CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

• NZD/USD corrects to near 0.6000 as the US Dollar bounces back.
• Trump’s protectionist policies would keep the US Dollar’s downside limited.
• The RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates again by 50 bps.

The NZD/USD pair struggles to extend Thursday’s recovery move above 0.6050 and corrects to near the psychological support of 0.6000 in Friday’s European session. The Kiwi pair faces slight pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after a sharp correction on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back from 104.20.

The USD gains as market participants expect that US Donald Trump’s tight external policies would improve the overall productivity, business investment, and spending for the longer term. Trump promised to raise import tariffs by 10% universally, except China, which is expected to face even higher duties.

Meanwhile, the outlook of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak as poor labor demand has solidified speculation of another Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) larger interest rate cut in its policy meeting on November 27.

New Zealand Q3 employment data showed that the laborforce reduced by 0.5%, faster than estimates of a 0.4% decline. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.8%, slower than estimates of 5% but was higher than 4.6% in the second quarter of this year.

NZD/USD encounters offers after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.6023. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns above 40.00, suggesting that the bearish momentum has faded. However, the bearish bias remains intact.

More downside is highly likely towards the round-level support of 0.5900 and the April 19 low at 0.5850 if the pair breaks below the October 31 low of 0.5940.

On the flip side, a further recovery above the October 23 high of 0.6058 will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.6100 and the October 8 high of 0.6146.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD receives downward pressure due to the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.
• The NZD may appreciate as traders expect more stimulus measures from China as the NPC Standing Committee concluded its meeting.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank will continue evaluating economic data to guide future rate decisions.

NZD/USD depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives downward pressure from the concerns about Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, given that New Zealand is a close trading partner to China. The NZD/USD pair trades around 0.6010 during the Asian session on Friday.

However, investors are hopeful about potential stimulus measures from China as the National People’s Congress Standing Committee concluded its five-day meeting. Any positive change in the Chinese economy could positively impact the New Zealand markets.

The slight improvement in the US Treasury yields provides support for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against the other six major currencies, improves to near 104.50 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.20% and 4.33%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The NZD/USD pair rose by over 1% on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark overnight rate, setting a new target range of 4.50%-4.75% at its November meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that the US central bank will continue to monitor economic data to guide the "pace and destination" of future rate adjustments, noting that inflation is gradually easing toward the Fed’s 2% target. Investors are now focused on the upcoming preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, due on Friday.

• NZD/USD softens to around 0.6020 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• The 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed on Thursday was widely expected.
• Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs could drag the Kiwi lower against the USD. 

The NZD/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias near 0.6020 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns about Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs might cap the upside for the Kiwi in the near term. Investors await the release of advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is due later on Friday. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman is also set to speak. 

The US central bank trimmed interest rates by a quarter point, bringing the target rate range to 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed hints that another interest rate cut is likely coming, but the timing remains uncertain. The markets are now pricing in nearly 75% possibility the Fed will cut rates again in December, up from 69% on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool.

On the Kiwi front, traders speculate Trump will reset trade relations with China, headlining a 60% import tariff on all Chinese goods, which undermines the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Greenback as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

Additionally, the rising bets of an aggressive rate-cut cycle by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might contribute to the NZD’s downside for the time being. The RBNZ is expected to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bps in the November meeting, with a supersize 75 bps cut an outside possibility.

• NZD/USD falls in a three-wave ABC pattern with wave C reaching to within a pip of its downside target. 
• The MACD is turning higher in a bullish-looking turn which could signal a change in the trend cycle. 

NZD/USD has fallen in the C wave of a bearish ABC pattern which began life at the September 30 highs.  

ABCs are zig-zag patterns in which waves A and C are usually of a similar length or a Fibonacci 61.8% of the other.

NZD/USD Daily Chart 

NZD/USD fell to 0.5912 on November 6, one pip above the 0.5911 minimum estimated endpoint of wave C as 61.8% of the length of A. It is possible we can take this as the pair reaching its target given one pip lies within a margin of error, however, it is also still possible that it could still fall further and properly hit the downside target. 

In a really bearish scenario the Kiwi pair could even fall all the way to the major support level at 0.5849 (August 5 low). 

The pair remains in a bearish short and medium-term downtrend, and given the technical analysis theory that “the trend is your friend” it is biased to decline further. On a long-term basis the pair is in a sideways trending consolidation. 

The (blue) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator line is turning above its red signal line giving a fairly strong buy signal. This is a bullish signal and could indicate the short and medium-term trends are turning up, however, it is still too soon to be confident. If NZD/USD is about to turn higher it would be more or less in line with the pair reaching the floor of the long-term range.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop to 0.5900 before the risk of a more sustained recovery increases. In the longer run, NZD could drop to 0.5875 before a rebound is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

NZD can drop to 0.5875 before a rebound is likely

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘there is room for NZD to break the major support at 0.5940, but a clear break below this level is unlikely.’ NZD fell more than expected to 0.5912, recovering slightly to close at 0.5939 (-1.14%). Although downward momentum seems to have slowed, NZD could drop to 0.5900 before the risk of a more sustained recovery increases. The next support at 0.5875 is unlikely to be tested. Resistance level is at 0.5975, followed by 0.5995.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our NZD outlook from negative to neutral two days ago (04 Nov, spot at 0.5985), indicating that ‘the weakness in NZD from early last month has ended.’ We also indicated that NZD ‘has likely entered a range trading phase and is expected to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6040 for now.’ Yesterday, NZD broke clearly below 0.5940, reaching a fresh three-month low of 0.5912. Although the increase in momentum indicates further NZD weakness, conditions remain oversold due to the recent month-long decline. In other words, the potential of any weakness may be limited. Overall, as long as 0.6015 is not breached, NZD could drop to 0.5875 before a rebound is likely.”

• NZD/USD tests the 14-day Exponential Moving Average at the 0.6000 level.
• The 14-day RSI remains below the 50 level, indicating an ongoing bearish bias for the pair.
• The immediate support appears at the upper boundary of the descending channel, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 0.5984 level.

The NZD/USD pair has recovered its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 0.5990 during the European hours on Thursday. Daily chart analysis indicates a weakening bearish bias, with the pair breaking above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), aligned with the lower boundary of the descending channel.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains below the 50 level, suggesting a prevailing bearish trend. A further approach toward the 50 mark would improve the momentum of the NZD/USD pair.

Adding to this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average remains below the 14-day EMA, suggesting weakness in the short-term price momentum for the NZD/USD pair.

Regarding the resistance, the NZD/USD pair is testing the 14-day EMA at 0.6000 level. A break above this level would improve the price momentum and support the pair to explore the area around the psychological level of 0.6100 level.

On the downside, NZD/USD may find immediate support at the upper boundary of the descending channel, in case of re-entering the channel, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 0.5984 level.

A return into the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel near a psychological level of 0.5900.

A break below the descending channel could strengthen the bearish bias and lead the NZD/USD pair to revisit the throwback support at the 0.5850 level.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD attracts some buyers on Thursday amid a modest USD weakness.
• Elevated US bond yields should help limit the USD losses and cap the major. 
• The markets react little to Chinese trade data as the focus remains on the Fed.

The NZD/USD pair builds on the previous day's bounce from the 0.5910 region, or over a three-month trough and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains near the 0.5975-0.5980 area amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and move little following the release of Chinese trade data.

China's Trade Balance for October, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY679.1 billion, expanding from the previous figure of CNY582.62 billion, led by an 11.2% YoY rise in exports. This comes on the back of signs that China's big stimulus push is helping improve business conditions, which, in turn, offers some support to the NZD/USD pair. 

Meanwhile, the USD ticks lower amid some profit-taking following the previous day's blowout rally to its highest level since July 30 touched in reaction to Donald Trump’s comeback as the 47th President of the United States (US). This offers additional support to the NZD/USD pair, though a combination of factors should cap any meaningful upside. 

Investors turned optimistic amid hopes that Donald Trump's policies could push up growth and inflation. This could reduce the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and keep a lid on the NZD/USD pair. 

Moreover, expectations that Trump will slam fresh tariffs on China, along with bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), should contribute to capping antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. 

The Fed is scheduled to announce its policy decision later this Thursday and is widely expected to lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps). Market participants, however, will scrutinize Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for cues about the future rate-cut path, which might influence the buck and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair.

• NZD/USD drifts lower to near 0.5940 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump trades continue to underpin the US Dollar; the attention will shift to the Fed rate decision. 
• The rising bets of an aggressive RBNZ rate-cutting cycle might weigh on the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5940 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains intact as markets priced in a victory for former President Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

The firmer US Dollar (USD) is supported by Trump's victory in the US election. Trump is seen as a proponent of a strong Greenback and his stance is a factor in pushing US bond yields higher. Additionally, traders speculate Republican Trump's proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, which might exert some selling pressure on China-proxy NZD as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

Financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower its benchmark borrowing cost by a quarter percentage point at its October meeting on Thursday. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference as it might offer some hints about the interest rate outlook. The markets have priced in another quarter-point reduction in December, followed by a January pause and then multiple rate cuts through 2025.

Given the weakness of New Zealand’s economy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to deliver another interest rate reduction to stimulate growth. The rising expectation of the RBNZ aggressive rate-cutting cycle might drag the Kiwi lower against the USD. The RBNZ is anticipated to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bps in the final meeting of the year on November 27, with a supersize 75 bps cut an outside possibility.

• NZD/USD drops to fresh lows, technical bias bearish
• RSI below 35, MACD histogram rising red, indicating selling pressure
• Pair fell back to lows since August.

On Wednesday, the NZD/USD pair declined sharply by 1% to 0.5945, reflecting the strengthening US dollar across the board. This weakness suggests a shift in sentiment, as the New Zealand dollar has been unable to regain the key 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and fell back to lows since August.

The technical outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators. The RSI has remains deep in negative territory, reaching 35, and is declining sharply, suggesting that selling pressure is rising. The histogram of the MACD is red and rising, another sign of increasing selling pressure.

A break below 0.5950 could open the door to a test of 0.5900 and even 0.5850. On the other hand, a breakout above 0.6000 could pave the way for a move towards 0.6050 and 0.6100.

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD declines after Trump wins the US presidential election, boosting USD. 
• The Kiwi Dollar is further hampered by weak NZ labor market data showing a rise in joblessness. 
• NZD/USD could fall further if the policy trajectories of the two central banks diverge.

NZD/USD trades down by over three quarters of a percent in the 0.5940s as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board following the announcement that the Republican nominee Donald Trump won the US presidential election. 

In addition, the Republican party gained majorities in both the US Senate and US Congress. This will make it easier for Trump to implement his Dollar-positive economic agenda, including higher tariffs on foreign imports and overall lower taxes. 

The reason Trump’s policies are bullish for the Dollar is because they will likely lead to increased spending, higher prices and rising inflation. This, in turn, will probably delay the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates. Higher interest rates attract greater foreign capital inflows so are positive for the Greenback. 

New Zealand (NZ) employment data came out as the votes were being counted in the US and these showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.8% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2. That said the result was lower than the 5.0% expected. 

NZ Employment Change data declined by 0.5% in Q3, which was lower than the 0.4% decline forecast. The Labor Cost Index, a measure of wages, also fell below expectations, registering a 0.6% rise versus the 0.7% expected. ¡

The data will probably not change the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy – a major driver of NZD. Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac NZ, put the generally weak labor market and rise in joblessness down to, “more young people exiting the labor force, with study providing an outlet.”

NZ inflation declined to 2.2% in the September quarter, bringing it back inside the RBNZ’s target range of 1-3%. This prompted the central bank to lower its official cash rate (OCR) by a “double-dose” 50 basis points (bps) (0.50%) to 4.75% at its October meeting. This was the second consecutive rate cut from the bank and was as expected. 

Given the weakness of the NZ economy – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.2% in Q2 – and an overall long-term decline in demand from its largest trading partner China, the RBNZ is expected to implement further interest rate cuts to stimulate growth. This is likely to have a negative impact on NZD/USD going forward, particularly as the pace of Fed cuts slows down from Trump’s inflationary policies. 

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break below 0.5940; a sustained decline below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, weakness in NZD from early last month has ended; it is likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

Likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected NZD to trade in a 0.5955/0.5995 range yesterday. Instead of trading in a range, NZD rose to 0.6016, closing at 0.6008 (+0.58%). The sudden sharp sell-off earlier today has resulted in a mixed outlook. That said, there is room for NZD to break the major support at 0.5940 but a clear break below this level is unlikely.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our NZD outlook from negative to neutral two days ago (04 Nov, spot at 0.5985), indicating that ‘the weakness in NZD from early last month has ended.’ We also indicated that NZD ‘has likely entered a range trading phase and is expected to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6040 for now.’ There is no change in our view.”

• NZD/USD may approach the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern near 0.5900.
• An upward correction would be indicated if the 14-day RSI breaks below the 30 mark.
• The nine-day EMA at 0.5979 level may act as the immediate resistance.

The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5930 during Wednesday's early European session. Daily chart analysis indicates a bearish bias, with the pair positioning within a descending channel.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, approaches the 30 level. A break below the 30 mark would indicate an oversold situation for the NZD/USD pair and an upward correction in the near future.

Adding to this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, suggesting a weakness in the trend for the NZD/USD pair.

On the downside, NZD/USD may find its support around the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5910, followed by the psychological level of 0.5900 level.

A break below the latter could put downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to navigate the region around the throwback support at the 0.5850 level.

On the resistance side, the NZD/USD may test the nine-day EMA at 0.5977 level, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 14-day EMA at 0.5999 level.

A breakthrough above the descending channel pattern would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the NZD/USD pair to explore the region around the psychological level of 0.6100.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD falls as US Dollar receives support from Trump trade optimism.
• Exit polls indicate growing support for former President Trump’s bid to become the 47th President of the United States.
• New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate Q3 increased to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter.

NZD/USD depreciates by more than 1% as the US Dollar (USD) rises due to a Trump trade rally sparked by the favorable results for the Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The pair trades around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

As exit polls indicate growing support for former President Trump’s bid to become the 47th President of the United States (US), the market sentiment shifts in favor of the US Dollar, undermining the NZD/USD pair.

Early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%.

Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?

On Wednesday, Stats NZ released the Unemployment Rate for the third quarter (Q3) of New Zealand, which rose to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter. This figure was below the market consensus of 5.0% for the period. The Employment Change rate declined by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and by 0.8% year-on-year in Q3.

Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) as part of its easing cycle, which began in August. Markets are anticipating another 50 bps reduction at the final policy decision of the year on November 27, bringing the OCR down to 4.25%.

• NZD/USD faces some selling pressure to near 0.5970 in Wednesday’s Asian session, down 0.41% on the day. 
• The USD edges higher as Trump trades continue to rally.
• New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.8% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2. 

The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5970 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board as Trump trades climb. Investors will closely monitor the outcome of the US presidential election ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

Georgia is among the first states with available exit polls, indicating a favorable outcome for Trump. According to the Washington Post, Trump won around 10% more votes than Harris in the state, which has 16 electoral votes. Trump trades continue to rally as his odds improve. Analysts expect that the victory of Donald Trump could push the USD higher. Trump’s proposals to hike tariffs against major US trading partners would result in a stronger Greenback.

On the Kiwi front, data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday showed that the country’s Unemployment Rate in the third quarter (Q3) climbed to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter. The figure was below the market consensus of 5.0% in the reported period.

New Zealand’s economy contracted in the second quarter and is estimated to have shrunk further in the third quarter, triggering the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to continue cutting interest rates to revive growth. The New Zealand central bank decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) since it began an easing cycle in August. The markets expect another 50 bps cut at the final policy decision of the year on November 27, which would take the OCR to 4.25%.

• Technical indicators suggest a gradual recovery of buying pressure, but resistance at the 20-day SMA may hinder further gains.
• Indeed, the buyers got rejected at the mentioned average which made the pair trim daily gains.

The NZD/USD pair has resumed its choppy movement, with a an upward bias, after a brief dip below the 0.6000 support. The pair is currently trading around 0.5994, facing resistance at the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has capped further gains in recent sessions.

Technical indicators are recovering, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually recovering from oversold territory, indicating a recovery in buying pressure. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, suggesting that selling pressure is still dominant.

If the RSI continues to rise and the MACD turns positive, it could indicate a shift towards a bullish trend. Conversely, if the RSI falls back into oversold territory and the MACD continues to decline, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.

The pair is facing resistance at 0.6000, 0.6030, and 0.6040, while support is at 0.5960, 0.5930, and 0.5900. 

NZD/USD daily chart

• NZD/USD moves higher to near 0.6000 amid upbeat market sentiment.
• Traders see a tight competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the US presidential elections.
• Investors expect the RBNZ to reduce its interest rates again by 50 bps on November 27.

The NZD/USD pair climbs to near the psychological resistance of 0.6000 in North American trading hours on Tuesday. The Kiwi asset strengthens as the market sentiment turns cheerful with the United States (US) presidential elections taking center stage.

Traders remain uncertain over the likely outcome, with the latest polls showing a neck-to-neck competition between former President Donald Trump and their Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

The S&P 500 opens on a positive note, exhibiting decent demand for risk-sensitive assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls slightly to near 103.70.

Trump’s victory will be unfavorable for an economy like New Zealand, which is one of the leading trading partners of China. Trump vowed to levy a 60% import tariff on China if he wins, which will escalate risks to economic growth.

Though risk-on market mood has assisted a recovery in the kiwi dollar, its overall appeal remains weak as investors expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut its interest rates again by 50 basis points (bps) in its last monetary policy meeting of this year on November 27.

The NZ economy is in dire need of economic stimulus to diminish fears of a further slowdown in the economy and revive labor demand. For fresh cues about current employment status, investors await Q3 Employment data, which will be published on Wednesday. The labor market report is expected to show that the Unemployment Rate rose to 5% from 4.6% in the previous quarter.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade in a range, albeit a lower one of 0.5955/0.5995. In the longer run, weakness in NZD from early last month has ended; it is likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

May try to reach 0.6040

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected NZD to trade in a choppy manner between 0.5865 and 0.6015 yesterday. NZD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (0.5973/0.6016). Further range trading appears likely, even though the slightly softened underlying tone suggest a lower range of 0.5955/0.5995.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our NZD outlook from negative to neutral yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 0.5985), indicating that ‘the weakness in NZD from early last month has ended.’ We also indicated that NZD ‘has likely entered a range trading phase and is expected to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6040 for now.’ There is no change in our view.”

• NZD/USD may test the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern near 0.6000.
• The 14-day RSI offers confirmation of the ongoing bearish bias.
• The immediate support appears at a three-month low at 0.5939.

The NZD/USD pair halts its two days of losses, trading around 0.5990 during Tuesday's early European session. Daily chart analysis indicates a bearish bias, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains below the 50 level, confirming the ongoing bearish sentiment.

Adding to this outlook, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, reinforcing bearish sentiment for the NZD/USD pair. Short-term momentum remains weak, suggesting sustained downward pressure.

On the downside, NZD/USD may find its support around a three-month low at the 0.5939 level. A break below this level could lead the pair to test the lower boundary of the descending channel near 0.5910, followed by the psychological level of 0.5900 level.

On the resistance side, the NZD/USD tests the nine-day EMA at 0.5990 level, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 14-day EMA at 0.6010 level. A breakthrough above this level could support the pair to explore the region around the psychological level of 0.6100.

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

• NZD/USD edges lower to 0.5970 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• Markets are widely expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps when it announces its policy decision on Thursday. 
• The RBNZ stated the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough. 

The NZD/USD pair weakens to near 0.5970 on Tuesday during the Asian trading hours. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and the remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) weigh on the pair. Investors brace for the outcome of the US presidential election, which might trigger the volatility in the financial markets. 

The decline in the Greenback is likely due to a poll released over the weekend that reduced the probability of Republican Donald Trump winning the elections. Analysts said a Harris win might benefit the riskier currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a Trump victory could support the USD due to expected protectionist policies and higher inflation.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision, with markets widely anticipating that the US central bank will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 98% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% odds of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool. 

On the Kiwi front, the RBNZ noted on Tuesday that the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough, adding that geopolitical tensions are the key risk for the economy. The RBNZ began cutting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in August and stepped up the pace last month when it lowered the OCR by 50 bps to 4.75%. Most economists expect another 50 bps reduction on November 27.