CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

• NZD/USD could test key support at the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5560.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
• The pair may target initial resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5654.

The NZD/USD pair loses ground following the previous session’s gains, trading around 0.5610 during European trading hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish bias, with the pair trending lower within a descending channel.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, reinforcing the negative outlook. Additionally, NZD/USD continues to trade beneath the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weak short-term momentum.

On the downside, a decisive break below the psychological support level of 0.5600 could push the pair toward the key support at 0.5560, the lower boundary of the descending channel. A further decline below this level may intensify selling pressure, potentially dragging NZD/USD to 0.5516—its lowest level since October 2022, recorded on February 3.

Conversely, a recovery could see the pair targeting initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654, followed by the descending channel’s upper boundary at 0.5680 and the 50-day EMA at 0.5691. A breakout above the channel would weaken the bearish sentiment and open the door for further gains toward the three-month high of 0.5794, reached on January 24. 

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.5600 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
• China is preparing countermeasures against fresh US import tariffs set to take effect on Tuesday.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than the expectation, falling to 50.3 in February vs. 50.9 prior.

The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.5610 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid concerns about an escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China, the world's top two economies.

China's state-backed Global Times reported early Tuesday that China’s Commerce Ministry vowed to take “necessary countermeasures” to safeguard China’s legitimate rights and interests. The ministry reiterated its firm opposition to the US move to impose another 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting on Tuesday. The escalating trade tensions exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

On the USD’s front, soft US economic data for the manufacturing sectors released Monday could undermine the Greenback and cap the downside for the pair. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 50.3 in February versus 50.9 prior. This figure came in below the market consensus of 50.5.

Later on Tuesday, traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas Barkin and John William are set to speak. The attention will shift to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4), which will be released on Wednesday. 

• NZD/USD edged higher, pausing its five-day losing streak, but gains remain limited.
• After losing the 20-day SMA and reaching its lowest level since mid-February, the pair stabilized as selling pressure eased.
• Resistance is seen at 0.5680, while support lies near 0.5580; indicators suggest a fragile recovery.

NZD/USD posted a mild gain on Monday after a prolonged losing streak, as the pair found some stability following its recent sell-off. Despite the brief upside move, the broader trend remains bearish, with the pair trading well below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The downtrend has been reinforced by technical signals, suggesting that any bullish attempt might face strong resistance.

Momentum indicators highlight the fragility of the recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning higher but remains in negative territory, indicating that selling pressure is not yet fully exhausted. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, a bearish development that hints at continued downside risks.

From a technical perspective, the pair now faces immediate resistance at 0.5680, aligning with the 20-day SMA. A sustained move above this level could provide some breathing room for the bulls. On the downside, support emerges near 0.5580, a level that, if breached, could accelerate declines toward the 0.5540 region.

NZD/USD daily chart

NZD/USD is heavy near 0.5600, BBH FX analysts report.  

A higher terms of trade raises the fundamental value of NZD

"New Zealand’s terms of trade index overshot expectations rising 3.1% q/q in Q4 (consensus: 1.4%) vs. 2.5% in Q3 to the highest level since Q2 2022. A higher terms of trade has a positive net wealth effect on the economy and raises the fundamental value of NZD." 

"Nonetheless, NZD needs to keep trading at a deep discount to fundamental equilibrium (which we estimate at around 0.6600) to attract foreign investments and recycle the country’s large current account deficit (-6.4% of GDP)."

Instead of weakening further, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is more likely to trade in a 0.5585/0.5630 range. In the longer run, room for NZD to continue to weaken; it remains to be seen if 0.5565 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 

Room for NZD to continue to weaken

24-HOUR VIEW: "When NZD was at 0.5630 in early Asian trade last Friday, we noted that 'although deeply oversold, NZD could decline further.' However, we held the view that '0.5590 is likely out of reach for now.' NZD weakened more than expected, reaching a low of 0.5587. Conditions remain deeply oversold. This, combined with slowing momentum suggests that instead of weakening further, NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.5585/0.5630 range." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (27 Feb, spot at 0.5700), we highlighted that 'downward momentum is beginning to build, and if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645.' After NZD dropped sharply, we highlighted last Friday (28 Feb, spot at 0.5630) that 'the price action suggests further NZD weakness, and the level to monitor is 0.5590.' NZD then dropped to 0.5587. While we continue to see room for NZD to weaken, it remains to be seen if the next support level at 0.5565 is within reach. On the upside, a breach of 0.5670 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.5685 last Friday) would indicate that NZD is not weakening further."

• NZD/USD may test the key support at the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5570.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains below 50, reinforcing the pair’s bearish outlook. 
• The pair could target the initial resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5662.

The NZD/USD pair holds ground after registering a six-day losing streak, trading around 0.5600 during European trading hours on Monday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a bearish market bias, as the pair moves downwards within a descending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, strengthening the bearish outlook for the pair. Moreover, the NZD/USD pair stays positioned below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating weaker short-term momentum.

On the downside, a successful break below the psychological level of 0.5600 would lead the NZD/USD pair to test the crucial support at the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.5570 level. A break below this support zone could reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the psychological level of 0.5700 level. Further support appears around 0.5516, its lowest level since October 2022, recorded on February 3.

The NZD/USD pair could target the primary barrier at a nine-day EMA of 0.5662, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5696, which is aligned with the descending channel’s upper boundary. A break above the channel would weaken the bearish sentiment and support the pair to explore the region the three-month high at 0.5794, reached on January 24.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD rose as recent PCE inflation data eased concerns over unexpected US inflation spikes.
• The NZD receives support from stronger China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 prior.
• President Trump’s additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is set to take effect on Tuesday.

NZD/USD halted its six-day losing streak, trading around 0.5600 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair gains value as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the release of January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday. The report met expectations, easing concerns about unexpected inflation spikes in the US.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, loses ground after three consecutive sessions of gains, hovering around 107.30 at the time of writing. However, downside pressure on the Greenback may be limited as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields currently at 4.01% and 4.23%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains support following recent economic data from China, a key trading partner. Data released Monday showed China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, surpassing market expectations of 50.3.

On Saturday, official data revealed that the NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2 in February from 49.1, beating the forecast of 49.9. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI also climbed to 50.4 from 50.2, exceeding the expected 50.3.

However, the NZD's upside may be capped by rising global trade tensions. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting Tuesday, adding to last month’s 10% tariff. On Thursday, Trump stated on Truth Social that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods will take effect on March 4.

Although deeply oversold, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline further, but 0.5590 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, NZD could weaken further; the level to monitor is 0.5590, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

NZD can weaken further

24-HOUR VIEW: "After NZD fell to a low of 0.5689 on Wednesday, we indicated yesterday (Thursday) that it 'could decline further.' However, we noted that NZD 'does not seem to have enough momentum to break and remain below 0.5680.' However, NZD not only broke clearly below 0.5680 but also dropped further to 0.5630. Although deeply oversold, AUD could decline further. That said, the major support at 0.5590 is likely out of reach for now. On the upside, any recovery is likely to remain below 0.5665 (minor resistance is at 0.5645)."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (27 Feb, spot at 0.5700), we highlighted that 'downward momentum is beginning to build, and if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645.' We did not quite expect NZD to easily break below both 0.5680 and 0.5645. The price action suggests further NZD weakness, and the level to monitor is 0.5590. Overall, the downward pressure would remain intact as long as NZD does not break above 0.5685 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.5755 yesterday)."

• NZD/USD struggles due to rising concerns over global trade tensions and domestic monetary policy.
• The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose to 96.6 in February, slightly higher than January’s 96.0.
• Traders adopt caution ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

NZD/USD continues its losing streak that began on February 21, hovering around 0.5600 during early European trading on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces downward pressure despite a private survey indicating a slight rise in consumer confidence for February, as concerns over global trade tensions and domestic monetary policy persist.

The ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence inched up to 96.6 in February from 96.0 in the previous month. However, economic outlook perceptions for the next 12 months declined to -16%, while expectations for house price inflation saw a modest increase.

The NZD/USD pair weakens as the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid heightened fears of a global trade war. US President Donald Trump reaffirmed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, alongside an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports due to ongoing drug trafficking concerns.

Further exacerbating trade tensions, Trump imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods, adding to the 10% levies introduced on February 4 in response to the fentanyl opioid crisis, bringing the total tariff to 20%. Any further tariff threats from the US could pressure the China-linked NZD, given China’s role as New Zealand’s primary trading partner.

Investors now turn their attention to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, set for release later in the day.

• NZD/USD faces some selling pressure to around 0.5620 in Friday’s early Asian session, down 0.20% on the day. 
• Trump vowed March 4 tariffs for Mexico, Canada and an extra 10% for China over fentanyl. 
• The US economy grew at a 2.3% annualized pace in Q4, matching estimates.

The NZD/USD pair extends its decline to near 0.5625 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariffs exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Later on Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for January will be in the spotlight. 

Trump on Thursday said his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports because deadly drugs are still pouring into the US from those countries. 

Trump added the new tariffs on Chinese goods will be added to the 10% tariffs he imposed on February 4 in response to the fentanyl opioid epidemic, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff. Any signs of renewed US tariff threats could drag the China-proxy Kiwi lower as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed on Thursday that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. This figure matched the initial estimate and came in line with the market expectation. The Greenback edged higher in an immediate reaction to the GDP data.

• NZD/USD faces some selling pressure to around 0.5620 in Friday’s early Asian session, down 0.20% on the day. 
• Trump vowed March 4 tariffs for Mexico, Canada and an extra 10% for China over fentanyl. 
• The US economy grew at a 2.3% annualized pace in Q4, matching estimates.

The NZD/USD pair extends its decline to near 0.5625 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariffs exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Later on Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for January will be in the spotlight. 

Trump on Thursday said his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports because deadly drugs are still pouring into the US from those countries. 

Trump added the new tariffs on Chinese goods will be added to the 10% tariffs he imposed on February 4 in response to the fentanyl opioid epidemic, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff. Any signs of renewed US tariff threats could drag the China-proxy Kiwi lower as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed on Thursday that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter. This figure matched the initial estimate and came in line with the market expectation.

• NZD/USD continues to slide, marking its fifth consecutive daily loss with sharp downside pressure.
• The pair loses the 20-day SMA while the MACD crosses below its signal line, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
• Key support lies at 0.5600, while resistance is seen at 0.5680 and the 20-day SMA.

NZD/USD extended its downward momentum on Thursday, registering a fifth straight session of losses and hitting its lowest level since mid-February. The selling pressure intensified after the pair failed to hold above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and plunging towards 0.5630, signaling a deeper correction. Bears remain in control, pushing the price further into negative territory.

Technical indicators reflect the growing bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is firmly in negative territory and declining, suggesting that sellers maintain the upper hand. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, a sign that downside momentum is strengthening. The histogram prints flat green bars, indicating a temporary pause in momentum but not a shift in trend.

Looking ahead, immediate support is located at 0.5600, a level that could act as a short-term floor. A decisive break below this could open the door toward 0.5550. On the upside, the first resistance is at 0.5680, aligning with the recent intraday peaks, followed by the 20-day SMA, which needs to be reclaimed for the pair to regain bullish traction.

NZD/USD daily chart

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline further vs US Dollar (USD), but it does seem to have enough momentum to break and remain below 0.5680. In the longer run, if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

NZD can decline towards 0.5645

24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for NZD to 'trade in a range of 0.5715/0.5755 range' yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, NZD fell to 0.5689. Today, NZD could decline further, but it does not seem to have enough momentum to break and remain below 0.5680. The major support at 0.5645 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the upside, resistance levels are at 0.5715 and 0.5735."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted two days ago (25 Feb, spot at 0.5735) that 'the current price movements are part of a 0.5680/0.5780 range.' Yesterday, NZD fell to a low of 0.5689, closing at 0.5697, lower by 0.39%. Downward momentum is beginning to build, and if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645. To sustain the buildup in momentum, NZD must not break above 0.5755."

• NZD/USD weakens as the US Dollar gains strength amid persistent uncertainty over US trade policies.
• The US Dollar strengthens due to risk-off sentiment and rising US Treasury yields.
• ANZ Business Outlook Index climbed to 58.4 in February, signaling increased optimism about New Zealand’s economic recovery.

NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 0.5680 during the European session on Thursday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid uncertainty over US trade policies, driven by US President Donald Trump’s vague pledges to impose tariffs on Europe and continued delays on planned levies for Canada and Mexico.

The Greenback strengthens amid increased risk aversion and rising US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, maintains its position above 106.50, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.10% and 4.29%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated late Wednesday that the Fed should maintain current interest rates to continue applying downward pressure on inflation, according to Bloomberg. Bostic noted the need for more data to determine if January’s inflation was a temporary bump or the start of a trend. He emphasized that Fed policy remains restrictive and should stay that way.

On Thursday, Lu Lei, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), suggested that the central bank take a more active role in supporting fundraising efforts, including issuing special treasury bonds, to help major state-owned banks bolster their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital. Any shifts in China’s economy could influence the NZD, given the close trade relationship between China and New Zealand.

In New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook Index rose to 58.4 in February 2025, up from January’s five-month low of 54.4. This marks the first increase in four months, reflecting growing optimism about the economy’s recovery, driven by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices.

• NZD/USD softens to near 0.5695 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Fresh US tariff threats could undermine the China-proxy Kiwi. 
• The preliminary reading of the US Q4 GDP report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. 

The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.5695 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The tariff uncertainty from US President Donald Trump weighs on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Investors brace for the preliminary reading of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4), which is due later on Thursday. 

Trump has already raised tariffs on Chinese goods and has threatened to impose sweeping trade actions, including a 25% border tax on goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as new "reciprocal" tariffs for each country. Trump has also ordered an investigation into copper imports, which could lead to potential tariffs on the metal. Any signs of renewed US tariff threats could drag the China-proxy Kiwi lower as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

Furthermore, the expectation of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might contribute to the NZD’s downside. "Our base case is the RBNZ will cut by 25bp at each of the following two meetings, in April and May," said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.

On the other hand, the weakening of the US Dollar (USD) due to the slow of softer US economic data might help limit the pair’s losses. US consumer confidence fell the most since August 2021, declining to 98.3 in February versus 105.3 prior, according to the Conference Board. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Thursday. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman, Beth Hammack and Patrick Harker are set to speak. These remarks might offer some hints about the US interest rate path this year. 

• NZD/USD posts a four-day losing streak and approaches the 20-day SMA.
• RSI trends lower in negative territory, reflecting a decline in bullish momentum.
• The pair is down by more than 1% over the week.

The NZD/USD pair continued its decline on Wednesday slightly below 0.5700, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss as sellers remained in control. The pair has now erased the majority of last week’s gains and is approaching a key technical threshold, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which could determine the next directional move.

Technical indicators are turning increasingly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining and approaching negative territory, suggesting that buyers are struggling to regain traction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, indicating a slowdown in upward momentum rather than a decisive shift towards renewed strength.

If the pair breaches the 20-day SMA, it could confirm a bearish outlook, potentially leading to further downside. However, if buyers manage to defend this support level, a corrective bounce may materialize. Market participants will be closely watching price action around this technical barrier for clues on the next move.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD slides further to near 0.5700 as the US Dollar gains ground recovering from the 11-week low.
• A green signal to US President Trump’s tax cut plan has supported the US Dollar.
• The RBNZ reduced its OCR by 50 bps to 3.75% last week, as expected.

The NZD/USD extends its losing spree for the fourth trading day on Wednesday and slides to near the key level of 0.5700 in European trading session. The Kiwi pair weakens further as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back after revisiting the 11-week low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 106.50.

The Greenback discovers demand after the United States (US) House of Representatives approved US President Donald Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax cut plan with a narrow majority. Investors expect the Trump’s tax agenda would be inflationary for the economy. Such a scenario would force Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

In the meantime, Fed dovish bets for the June policy meeting have escalated after the release of the weak US flash S&P Global PMI data for February released on Friday.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms since Friday post the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement on February 19 in which the central bank reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75%, as expected, but guided a cautious stance on further monetary easing.

NZD/USD rebounds strongly from the support zone plotted around 0.5500 on a weekly timeframe. However, the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5776 continues to remain a hurdle for the pair.

The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) attempts to return inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI fails to do the same.

The Kiwi pair could decline to near round-level supports of 0.5400 and 0.5300 if it breaks below the 13-year low of 0.5470.

On the flip side, a decisive break above the February 21 high of 0.5773 could drive the pair to the December 10 high of 0.5867, followed by the November 29 high of 0.5930.

NZD/USD weekly chart

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range of 0.5715/0.5755. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5680/0.5780 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Current price movements are likely part of a range

24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday: 'Downward momentum has increased slightly. Today, NZD is likely to edge lower, but given the mild momentum, any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5715.' However, NZD declined more than expected to 0.5707. Despite the decline, there has been no further increase in downward momentum. Instead, upward momentum has increased slightly, indicating that NZD is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.5715/0.5755 today."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (25 Feb), when NZD was at 0.5735, that 'a breach of 0.5715 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 0.5790 is out of reach.' NZD then fell to a low of 0.5707. From here, we view the current price movements as part of a 0.5680/0.5780 range."

• NZD/USD depreciates as traders adopt caution as the February consumer confidence report looms.
• China’s Vice Commerce Minister has met with US business leaders to discuss tariffs.
• The Trump administration plans to tighten chip export controls on China.

NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 0.5720 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders remain cautious ahead of New Zealand’s February consumer confidence report due Friday, while the official PMI reading from key trading partner China is expected over the weekend.

Market focus stays on the interest rate outlook following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent rate cut. Strong retail sales data reinforced expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts, supporting the RBNZ’s view that future reductions would likely be smaller and the easing cycle was nearing its end.

Attention also turns to potential updates from China’s Ministry of Commerce on talks between China’s Vice Commerce Minister and US business leaders regarding tariffs. A Bloomberg report on Tuesday revealed that the Trump administration plans to tighten chip export controls on China — a key trading partner for New Zealand. The US is reportedly considering stricter restrictions on Nvidia chip exports and additional limitations on Chinese firms like SMIC and CXMT.

The NZD/USD pair struggles amid rising risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump stated late Monday that broad US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico “will go forward” after the current month-long delay ends next week. Trump claimed the US had “been taken advantage of” by foreign countries and reaffirmed his intent to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Investor sentiment toward New Zealand remains under pressure, given the economy’s reliance on resource exports and its sensitivity to global trade war risks.