CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could trade in a choppy manner between 0.5965 and 0.6015. In the longer run, weakness in NZD from early last month has ended; it is likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Weakness in NZD from early last month ends

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we expected NZD to trade in a range between 0.5950 and 0.5990. NZD then traded in a 0.5960/0.5999 range. It closed at 0.5962 but rose above 0.6000 in early Sydney trade today. The volatile price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, NZD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 0.5965 and 0.6015.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in NZD early last month. As we tracked the decline, in our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (30 Oct, spot at 0.5970), we indicated that ‘There is still no clear increase in downward momentum and the chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high.’ While NZD subsequently dropped below 0.5950, it rebounded quickly from 0.5940. In early Sydney trade today, it rose to 0.6010. Although our ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6010 has not been clearly breached, downward momentum appears to have faded. In other words, the weakness in NZD has ended. NZD has likely entered a range trading phase and is expected to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6040 for now.”

• NZD/USD jumps to the weekly highs near 0.6000 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The US presidential election uncertainty weighs on the USD and supports NZD/USD.  
• More dovish stance from the RBNZ might cap the Kiwi’s upside. 

The NZD/USD pair rises to near 0.6000 during the early European session on Monday. The weaker Greenback provides some support to the pair. Investors will closely monitor the looming US presidential election on Tuesday for fresh catalysts. This key event could trigger the volatility in the market.  

The decline in the US Dollar (USD) is likely due to a poll released over the weekend that reduced the probability of Republican Donald Trump winning the elections. Analysts predict that if Trump wins, the USD will rise. Chris Weston, an analyst at broker Pepperstone, said, "A Trump presidency with full control of Congress could be most impactful, as one would expect a solid sell-off in Treasuries resulting in a spike higher in the USD." 

Analysts believe potential uncertainty surrounding the election outcome will not impact the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision-making process on Thursday. The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter-point at the November meeting, following a half-point cut in September.

The upside of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might be limited due to the rising bets of a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The markets have fully priced in a 50 basis point rate cut in November and currently estimate the reduction in the cash rate from 4.75% to 3.82% by the end of this year.

The New Zealand (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5950 and 0.5990. In the longer run, there is still no clear increase in downward momentum; the chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high

24-HOUR VIEW: “NZD dropped briefly to 0.5940 yesterday, then rebounded to close at largely unchanged at 0.5978 (+0.09%). The brief decline did not result in any increase in downward momentum, and instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade in a range between 0.5950 and 0.5990 today.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in NZD early last month. As we tracked the decline, in our most recent narrative from two days ago (30 Oct, spot at 0.5970), we indicated that ‘While NZD dropped to a fresh 3-month low of 0.5954, there is still no clear increase in downward momentum.’ We added, ‘The chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high.’ Yesterday, NZD dropped below 0.5950, but rebounded quickly from 0.5940. Although NZD broke below the 0.5950 support level, there has been no further increase in momentum. In other words, we continue to hold the view that a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high. Overall, only a breach of 0.6010 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the weakness has stabilised.”

• NZD/USD remains steady due to an unexpected increase in its largest trading partner China's factory activity.
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in October, up from September’s 49.3, surpassing the expected 49.7 reading.
• The US Dollar breaks its four-day losing streak as market caution persists amid uncertainty ahead of upcoming US presidential election.

NZD/USD remains stable for the third consecutive session, trading around 0.5980 during the Asian hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may have gained some support from an unexpected increase in China's factory activity, as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in October, up from 49.3 in September, exceeding market expectations of 49.7. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted Building Permits from Statistics New Zealand showed a 2.6% month-on-month increase in new construction permits for September, following a 5.3% decline in August.

However, the Kiwi Dollar may face challenges due to a heightened likelihood of a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), especially after inflation returned to the central bank's target range. The markets have fully priced in a 50 basis point rate cut in November and currently project a decrease in the cash rate from 4.75% to 3.82% by the end of this year.

The US Dollar (USD) breaks its four-day losing streak due to ongoing market caution amid uncertainty leading up to the upcoming US presidential election. However, the Greenback encountered difficulties as the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index indicated that core inflation rose by 2.7% year-over-year in September.

However, Initial Jobless Claims fell to a five-month low of 216,000 for the week ending October 25, signaling a resilient labor market and reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Traders are awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report set for release on Friday. The US economy is projected to have added 113,000 jobs in October, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

• NZD/USD prints a fresh over 11-week low below 0.5950 as the US Dollar rebounds.
• The US Dollar bounces back in the aftermath of the lower US Initial Jobless Claims data.
• Investors expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates further this year by 50 bps to 4.25%.

The NZD/USD pair refreshes a more than 11-week low slightly below 0.5950 in North American trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back after the release of the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending October 25. The initial reaction from the US Dollar was bearish after the data release, however, it recovers quickly as claims came in surprisingly lower than expected.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against ix major currencies, rebounds from the day’s low of 103.80 and turns flat, at the time of writing.

Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were lower at 216K against estimates of 230K and the former reading of 228K. This has diminished fears of labor demand slowing in the near term. On Wednesday, unexpectedly upbeat ADP Employment Change data also pointed to an improvement in the job market. The agency reported that 233K workers were hired by the private sector in October, significantly higher than 159K in September.

For more cues on the current labor market health, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published on Friday.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure on expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates gain by a larger-than-usual size of 50 basis points (bps) in its monetary policy meeting on November 27. This would push the Official Cash Rate (OCR) lower to 4.25%.

• NZD/USD may test the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.
• A drop in the 14-day RSI below 30 mark would indicate an oversold condition, potentially suggesting an upcoming upward correction.
• The pair may aim for the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 0.5920 level.

The NZD/USD pair extends gains for the second consecutive session, trading near 0.5980 during Thursday's European session. Daily chart analysis shows a bearish bias, with the pair moving within a descending channel. A breakout above this descending channel could signal a potential shift in momentum.

Further supporting this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, reinforcing the bearish sentiment for NZD/USD. Short-term momentum appears weak, indicating continued downward pressure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, hovers just above 30. A dip below this threshold would signal an oversold condition, potentially hinting at an impending upward correction for the NZD/USD pair.

On the downside, NZD/USD may approach the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5920. A decisive break below this support could drive the pair toward the next "pullback support" around the 0.5850 level.

On the resistance side, the initial hurdle for NZD/USD lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel, aligning with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6001, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6026. A sustained move above these EMAs could shift the pair to a short-term bullish stance, potentially targeting the psychological level of 0.6100.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD gains ground to around 0.5980 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• ANZ Business Confidence rose to 65.7 in October vs. 60.9 prior. 
• Investors await the US PCE inflation data on Thursday. 

The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.5980 on Thursday during the Asian trading hours. The upbeat New Zealand business confidence and Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data underpin the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD). 

New Zealand business confidence jumped further in October, rising to 65.7 from 60.9 in September, according to a survey by the ANZ bank. Despite the improvement in confidence, the markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) at a policy meeting next month. This, in turn, might drag the Kiwi lower against the Greenback. 

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Thursday that China’s Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.1 in October, up from 49.8 in September. This figure came in better than the expectation of 50.0. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2 in October versus 50.0 prior, below the consensus of 50.4. 

On the USD’s front, the economic readings have pointed to a resilient jobs market and economy, prompting traders to pare back their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with smaller interest rate cuts might lift the Greenback and cap the pair’s upside.

Investors will closely monitor the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index data on Thursday. On Friday, the employment data will be in the spotlight. "With the focus more on employment data, a strong non-farm payroll print would provide Fed ammunition for a December pause," said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management in Chicago.

The New Zealand dollar has capitalized on the moderate US Dollar weakness to regain some losses.
Weak job openings data in the US have raised concerns about the labour market and weighed on the US Dollar.
A break above 0.6000 would ease bearish pressure and bring 0.6060 into focus.

The New Zealand Dollar trimmed some losses on Wednesday, favoured by a somewhat lower US Dollar, with investors growing increasingly cautious ahead of US GDP and ADP employment figures.

Concerns about the US labour market are hurting the US Dollar

The weak US JOLTS job openings seen on Tuesday have scratched the image of a solid US labour market, keeping investors on their toes, ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The US focus today is on the Q3 GDP, which is expected to confirm solid economic growth. The ADP employment report, however, might overshadow these figures, as further downbeat news on employment will  likely hurt confidence in the US Dollar  

The technical picture remains bearish, but the positive reaction from 0,5960 suggests the possibility of a deeper correction. Immediate resistance is at 0.6000 ahead of 0.6060. Supports are 0.5950 and 0.5910.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 0.5955/0.5995. In the longer run, there is still no clear increase in downward momentum; the chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

NZD may test 0.5995 near term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, NZD fell to a low of 0.5958. Yesterday, when NZD was at 0.5985, we held the view that ‘instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade sideways between 0.5965 and 0.6005.’ Instead of trading in a range, NZD edged to a low of 0.5954. NZD rebounded from the low to close slightly lower at 0.5974 (-0.12%). The mild decline did not result in any increase in momentum, and we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways. Expected range for today: 0.5955/0.5995.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted on Monday (28 Oct, spot at 0.5985) that ‘the recent price action did not result in a significant increase in momentum, but the weakness in NZD has not stabilised.’ We added, ‘The next level to watch is 0.5950, and a breach of 0.6025 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the weakness that started early this month has stabilised.’ While NZD dropped to a fresh 3-month low of 0.5954 yesterday, there is still no clear increase in downward momentum. The chance of a sustained break below 0.5950 is not high. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.6010 from 0.6025.”

• NZD/USD moves downwards within a descending channel pattern, reinforcing a bearish bias.
• The nine-day EMA continues to stay below the 14-day EMA, adding to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
• The pair could target the lower boundary of the descending channel around the 0.5930 level.

The NZD/USD pair remains tepid for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 0.5970 during Wednesday's European session. Analysis of the daily chart shows a downward movement within a descending channel, indicating a bearish bias.

Adding to this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, further supporting the bearish sentiment for the NZD/USD pair. Short-term momentum appears weak, suggesting continued downward pressure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, currently hovers just above the 30 mark. A drop below this level would signal an oversold condition, potentially pointing to an upcoming upward correction for the NZD/USD pair.

On the downside, the NZD/USD pair could target the lower boundary of the descending channel around the 0.5930 level. A decisive break below this support might lead the pair toward the "pullback support" near 0.5850.

For resistance, the initial obstacle is the upper boundary of the descending channel, close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average around 0.6006, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6033. A sustained move above these EMAs could shift the NZD/USD pair to a short-term bullish stance, potentially aiming for the psychological level of 0.6100.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD softens to around 0.5970 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• The dovish stance of the RBNZ weighs on the Kiwi, but the additional China stimulus plans might cap its downside. 
• Investors will monitor the advanced US Q3 GDP, which will be published on Wednesday. 

The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive near 0.5970 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to weigh on the pair. Investors will take more cues from the advanced US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter and the US ADP Employment Change for October on Wednesday. 

Goldman Sachs analysts expect a possible more aggressive rate cut from the RBNZ. Goldman forecasts 50 bps rate cuts in both November and February, with an elevated risk of a 75 bps cut in November. The dovish outlook of the New Zealand central bank is likely to undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the near term. 

China is considering issuing around 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next years to revive its sluggish economy, per Reuters. The positive development surrounding China’s fresh stimulus measures might support the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The expectation of less aggressive rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year lifts the Greenback. Traders have priced in a nearly 98.4% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in the November meeting. 

The US Department of Labor showed on Tuesday that the JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September fell to its lowest level in three and a half years, missing expectations.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence for October registered the highest in nine months as perceptions of the labor market improved. Investors will shift their attention to the US Q3 GDP data on Wednesday ahead of the highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

• NZD/USD is steadily declining in what could be the final wave of a large zig-zag pattern. 
• It is not yet oversold and could reach lower lows given the bearish short and medium-term trends. 

NZD/USD is falling in what might be the C wave of a bearish ABC pattern which began life at the September 30 highs.

ABCs are zig-zag patterns in which waves A and C are usually of a similar length or a Fibonacci 61.8% of the other.

NZD/USD Daily Chart 

NZD/USD will probably fall to a target at 0.5911, the point where wave C is 61.8% of A. A break below the 0.5956 low would provide confirmation. 

It is possible it could fall all the way to the major support level at 0.5849 (August 5 low). A really bearish move could even see an extension to 0.5784, the point where wave C = A.

The outlook is supported by the fact that the pair is in a bearish short and medium-term downtrend and “the trend is your friend”. The Kiwi pair is, however, in a sideways long-term consolidation. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is not yet oversold (below 30) suggesting there could be more downside to come. When it reaches oversold traders will be advised to not add to their existing short positions. 

Instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade sideways between 0.5965 and 0.6005. In the longer run, there is no significant increase in momentum, but the weakness in NZD has not stabilised. The next level to watch is 0.5950, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The next level to watch is 0.5950

24-HOUR VIEW: “When NZD was at 0.5985 yesterday, we indicated that ‘as long as 0.6010 is not breached, NZD could dip below 0.5970 before stabilisation is likely.’ We also indicated that ‘the next support at 0.5950 is unlikely to come into view.’ NZD then fell to 0.5958, rebounding to close largely unchanged at 0.5981 (+0.04%). The rebound in oversold conditions and slowing momentum suggest that instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade sideways today, probably between 0.5965 and 0.6005.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (28 Oct, spot at 0.5985) still stands. As highlighted, while the recent price action did not result in a significant increase in momentum, the weakness in NZD has not stabilised. The next level to watch is 0.5950. On the upside, a breach of 0.6025 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6035) would mean that the weakness that started early this month has stabilised.”

• NZD/USD continues to depreciate within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a bearish bias.
• A drop in the 14-day RSI to the 30 level would indicate an oversold condition, potentially signaling an upcoming upward correction.
• The immediate barrier appears at the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 0.5940 level.

The NZD/USD pair continues its losing streak for a third consecutive session, trading near 0.5980 during Tuesday's European session. Daily chart analysis indicates the pair moves downward within a descending channel pattern, signaling a bearish bias.

Furthermore, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned below the 14-day EMA, reinforcing the ongoing bearish trend for the NZD/USD pair. Short-term price momentum remains weak, suggesting that downward pressure may persist.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, currently sits just above the 30 level. Should it fall below this threshold, it would indicate an oversold condition, potentially signaling a forthcoming upward correction for the NZD/USD pair.

On the downside, the NZD/USD pair may target the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 0.5940 level. A break below this support level could push the pair toward the "pullback support" around 0.5850.

For resistance, the initial hurdle lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel, near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.6016, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6043. A sustained break above these EMAs could shift the pair toward a short-term bullish bias, potentially setting up a move toward the psychological 0.6100 level.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD receives downward pressure as RBNZ is widely expected to deliver another 50-basis-point rate cut in November.
• The NZD could gain support from favorable results stemming from China's initiatives, its largest trading partner.
• The US Dollar appreciates as recent positive economic data reinforces expectations for nominal rate cuts by the Fed.

The NZD/USD pair steadies near 0.5980 during the Asian session on Tuesday after two days of losses. However, downside risks for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remain as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to deliver another 50-basis-point rate cut in its final policy meeting of the year in November, with markets even considering the possibility of a 75-basis-point cut.

On Monday, China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, announced plans to enhance countercyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies to foster economic recovery in the fourth quarter. Positive outcomes from these initiatives could bolster the NZD, considering China's importance as a key trading partner for New Zealand.

UOB Group’s FX analysts, Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observed that while there hasn't been a significant increase in momentum over the long term, the weakness in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has yet to stabilize. If the NZD does not breach the 0.6010 level, it could fall below 0.5970 before any stabilization occurs, with the next key level to monitor being 0.5950.

Read More: A dip below 0.5970 is possible – UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) strengthens as positive economic data from last week suggests ongoing resilience in the US economy. This bolsters expectations for nominal interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

Traders await the release of the preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and October's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which are expected to offer crucial insights into the timing and pace of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts. Additionally, PMI data from China will be closely monitored later in the week.

As long as 0.6010 is not breached, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could dip below 0.5970 before stabilisation is likely. In the longer run, there is no significant increase in momentum, but the weakness in NZD has not stabilised. The next level to watch is 0.5950, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The next level to watch is 0.5950

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated last Friday that NZD ‘could drift lower, but it is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5985.’ The anticipated decline exceeded our expectations, as NZD dropped to a low of 0.5975. Despite the decline, downward momentum has not increased that much. However, as long as 0.6010 (minor resistance is at 0.5995) is not breached, NZD could dip below 0.5970 before stabilisation is likely. The next support at 0.5950 is unlikely to come into view.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in NZD since early this month. In our latest narrative from last Thursday (24 Oct, spot at 0.6005), we indicated that ‘the potential for further declines could be limited.’ We also indicated that “the levels to watch are 0.5985 and 0.5970.” Last Friday, NZD fell to a low of 0.5975. Despite the decline, there is no significant increase in momentum. However, only a breach of 0.6035 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6060) would mean that the weakness has stabilised. The next level to watch is 0.5950.”

• NZD/USD has marked the three-month low at 0.5957 on Monday.
• The US Dollar appreciates due to market caution ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
• The RBNZ is widely anticipated to deliver another 50-basis-point rate cut in November.

NZD/USD trims its daily losses, trading around 0.5970 during the European hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) receives support due to market caution ahead of the upcoming US presidential election in November.

Over the past three weeks, allies of former President Donald Trump have faced at least 10 court defeats in key battleground states that could impact the outcome of the November 5 election between Republican candidate Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The downside risks for the NZD/USD pair is bolstered as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens as recent positive economic data from the United States (US) has fueled expectations for a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November.

The US Dollar receives support from the higher Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 104.30 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.12% and 4.28%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to implement another 50-basis-point rate cut in its final policy meeting of the year in November. Markets are even factoring in a potential 75-point cut.

Meanwhile, China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, announced on Monday that the country would increase countercyclical adjustments in its macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter, expressing confidence in achieving the 5% growth target. Any positive developments from these initiatives could boost the NZD, given China’s significance as a major trading partner for New Zealand.

• NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5970 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Expectation of slower pace of Fed rate reductions boosts the US Dollar. 
• Fresh stimulus policies from China might help limit the NZD’s losses. 

The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.5970 on Monday during the Asian trading hours. The firmer Greenback amid stronger US economic data and the less dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undermine the pair. 
 
Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, currently trades near a three-month top of 104.50. US rate futures have priced in a 97.7% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Data released by the US Census Bureau on Friday showed that Durable Goods Orders in the US declined by 0.8% in September, beating the estimation of a 1.0% decrease. Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% in September. Finally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in October, the highest in six months, better than the previous reading and the consensus.  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August and cut another OCR in October. The RBNZ is expected to deliver another 50 basis points (bps) reductions at its final monetary policy of the year on November 27, with markets pricing some risk of a 75-point move. This, in turn, weighs on the Kiwi against the USD. 

Traders will keep an eye on the additional fresh stimulus measures from Chinese officials to boost the economy. On Monday, China’s Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min stated that China will step up countercyclical adjustments of its macro policies to bolster economic recovery in the fourth quarter, which will lay a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% this year. Any positive developments from fresh plans could lift the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

• NZD/USD retreats further, dropping below 0.6000.
• Oversold RSI points to possible corrective bounce, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• The pair stands in lows since early August.

The NZD/USD currency pair has extended its downtrend, with bears maintaining a firm grip as selling momentum builds. During Friday's session, the pair fell by 0.60% to 0.5980, hitting lows not witnessed since August. In addition, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is about to complete a bearish crossover with the 100-day SMA which could add selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in oversold territory, currently at 30, indicating intense selling pressure. The RSI's downwards trajectory suggests that bearish momentum is likely to persist, matching the rising red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram. That being said, the RSI in oversold terrain might trigger a corrective bounce as sellers might start to run out of steam.

NZD/USD daily chart

Technically, the NZD/USD pair continues to trade below its key moving averages, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6100 and the 200-day SMA around 0.6150 creating significant resistance. These hurdles are capping the pair's potential for an upward rebound.

Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5930, 0.5900.

Resistance levels: 0.6000,0.6050, 0.6100.