CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure vs the US Dollar (USD); it could edge lower but is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5715. In the longer run, a breach of the strong support at 0.5715 would indicate that 0.5790 is out of reach, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

NZD/USD can edge lower

24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to 'trade sideways between 0.5735 and 0.5770' yesterday. NZD then rose to 0.5770, dropped to 0.5730, before closing at 0.5733 (-0.17%). Downward momentum has increased slightly. Today, NZD is likely to edge lower, but given the mild momentum, any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5715. The mild downward pressure would remain intact provided that NZD remains below 0.5760 (minor resistance is at 0.5745)."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "NZD rose sharply last Thursday. In our update from last Friday (21 Feb, spot at 0.5760), we indicated, 'the boost in upward momentum suggests the major resistance level is back in sight.' Yesterday (Monday), NZD rose to 0.5770 but fell from the high. From here, a breach of 0.5715 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 0.5790 is out of reach."

• NZD/USD drifts higher to near 0.5735 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• China’s stimulus plans and stronger New Zealand’s Retail Sales support the Kiwi. 
• Trump’s tariff threats might cap the upside for the pair. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5735 during the early European session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens after China’s latest action plan showed it’s trying to boost foreign investment. 

Last week, Chinese authorities published an action plan to make it easier for foreign capital to invest in domestic telecommunication and biotechnology industries. The Commerce Ministry emphasized that the action plan would be implemented by the end of 2025 and that details on subsequent supportive measures would come soon. The positive developments surrounding China’s stimulus plans underpin the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The stronger-than-expected New Zealand’s Retail Sales might lift the Kiwi. The country’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.9% QoQ in the fourth quarter (Q4), the strongest gain in three years, compared to the previous reading of 0% (revised from -0.1%), according to Statistics New Zealand on Monday. This reading came in stronger than the 0.6% expected. 

On the other hand, the uncertainty and concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans might boost the safe-have flows, benefitting the Greenback. US President Donald Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada would proceed as planned.  

• NZD/USD declines amid sour market sentiment after Trump announces to proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the US central bank requires more clarity before contemplating interest rate cuts. 
• The PBOC injected CNY300 billion through the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), keeping the rate steady at 2%. 

The NZD/USD pair continues its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5730 during Asian hours on Tuesday. This depreciation comes amid a downbeat market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s announcement to proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Late Monday, President Trump stated that sweeping US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico “will go forward” when the month-long delay on their implementation ends next week. He claimed that the United States (US) has “been taken advantage of” by foreign nations and reiterated his plan to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs.

The US Dollar (USD) has faced challenges due to disappointing US economic data, including Jobless Claims and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released last week. Adding to the uncertainty, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Monday that the US central bank needs greater clarity before considering interest rate cuts.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY300 billion on Tuesday via the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), maintaining the rate at 2%. Additionally, the PBOC injected CNY318.5 billion through seven-day reverse repos at 1.50%, consistent with the prior rate. Given the close trade relationship between China and New Zealand, any shifts in the Chinese economy could impact the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be limited as the New Zealand Dollar may have found support from China’s release of its annual policy statement for 2025 on Sunday. The statement outlines strategies to advance rural reforms and promote comprehensive rural revitalization. Furthermore, China’s state-backed developers are increasing land purchases at premium prices, spurred by the government’s relaxation of home price restrictions to revive the struggling property market.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.5735 and 0.5770. In the longer run, boost in momentum suggests the major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight

24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Thursday, NZD surged by 1.02% (0.5763). On Friday, we pointed out that 'the sharp and swift rise appears overdone, and while there is scope for NZD to rise further, it is unlikely to reach 0.5790.' NZD subsequently rose to 0.5772 and then eased off. The current price action is likely part of a sideways trading phase, probably between 0.5735 and 0.5770."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (21 Feb, spot at 0.5760) remains valid. As indicated, 'the boost in upward momentum suggests the major resistance level is back in sight.' Overall, only a breach of 0.5715 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the advance from the middle of the month has ended."

• NZD/USD could target the two-month high at 0.5794.
• The 14-day RSI stays above the 50 level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
• The nine-day EMA at 0.5721 level appears as the immediate support.

The NZD/USD pair maintains its gains around 0.5750 during European trading hours on Monday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a bullish market outlook, as the pair continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, strengthening the bullish outlook. Moreover, the NZD/USD pair stays positioned above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating robust short-term momentum.

On the upside, the NZD/USD pair could target the two-month high at 0.5794, reached on January 24, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.5810 level. A break above this critical resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and lead the pair to approach the three-month high at 0.5922, last seen on December 3.

The NZD/USD pair could find immediate support at the nine-day EMA at 0.5721, followed by a 14-day EMA at 0.5707 level. Further support region appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 0.5700 level.

A break below the channel would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to navigate the region around 0.5516, its lowest point since October 2022, recorded on February 3.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD drifts higher to near 0.5760 in Monday’s early European session, up 0.31% on the day.
• China’s plan to revitalize the agriculture sector and boost consumption lifts the China-proxy Kiwi. 
• The downbeat US PMI data undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for the pair. 

The NZD/USD pair gains momentum to around 0.5760 during the early European session on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) attracts some buyers after the Chinese government announced its annual policy statement for 2025 on Sunday. Later on Monday, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January will be released. 

China will deepen rural reforms to revitalize the agriculture sector and strengthen food security in the face of US tariffs, an economic slowdown, and climate change, according to the State Council’s annual rural policy blueprint. Additionally, Premier Li Qiang said last week that China will direct more efforts to boosting consumption and lifting people's livelihoods. The positive development surrounding China’s stimulus plans supports the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The disappointing US economic data, including the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released last week, weighs on the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for NZD/USD. The US Composite PMI fell to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in the previous month. 

Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 versus 51.2 prior, surpassing the forecast of 51.5. The Services PMI dropped to 49.7 in February, compared to 52.9 in January, below the market consensus of 53.0. The reports kept the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) intact this year, even though the Fed will remain on hold for the next several months.

(This story was corrected on February 24 at 07:22 to say that China’s plan to revitalize consumption lifts the Kiwi, not the Aussie.)

• NZD/USD strengthens as Retail Sales rose 0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024, marking the strongest growth in three years. 
• China’s annual policy statement highlights plans to advance rural reforms and drive comprehensive rural revitalization. 
• The US Dollar weakens amid disappointing US economic data released last week. 

NZD/USD recovers recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5750 during the Asian hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened following the release of domestic Retail Sales data, which rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024 — the strongest increase in three years — after a revised flat reading in the previous period and surpassing forecasts of 0.6%.

The Chinese government released its annual policy statement for 2025 on Sunday. The statement outlines plans to advance rural reforms and promote comprehensive rural revitalization. Growing optimism around China’s stimulus measures could further boost the NZD and the NZD/USD pair, given China’s importance as a major trading partner for New Zealand.

However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Friday instructing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (US) to limit Chinese investments in strategic sectors. Reuters cited a White House official saying that the national security memorandum seeks to encourage foreign investment while safeguarding US national security interests from potential threats posed by foreign adversaries like China.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, depreciates below 106.50 at the time of writing. The DXY faced challenges following the downbeat S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released last week.

The US Composite PMI fell to 50.4 in February, down from 52.7 in the previous month. In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, surpassing the forecast of 51.5. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, falling short of the expected 53.0.

Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today. In the longer run, boost in momentum suggests the major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight

24-HOUR VIEW: "Following NZD choppy price action two days ago, we indicated yesterday that 'the outlook is mixed.' We expected NZD to 'trade in a 0.5675/0.5725 range.' However, NZD soared to 0.5767, closing sharply higher by 1.02% at 0.5763. The sharp and swift rise appears overdone, and while there is scope for NZD to rise further, it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today. Support is at 0.5745; a breach of 0.5730 would indicate that the current strong upward pressure has eased."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD on Monday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' Yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 0.5700), we noted that 'upward momentum has slowed, and a breach of 0.5675 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate 0.5790 is not coming into view.' NZD subsequently soared to 0.5767. The slowing momentum received a boost, and the major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.5715 from 0.5675."

• NZD/USD struggles as New Zealand posted a trade deficit of NZD 486 million in January.
• The New Zealand Dollar could face challenges as Governor Orr indicated more rate cuts in the coming months.
• US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000 in the previous week, surpassing the expected 215,000.

NZD/USD holds loses following approximately 1% gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5760 during the Asian hours. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) loses ground following domestic Trade Balance data released on Friday.

New Zealand recorded a trade deficit of NZD 486 million in January 2025, reversing from December’s revised surplus of NZD 94 million (previously NZD 219 million). Goods exports declined to NZD 6.19 billion from NZD 6.67 billion, while imports rose to NZD 6.8 billion from NZD 6.62 billion.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted on Friday, “Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecasts indicate another 75 basis points (bps) easing.” Governor Adrian Orr indicated earlier that additional rate cuts are likely in the coming months as inflation eases, with policymakers aiming to support the weakening economy.

However, the NZD/USD pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14 increased to 219,000, surpassing the expected 215,000. Continuing Jobless Claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just under the forecast of 1.87 million.

Additionally, the NZD/USD pair saw gains amid improved market sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced potential progress in trade negotiations with China, easing market concerns over tariffs.
 

• NZD/USD trades with mild gains near 0.5765 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• US Initial Jobless Claims came in weaker than expected last week. 
• Trump tariff threats could drag the Kiwi lower. 

The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.5765 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by the softer US dollar (USD). Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which is due later on Friday. 

The weaker-than-expected US Initial Jobless Claims weigh on the Greenback. Data released by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 15 rose to 219K, compared to the previous week's revised tally of 214K (from 213K). This figure came in above the market consensus of 215K.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% at the latest policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signaled that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months amid moderating inflation as policymakers sought to boost a struggling economy. ING analysts said, “NZD is benefiting from seeing the end of the easing cycle sooner than previously thought.”

However, the concern about US tariffs US President Trump’s tariff threats might exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi. On Wednesday, Trump said that he would announce fresh tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

• NZD/USD jumps to 0.5765 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since January.
• The RSI climbs to 62, nearing overbought territory but still signaling room for further gains.
• MACD histogram shows rising green bars, indicating sustained bullish momentum and potential for continued upside.

The NZD/USD pair staged an impressive rally on Thursday, climbing 1.03% to close at 0.5765, marking its highest point since January. Buyers regained control, building on recent momentum as the pair looks poised to retest the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands as the next major resistance level.

Technical indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged to 65, edging closer to overbought territory but still offering room for additional upside before triggering exhaustion signals. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to print rising green bars, highlighting sustained buying pressure and strengthening momentum.

Looking forward, a successful break above the 100-day SMA, currently around 0.5805, could open the door for further gains, potentially extending the bullish trend. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 0.5700, with a drop below this level potentially triggering a deeper correction. However, with indicators still favoring buyers, the near-term bias remains tilted to the upside.

NZD/USD daily chart

Outlook is mixed; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5675/0.5725 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run,  upward momentum has slowed; a breach of 0.5675 would indicate that 0.5790 is not coming into view, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Breach of 0.5675 to indicate that 0.5790 is not coming into view

24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to “trade sideways between 0.5690 and 0.5730” yesterday. Our view was incorrect as it fluctuated between 0.5678 and 0.5730, closing little changed (0.5705, +0.02%). The outlook is mixed after the choppy price movements. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5675/0.5725 range."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD on Monday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that “the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.” NZD then rose to 0.5750 but has not been able to build on its gains. Upward momentum has slowed, and a breach of 0.5675 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate 0.5790 is not coming into view. Note that NZD dropped briefly to 0.5678 yesterday."

• NZD/USD rises to near 0.5730 as the US Dollar weakens amid an upbeat market mood.
• Growing optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
• The RBNZ cut its OCR by an outsize rate for the third time in a row.

The NZD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.5730 in European trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) sliding marginally below the key level of 107.00.

The US Dollar weakens as the risk sentiment seems favorable for risk-sensitive currencies. The risk-on mood is the outcome of investors turning confident over the potential Russia-Ukraine truce. Market participants have become more hopeful for an end to the three-year-long war in Ukraine after United States (US) President Donald Trump agreed to have more peace talks with Russia.

President Trump announced that he will also meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin before the end of this month.  Positive developments in Russia-US peace talks are expected to weaken the appeal of safe-haven assets.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January meeting show that officials hesitate to cut interest rates as Trump’s economic policies are expected to boost inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) performs strongly as market participants had already priced in that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% on Wednesday. The RBNZ reduced its OCR by an outsize rate for the third time in a row, with officials remaining worried about moderating inflation and a fragile economy.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has guided that the central bank could slow down its policy-easing pace and reduce interest rates by 25 bps in the next two policy meetings.

• NZD/USD softens to around 0.5695 in Thursday’s Asian session.
• China’s central bank kept benchmark lending rates steady.
• Trump tariff threats could lift the US dollar and create a headwind for NZD/USD.

The NZD/USD pair trades on a negative note around 0.5695 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Traders brace for the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the CB Leading Economic Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reports, which are due later on Thursday. 

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%. The Chinese authorities prioritize financial stability over interest rate easing to bolster the economy.

The Kiwi remains under selling pressure on the dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% at its February meeting on Wednesday. The central bank signaled further reductions in borrowing costs amid moderating inflation as policymakers sought to boost a struggling economy. 

Meanwhile, the fresh US President Donald Trump tariff threats could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Greenback in the near term. Since the inauguration last month, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, on top of existing tariffs of up to 25%. Late Tuesday, Trump said that he would likely impose tariffs of around 25% on foreign cars, while semiconductor chips and drugs are set to face higher duties.

• NZD/USD edges higher to 0.5705 on Wednesday, trading within a tight range following the RBNZ policy decision.
• Bears tested the 20-day SMA, but buyers defended the level, keeping downside risks contained for now.
• Momentum indicators remain flat but hold in positive territory, leaving room for a potential retest of support.

The NZD/USD pair traded with limited volatility on Wednesday, rising slightly to 0.5705 as the market digested the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest policy decision. Despite the subdued price action, sellers attempted to push the pair below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but strong buying interest at that level prevented further declines.

Technical readings suggest indecision, with momentum indicators reflecting a neutral stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains flat at 56 but holds in positive territory, suggesting that bullish momentum is intact despite the lack of immediate upside traction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, reinforcing the view that the pair is consolidating rather than trending decisively.

Looking ahead, while buyers successfully defended the 20-day SMA support, a retest cannot be ruled out. A sustained break below this level could shift sentiment in favor of the bears, exposing further downside risks. On the flip side, if the pair stabilizes above 0.5700, the next upside target could be the 100-day SMA near 0.5825, which would signal renewed bullish control.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD surrenders some intraday gains but is still positive despite RBNZ’s dovish monetary policy guidance.
• The RBNZ sees two more interest rate cuts in the next two meetings but at a slower pace of 25 bps.
• Investors await FOMC minutes for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.

The NZD/USD pair gives up nominal gains after posting an intraday high around 0.5730 in North American trading hours on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair is still more than 0.1% higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy outcome.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is outperforming its peers even though the RBNZ reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.25% and guided a dovish monetary policy outlook. The central bank was already expected to continue easing the monetary policy with a bigger cut due to moderating inflationary pressures and a fragile economic outlook. The RBNZ also reduced its OCR by a larger-than-usual pace of 50 bps in the last two policy meetings.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the board is seeing a lower terminal rate than what it had projected in November. Orr guided two more 25 bps interest rate cuts in the April and May policy meetings.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release for the January meeting, which will be published at 19:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, moves higher to near 107.15.

Investors will pay close attention to the FOMC minutes to get cues about how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates. The Fed paused the monetary policy expansion cycle last month after reducing interest rates by 100 basis points (bps) in 2024.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.5690 and 0.5730. In the longer run, price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Price action suggests further NZD strength

24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for NZD to 'trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745' yesterday was incorrect as it dipped to a low of 0.5695. The drop lacks momentum, and instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade sideways between 0.5690 and 0.5730 today."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD on Monday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' While NZD subsequently rose to 0.5750, it has since eased off from the high. Momentum has slowed somewhat, but as long as 0.5675 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still scope for NZD to strengthen."

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rate by 50bp to bring OCR to 3.75%. This is widely expected. Its economy slipped into a technical recession in 3Q, with service sector showing a faster rate of contraction in Dec while manufacturing activity was in contraction territory. Consumer confidence, business confidence and activity outlook indicators were also lacklustre. NZD was last at 0.5727 levels, OCBC's FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

NZD may be forming a base

"That said, recent data in Jan saw a pick-up in manufacturing and services sector. MPS also noted that economic growth is expected to recover during 2025. Lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some of our key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues. Employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers."

"At the press conference, Governor Orr guided for further cuts, of about 50bps by mid-July but indicated that the series of larger-than-usual interest rate cuts has come to an end. He is looking at a 25bp cut each in Apr and May. NZD fell first on policy decision as MPS continued to guide for easing bias – scope to lower the OCR further through 2025 if economic conditions evolve as projected. But NZD erased losses after Governor Orr signalled an end to the larger-than-usual magnitude of rate cuts and to revert to 25bp cuts instead."

"The OCR forecast table also indicated rates to bottom around 3.1% later this year. An end in sight for RBNZ’s rate cut cycle may imply that NZD may be forming a base, assuming the tariff impact is not overly drastic and China’s recovery finds better footing. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI eased. Consolidation likely. Support at 0.5655/75 levels (21, 50 DMAs). Resistance at 0.5750, 0.5810 (100-DMA)."

• NZD/USD rose despite RBNZ’s decision to lower the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points from 4.25% to 3.75%.
• RBNZ Governor Orr indicated that the Official Cash Rate forecast suggests a 50 basis point reduction by mid-year.
• The US Dollar remains subdued as Treasury yields fall ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

NZD/USD retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading near 0.5720 during European hours on Wednesday. However, the pair faced challenges following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75%.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr delivers prepared remarks on the policy statement and addresses media questions at the post-meeting press conference. Orr said that the OCR path forecasts a 50 bps reduction by mid-year, likely around July, in two 25 bps increments. The economy has substantial spare capacity, making rate cuts in April and May appropriate.

However, the NZD/USD pair’s upside could be restrained amid rising risk sentiment following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. According to Bloomberg, Trump stated on Tuesday that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on foreign cars, with higher duties also expected on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. He indicated that an official announcement could come as soon as April 2.

The NZD/USD pair gains support as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid falling Treasury yields, despite ongoing caution regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Investors await the release of the FOMC Minutes later in the North American session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has edged lower to around 107.00. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields stand at 4.30% for the 2-year note and 4.54% for the 10-year note at the time of writing.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that while US economic conditions remain positive, the outlook for rate cuts in 2025 remains uncertain. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reinforced the need for a steady interest rate policy, citing persistent inflation concerns.