 1.2890, 1.28 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.85% above our model-implied mid.”

“USD/SGD rebounded. Pair was last at 1.2863, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bearish momentum on daily chart fades

“Mild bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. Near rebound risks likely to play out but broader trend remains skewed to the downside.”

“Resistance at 1.29, 1.30 levels. Support at 1.28, 1.2740 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2012 low to 2020 high). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.96% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continued to trade lower, tracking the broad decline in USD, rebound in RMB and JPY. Pair was last at 1.2811, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Broader trend remains skewed to the downside

“Daily momentum is turning mild bearish while RSI is near oversold conditions. We remain cautious of near term rebound risks but broader trend remains skewed to the downside.”

“Support at 1.28, 1.2740 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2012 low to 2020 high). Resistance at 1.29, 1.30 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.95% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continues to trade near recent low but decline may have found strong support in the short term. Pair was last at 1.2830, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Daily momentum is flat

“USD/SGD continued to trade near recent low but decline may have found strong support in the short term.”

“Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose. Risks somewhat skewed to the upside. Resistance at 1.2910, 1.2970 (21 DMA). Support at 1.2820, 1.2740 levels. Sell rallies preferred.”

USD/SGD fell sharply, driven by USD decline and RMB strength. Pair was last at 1.2851.

SGD strength may continue to stay

“Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell into oversold conditions. We still caution for rebound risks. Support here at 1.2820, 1.2740 levels. Resistance at 1.2910, 1.2990 (21 DMA).”

“We had shared that the recent uptick in core CPI for Aug may well suggest that it is premature for MAS to ease policy stance at Oct MPC unless MAS switches from inflation fighting mode to supporting growth. As such, SGD strength may continue to stay with us for a little longer, especially if USD softness presses on.”

USD/SGD continued to trade in a subdued range near recent low. Pair was last at 1.2885, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

SGD to continue staying strong

“Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose. Rebound risks not ruled out in the near term. Support here at 1.2870. Resistance at 1.30 (21 DMA), 1.31 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.88% above our model implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2895.”

“Core CPI for Aug re-accelerated. For the first 8 months of the year, core CPI is at 3%. This may suggest that it is premature for MAS to ease policy stance at Oct MPC unless MAS switches from inflation fighting mode to supporting growth.

“SGD strength may continue to stay with us for a little longer, especially if USD softness presses on.”