CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

• NZD/USD plunges below 0.5850 amid dismal risk tone and firm RBNZ dovish bets.
• The US Dollar edges higher ahead of the US NFP data for November.
• Economists estimate the US jobless rate to have accelerated to 4.2%.

The NZD/USD pair plummets below the key support of 0.5850 in European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair plunges as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens across the board amid firm expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will follow an aggressive policy-easing approach.

The RBNZ reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in its monetary policy meeting on November 27 and guided for similar rate cut pace if economic conditions continue to evolve as projected. Traders are also confident the RBNZ will cut its OCR again by 50 bps to 3.75% in the February policy meeting.

Meanwhile, cautious market mood ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release has also weighed on the Kiwi dollar. S&P 500 futures exhibit a subdued performance in European session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher from the key support of 105.70.

The US NFP data will influence market expectations about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in the policy meeting on December 18. The Fed has already reduced its key borrowing rates by 75 bps in its meetings in September and November.

Economists expect the US economy added 200K fresh workers, significantly higher than 12K in October. Payrolls were significantly lower last month as some industries were affected by the hurricanes and there were labor strikes at Boeing plants. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.2% from the former release of 4.1%.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.5860/0.5900. In the longer run, NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5830/0.5930 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

NZD can test the 0.5830 support near term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected NZD to ‘trade in a 0.5830/0.5890 range.’ NZD then traded between 0.5849 and 0.5887, closing at 0.5885. Although the underlying tone appears to have firmed slightly, this is likely to lead to a higher trading range of 0.5860/0.5900 instead of a sustained rise.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (05 Dec, spot at 0.5860) is still valid. As highlighted, although NZD dropped to a low of 0.5830 two days ago, there does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly below 0.5830.” We continue to hold the view that NZD “is expected to trade in a 05830/0.5930 range.”

• NZD/USD meets with a fresh supply amid a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment.
• The USD languishes near a multi-week low, though it does little to lend any support to the pair.
• Traders look to the US NFP report for cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path and a fresh impetus. 

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday and erodes a part of the previous day's modest gains. Spot prices  drop to a daily low, around the 0.5860 region in the last hour, as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for some meaningful impetus heading into the weekend. 

The closely watched US monthly jobs data could provide some cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and drive the NZD/USD pair. In the meantime, the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields keeps the USD bulls on the defensive near a multi-week low. That said, bets for a less dovish Fed, along with a softer tone across the global equity markets, act as a tailwind for the buck and weigh on perceived riskier currencies, including the Kiwi. 

Investors seem convinced that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation and force the Fed to stop cutting rates. Moreover, the recent hawkish remarks from several FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggest that the US central bank will adopt a more cautious stance. This, along with persistent geopolitical risk, weighs on investors' sentiment. Apart from this, bets for aggressive policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) support prospects for further weakness in the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action over the past three weeks or so might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Furthermore, the lack of any meaningful buying and negative oscillators on the daily chart validates the near-term bearish outlook for the NZD/USD pair. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. 

• NZD/USD rises 0.40% on Thursday, approaching 0.5890.
• The pair remains capped by the 20-day SMA, limiting bullish momentum.
• Technical indicators show slight improvement but no clear reversal signals.

The NZD/USD pair edged higher on Thursday, gaining 0.15% to trade near 0.5890. Despite this upward move, the pair continues to face strong resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level that remains unconquered and keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside.

Technical indicators are offering a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has gained some ground, moving closer to neutral levels, suggesting slight easing of selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly more positive, with green bars hinting at improving momentum. However, neither indicator provides clear signals of a sustained reversal, keeping traders cautious.

For the bulls to regain control, NZD/USD needs to decisively break above the 20-day SMA, which is currently acting as a key resistance level. Until this level is reclaimed, the outlook will remain bearish. On the downside, any renewed selling pressure could push the pair back towards support at 0.5860 and the psychological 0.5800 level.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD rebounds to near 0.5880 as weak US Services PMI weighs on the US Dollar.
• Fed Powell said officials can afford to be cautious on interest rate cuts.
• The RBNZ is expected to cut its OCR by 50 bps in its first policy meeting of 2025.

The NZD/USD pair bounces back to near 0.5880 in Thursday’s European session after a three-day losing spree. The Kiwi pair rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) drops due to weaker-than-expected United States (US) ISM Services PMI data for November.

Wednesday’s Services PMI data showed that activities in the services sector expanded at a slower-than-expected pace to 52.1 from 56.0 in October. Economists expected the Service PMI at 55.5.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near the key support of 106.00.

Going forward, the next move in the USD will be guided by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Friday. Economists expect that the US economy added 200K fresh workers. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.2% from 4.1% in October.

The official labor market data will significantly influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate path. Meanwhile, the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday indicated that officials could have the comfort of becoming cautious on interest rate cuts, assuming that the economic growth is stronger than what the central bank had anticipated in September.

In the New Zealand (NZ) region, the expectations of more large-size interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would keep the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) outlook bearish. The RBNZ has already reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.25% and is expected to cut by 50 basis points (bps) in its policy meeting on February 19.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5830/0.5890 range. In the longer run, NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5830/0.5930 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Bulls can test 0.5890 near term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for NZD to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, NZD dropped to 0.5830, recovering to close lower by 0.52% at 0.5852. Despite the decline, there has been no significant increase in momentum. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5830/0.5890 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 0.5895), wherein ‘the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase,’ and NZD is expected to ‘trade between 0.5840 and 0.5950.’ Although NZD broke below 0.5840 yesterday and dropped to a low of 0.5830, downward momentum has not increased much. NZD must close and stay below 0.5830 before a sustained decline can be expected. Currently, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly below 0.5830. Meanwhile, we continue to expect NZD to trade in a range, albeit within a lower range of 0.5830/0.5930.”

• NZD/USD drifts higher to near 0.5865 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• Fed Chair Powell said a strong US economy is letting the central bank be cautious about cutting interest rates. 
• The rising expectation of further rate cuts by the RBNZ might weigh on the Kiwi.

The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to around 0.5865 amid a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the weakening of the Greenback might be limited amid the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

Financial markets anticipate the US Fed to reduce its benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point from its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The Fed policymaker cut a combined three-quarters of a point at its September and November meetings. However, several Fed officials have expressed some concern about the recent uptick in the inflation rate, indicating a cautious approach to policy as they watch the data. This, in turn, might lift the USD and act as a headwind for the pair. 

The Fed’s Beige Book survey released on Wednesday suggested that US economic activity increased slightly in November after little change in preceding months, and US businesses grew more upbeat about demand prospects. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is in better shape than expected, allowing Fed officials to potentially slow the pace of interest-rate cuts ahead.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr signalled the likelihood of further monetary easing in the near future. The dovish remarks from the RBNZ policymaker and lacklustre domestic economic data undermine the Kiwi. Traders have priced in a nearly 68% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in February 2025. 

 

• NZD/USD falls for a third consecutive session, settling near 0.5830.
• Bulls failed to reclaim the 20-day SMA, intensifying bearish momentum.
• Indicators show deepening negative signals, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The NZD/USD pair extended its losses on Wednesday, marking a three-day losing streak as it continued to drift lower, closing near 0.5850.

The inability to regain the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) highlights the pair’s struggle to find sustained bullish momentum. Technical indicators point to mounting downside risks, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping further into negative territory, currently at 34, nearing oversold levels and signaling sustained selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has deepened in the red, with a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line, underscoring intensifying bearish momentum.

With the technical outlook firmly bearish, the pair faces immediate support at 0.5850, with further downside risks toward the 0.5820 level. On the upside, reclaiming the 20-day SMA remains critical for any bullish recovery, but current conditions suggest that such a move remains unlikely in the near term.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Momentum indicators are mostly flat; the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.5950, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

NZD to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.5950

24-HOUR VIEW: “We stated yesterday that NZD ‘is under mild downward pressure.’ While we expected it to edge lower, we were of the view that ‘any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5840.’ However, instead of edging lower, NZD traded quietly between 0.5865 and 0.5905. NZD closed modestly lower by 0.10% at 0.5882. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5860/0.5900 range today.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 0.5895), wherein ‘the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase.’ We expected NZD to “trade between 0.5840 and 0.5950.” There is no change in our view.”

• NZD/USD drops to a one-week low following the release of softer Services PMI from China.
• US-China trade war fears and a modest USD uptick further contribute to the intraday fall.
• Traders look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for some meaningful impetus.

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price move and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, manage to rebound a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around mid-0.5800s, down over 0.50% for the day.

A private survey released earlier today showed that China’s services sector grew less than expected in November, which adds to worries about the fragile recovery in the world's second-largest economy. In fact, China's Caixin Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.5 in November from 52.0 in the prior month. This comes on top of new US export curbs on China and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's impending tariffs, which, in turn, weigh heavily on antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. 

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to draw support from the upbeat US data released on Tuesday, which eased fears of a significant slowdown in the labor market. Adding to this, expectations that Trump's expansionary policies will boost inflation might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take a cautious stance on cutting rates. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the safe-haven Greenback and exerts additional downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this Wednesday. Apart from this, the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday should offer fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside.

• NZD/USD drops 0.10% on Tuesday, settling around 0.5880.
• Bulls failed to sustain the break above the crucial 20-day SMA, pushing NZD/USD back below it again.
• Indicators display mixed signals with hints of a bullish recovery.

The NZD/USD pair retreated on Tuesday's session, giving up the initial gains after reaching a daily high of 0.5890, just above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair fell back below this crucial short-term moving average and settled around 0.5880, down 0.10% on the day. /p>

Despite retreating from its intraday high and displaying a slight downward bias, technical indicators for NZD/USD there are some signs of bullish presence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which indicates buying and selling pressure, has begun to recover with a mildly increasing slope, suggesting that buying pressure is gaining ground. Conversely, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a momentum indicator, has a declining histogram with a greenish tint, indicating that buying pressure is gradually decreasing. This mixed signal suggests a potential shift in market sentiment towards the upside.

That being said, the trailing technical outlook remains bearish, with the pair needing to reclaim the 20-day SMA to shift the momentum in favor of the bulls. Until that happens any signs of a bullish recovery may be invalidated

NZD/USD daily chart

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure; it could edge lower, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5840. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.5950, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5840 and 0.595

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, NZD edged to a high of 0.5928. Yesterday, we pointed out, ‘despite the advance, there has been no increase in momentum.’ We held the view that NZD ‘is expected to trade in a 0.5880/0.5920 range.’ However, NZD dropped to a low of 0.5865, closing at 0.5888 (-0.61%). There has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, we expect NZD to edge lower, but as downward momentum is not strong, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5840 (there is another support level at 0.5860). On the upside, should NZD break above 0.5915 (minor resistance is at 0.5895), it would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 0.5895). As indicated, the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. For the time being, NZD is likely to trade between 0.5840 and 0.5950.”

• NZD/USD attracts some sellers to near 0.5880 in Tuesday's Asian session. 
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.4 in November vs. 47.5 expected.
• Trump's tariff threats continue to undermine the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair loses traction to around 0.5880 on Tuesday during the Asian trading hours. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens amid the US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats of further tariffs. Investors await the US JOLTs Job Openings for October, which are due later on Tuesday, along with the speeches from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee. 

Federal Reserve officials on Monday emphasized the need to continue lowering interest rates over the next year, but they did not commit to making the next rate cut later this month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s inclined to vote to lower borrowing costs when Fed members meet on December 17-18 but noted that data released before then might support the case for keeping rates unchanged.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday that US manufacturing improved more than expected in November but continued to indicate a contraction. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November versus 46.5 in October, beating the 47.5 expected. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which might offer some hints about the labor market condition and the US interest rate outlook. The US economy is expected to see 195K jobs added in November. 

On the Kiwi front, Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.  The tariffs could lead to a global trade war and might weigh on the NZD, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. 

• NZD/USD sank by 0.69% on Monday to trade near 0.5885.
• Bulls failed to secure the 20-day SMA after breaking above it, risking the bullish bias.
• Indicators took a step back and might continue losing ground if they do not secure the 20-day SMA.

The NZD/USD pair extended its weakness from a fresh monthly high recorded in the previous week. In Monday's session, the NZD/USD declined by 0.69% to 0.5885. Bulls failed to secure the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after breaking above it, risking the bullish bias.

Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair indicates a sideways range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46, suggesting rising selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flat and green, indicating flat buying pressure. Overall, the outlook is mixed, with support levels at 0.5850, 0.5800, and 0.5750, and resistance levels at 0.5900, 0.5950, and 0.6000.

Technical indicators for the NZD/USD pair have taken a step back, signaling a potential shift in momentum. While the pair remains within a range, the failure of bulls to hold above the 20-day SMA poses a risk to the bullish bias. Traders should monitor the mentioned levels as a loss of the 0.5850 area could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD softens to near 0.5895 in Monday’s European session. 
• China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI grew more than expected in November. 
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due later on Monday. 

The NZD/USD pair trades on a softer note around 0.5895 on Monday during the Asian trading hours. The expectation of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February 2025 and Trump tariff threats continue to undermine the pair. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November will be in the spotlight later on Monday. 

The RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr hinted during the press conference last week that another double cut would be possible in February 2025, citing the context of growth in New Zealand. This, in turn, drags the Kiwi lower against the US Dollar (USD) for the time being. Furthermore, Trump has pledged a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. The tariffs could lead to a global trade war and may impact the New Zealand economy as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.

Data released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global showed on Monday that the Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November versus 50.3 in October, beating the estimation of 50.5. However, the upbeat economic data failed to boost the NZD against the USD amid the cautious mood. 

Traders await the fresh catalysts from the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Monday, which is forecasted to improve to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in October. Later this week, the Fed speakers might offer some hints about the US interest rate policy outlook, along with the US employment report for November. 

• Friday's session saw NZD/USD rally 0.61% to trade around 0.5930.
• Price action shows recent gains and a recovery to the 20-day SMA, indicating potential for a reversal.
• Indicators look promising and approaching positive areas so the pair may see further upside.

The NZD/USD pair surged by 0.61% on Friday's session, continuing the recovery from last week's lows and reaching 0.5930.

The pair has resumed its upward trajectory, fueled by positive technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved near positive territory at around 49, signaling increasing buying pressure and bullish sentiment. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator displays a rising green histogram, further confirming the bullish momentum.

The Kiwi's pair's recent rally has seen it conquer the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.5905, signaling potential for a bullish reversal. However, the lingering bearish crossover between the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.6060 raises concerns about the sustainability of the gains. Positive technical indicators, including the RSI and MACD, suggest buying pressure is rising and support bullish momentum..

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD clings to recovery above 0.5900 triggered by the US Dollar’s correction.
• Investors await a string of US employment-related economic indicators.
• This week, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps to 4.25%.

The NZD/USD pair holds gains above the round-level support of 0.5900 in Friday’s European session. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its correction after diving below the key support of 106.00 and posts a fresh two-week low near 105.60. However, it manages to recover some losses but is on track to close the week with an almost 1.5% decline.

The US Dollar (USD) weakens as the investors trim so-called ‘Trump Trades’ after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent to fill the position of Treasury Secretary. Market participants expect Bessent to execute Trump-stated trade policies strategically and gradually with an intention to avoid a lethal trade war.

Going forward, investors will focus on a slew of US employment-linked data and the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data for November, which will be released next week. The array of economic data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy action in December.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the December meeting is 66% while the rest supports leaving them unchanged.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) performs strongly even though market participants expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut interest rates again by 50 bps in its next monetary policy meeting in February 2025 after reducing by the same margin on Wednesday.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr kept doors for an outsize interest rate cut open but the decision will depend on economic conditions. Orr was confident about a further decline in inflationary pressures.

• NZD/USD tests the descending channel’s upper boundary at the 0.5920 level.
• The bullish sentiment would be confirmed once the 14-day RSI breaks above the 50 mark.
• 14- and nine-day EMAs at 0.5892 and 0.5883, respectively, act as immediate supports.

NZD/USD recovers from its recent losses, trading around 0.5910 during the Asian session on Friday. A closer look at the daily chart suggests a potential shift in momentum from a bearish to a bullish bias, as the pair has broken above the descending wedge pattern. Simultaneously, another descending channel pattern has formed, and a breakout above this channel would further strengthen the bullish outlook.

Additionally, NZD/USD has moved above both the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating strength in short-term price momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, suggesting that the prevailing bearish sentiment is still in play. A move above the 50 level would confirm a shift to bullish sentiment. 

On the upside, NZD/USD is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern at the 0.5920 level. A break above this level could pave the way for the pair to target the psychological 0.6000 level, followed by minor resistance at 0.6038. 

Immediate support for NZD/USD lies at the 14- and nine-day EMAs at 0.5892 and 0.5883, respectively. A break below these levels could exert downward pressure on the pair, with the next key "throwback support" level of 0.5850, followed by a two-year low at 0.5772, last seen in November 2023.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD declined to 0.5895 on Thursday.
• Pair rejected at 20-day SMA and indicators lost some steam, but may have momentum to conquer the SMA.
• As long as the pair holds below the 20-day SMA, the outlook for the short-term will be negative.

The NZD/USD declined slightly in Thursday's session, reaching a low of 0.5895, before recovering some ground. Overall, the momentum seems to be mixed. The pair has been in a downtrend since late September, and the short-term outlook remains negative as long as it remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The technical indicators present conflicting signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 47, indicating that it is in negative territory and suggests that selling pressure is present. On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is green and rising, indicating that buying pressure is rising. This divergence suggests that while there may be some selling pressure, there is also significant buying interest in the market.

Despite facing resistance at the 20-day SMA, NZD/USD maintains momentum from recent gains, with indicators suggesting both buying and selling pressure present. However, the downward trend continues as long as the pair remains below the mentioned SMA. When American traders return from Thanksgiving’s holiday, the pair may see further volatility which might set the direction of the pair.

NZD/USD daily chart