Unstoppable Golden Rally

Gold prices have risen by 1.1% to $2,778 per troy ounce this week, hitting an all-time high of $2,789 on October 30, above the key resistance at $2,750-2,770 per ounce. If the current momentum continues, we could see another record high soon, with prices targeting $2,880, approximately 4.0% higher than current levels.

This upward trend may seem surprising, but large investors are already supporting this scenario. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) saw inflows of $99.3 million last week, following a significant $936.2 million inflow the prior week. Gold prices have gained 13.0% in one month, backed by a $1.2 billion investment, marking a consistent 15-week rise out of the last 17 weeks, with only one neutral and one negative week. These ongoing inflows highlight the determination of large investors to push prices higher. Even if there were a pullback, it would likely require weeks or even months to unwind positions in a balanced manner.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold to $2,900 per ounce by early 2025, up from a previous estimate of $2,700 per ounce. This extended rally is seen as the prevailing outlook, where even negative news might only slow, rather than reverse, the bullish momentum.

This week, eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Israel’s limited retaliatory action on Iran, along with better-than-expected October ADP Nonfarm Payrolls and a slowdown in U.S. GDP for Q2, have continued to support prices. If Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report disappoints, gold could break even higher this week, setting the stage for a test of $2,880.

Technically, the dominant upside factors suggest that, if gold holds above $2,770 per ounce, it could reach $2,860-2,880 by mid-December. Should this scenario unfold, further targets at $3,200-3,300 per ounce may come into play in 2025.