Tin tức thì trường

• WTI price receives some support from a drop in US crude oil inventories.
• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell by 0.573 million barrels in the previous week, against an expected 2.3 million-barrel increase.
• An Axios reporter stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would discuss a diplomatic resolution to the war in Lebanon.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price steadies around $67.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, following two days of declines. Crude Oil prices found support from a surprise drop in US crude oil inventories.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US weekly crude Oil stockpiles fell by 0.573 million barrels in the week ending October 25, contrary to expectations of a 2.3 million-barrel increase. The previous week's stock level was 1.643 million barrels. Investors now await the EIA crude oil stockpiles report, due Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Oil prices faced downward pressure after an Axios reporter stated on X that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would soon meet with several ministers and military and intelligence leaders to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the war in Lebanon, per Reuters.

However, the US plan to purchase Oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) provided some support for WTI prices. On Monday, the US announced intentions to acquire up to 3 million barrels for delivery by May next year. This purchase could deplete the remaining funds available for SPR replenishment until further funding is approved by Congress.

Crude Oil prices may encounter challenges as the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia, plans to begin easing its production cuts in December, aiming for an increase of 180,000 barrels per day (bpd).

• NZD/USD softens to around 0.5970 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• The dovish stance of the RBNZ weighs on the Kiwi, but the additional China stimulus plans might cap its downside. 
• Investors will monitor the advanced US Q3 GDP, which will be published on Wednesday. 

The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive near 0.5970 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to weigh on the pair. Investors will take more cues from the advanced US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter and the US ADP Employment Change for October on Wednesday. 

Goldman Sachs analysts expect a possible more aggressive rate cut from the RBNZ. Goldman forecasts 50 bps rate cuts in both November and February, with an elevated risk of a 75 bps cut in November. The dovish outlook of the New Zealand central bank is likely to undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the near term. 

China is considering issuing around 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next years to revive its sluggish economy, per Reuters. The positive development surrounding China’s fresh stimulus measures might support the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The expectation of less aggressive rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year lifts the Greenback. Traders have priced in a nearly 98.4% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in the November meeting. 

The US Department of Labor showed on Tuesday that the JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September fell to its lowest level in three and a half years, missing expectations.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence for October registered the highest in nine months as perceptions of the labor market improved. Investors will shift their attention to the US Q3 GDP data on Wednesday ahead of the highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

• The Japanese Yen trades with a mild positive bias on Wednesday, albeit it lacks bullish conviction.
• The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty, along with the upbeat market mood, caps the upside for the JPY.
• Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the BoJ decision and important US macro data this week.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday amid fears that authorities will intervene in the market to prop up the domestic currency. The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid expectations that the loss of the parliamentary majority by Japan's ruling coalition could make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten its monetary policy further. Furthermore, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor that is acting as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ decision on Thursday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront important US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP print later today, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen bulls remain on the sidelines amid diminishing odds for further BoJ policy tightening

• Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that a weak yen can push up prices through higher import costs and if wages are not rising as much, this would push down real household income and depress private consumption.
• Earlier Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated that the authorities will closely monitor FX moves, including those driven by speculators, with a higher sense of vigilance, fueling speculations about a potential government intervention.
• The political turmoil in Japan adds to a layer of uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's rate-hike plans, which, in turn, should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the Japanese Yen on the back of the prevalent risk-on environment. 
• The US Dollar remains on the defensive below its highest level since July 30 set on Tuesday and drags the USD/JPY pair away from a three-month top, though the downside seems limited ahead of this week's key central bank event/data risks. 
• The BoJ is scheduled to announce its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Thursday. Investors this week will also confront important US macro releases, which might provide fresh cues about the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. 
• Investors are pencilling in a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed as a series of upbeat economic data released recently pointed to the underlying strength of the US economy, which has been pushing the US Treasury bond yields higher. 
• The Conference Board reported on Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence Index registered its largest single-month gain since March 2021 and rose to 108.7 in October – a nine-month high – from an upwardly revised 99.2 in the prior month.
• This reflected optimism in business conditions, the job market and incomes, offsetting a rather disappointing Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, which showed that vacancies fell to more than a 3-1/2-year low in September.
• Adding to his, concerns that the spending plans of Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee Donald Trump will further increase the budget deficit, which further contributed to the recent upsurge in the US bond yields. 
• Traders now look to Wednesday's US economic docket, featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and the Advance GDP report, which is expected to show that the economy expanded by a 3% annualized pace in Q3.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY continues with its struggle to find acceptance above the 61.8% Fibo. level and remains below 154.00

From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 150.65 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September downfall – was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. That said, this week's repeated failures to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains close to the overbought zone, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for further gains. 

Any subsequent slide below the 153.00 mark, however, is likely to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the 152.75 region, ahead of the 152.40 area, or the weekly through. Some follow-through selling could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 152.00 mark en route to the 151.45 support and the 151.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the 150.65 confluence resistance breakpoint, which should now act as a key pivotal point and a strong base for spot prices.

On the flip side, the 153.85-153.90 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained strength beyond, leading to a breakout through the 154.00 mark, could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 154.35-154.40 supply zone, towards reclaiming the 155.00 psychological mark. Spot prices could eventually climb to test the late-July swing high, around the 155.20 region.

• The Australian Dollar remains elevated after a release of lower-than-expected CPI data on Wednesday.
• The monthly Australian CPI rose by 2.1% YoY in September, coming in below the expected 2.3% and previous 2.7% readings.
• The US Dollar may appreciate due to market caution persisting amid uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and US data.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) despite lower-than-expected Australia's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday. The upside of the AUD could be attributed to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) regarding its policy outlook.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, down from 1.0% in the previous quarter and slightly below the anticipated 0.3%. The monthly CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year in September, coming in below market expectations of 2.3% and down from August's reading of 2.7%.

The US Dollar saw a slight downward correction as US Treasury yields edged lower. However, the USD’s downside may be limited, with market caution persisting due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election and anticipation of key US economic data releases.

Traders will likely watch the upcoming release of preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and October’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as these could offer important insights into the timing and pace of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) expected rate cuts.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar inches higher due to hawkish RBA

• The positive US economic data from last week indicates continued resilience in the economy. This supports the sentiment of nominal interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 98.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with no expectation of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut.
• Australia’s CPI fell to 2.8% year-over-year from the prior 3.8%, marking the lowest level since Q1 2021 and coming in below market forecasts of 2.9%.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that JOLTS Job Openings reached 7.443 million in September, down from 7.861 million in August and falling short of the market expectation of 7.99 million.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled that the current cash rate of 4.35% is sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation back to the target range of 2%-3% while continuing to support employment. As a result, a rate cut in November appears unlikely.
• ANZ-Roy Morgan Australia Consumer Confidence dropped to 86.4 this week, down from 87.5 the previous week.
• Last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stated in a post on the social media platform X that the economy is clearly in a better position, with inflation having fallen significantly and the labor market returning to a more sustainable path.
• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted the country's strong labor participation rate last week and stressed that although the RBA relies on data, it is not overly fixated on it.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains above 0.6550 within the descending channel

AUD/USD trades near 0.6560 on Wednesday, with daily chart analysis indicating a short-term bearish bias as the pair remains within a descending channel. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 30, signaling an oversold condition that may lead to an upward correction.

On the support side, the AUD/USD pair could test the descending channel's lower boundary around 0.6520, followed by the psychological level of 0.6500.

For resistance, the first hurdle lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel near 0.6590, with a psychological level of 0.6600 above that. A breakout above the latter could pave the way for the AUD/USD pair to reach the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6619.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1390, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1283 and 7.1398 Reuters estimates.

• GBP/USD edges lower to near 1.3010 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
• Job openings fell more than expected in September. 
• Traders brace for the UK’s Autumn Budget, advanced US Q3 GDP data, which will be released on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD pair weakens around 1.3010 despite the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Investors await the release of the UK’s Autumn Budget, the US October ADP Employment Change for October and the advanced US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which are due later on Wednesday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday that Job openings came in at 7.443 million, followed the 7.861 million (revised from 8.04 million) seen in August, and came in below the market expectation of 7.99 million. This report might prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets and weigh the Greenback against the Pound Sterling (GBP). 

The Fed is likely to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on November 7, according to all 111 economists in a Reuters poll, with over a 90% majority expecting another quarter-percentage-point move in the December meeting.

On the UK’s front, the government is set to deliver Labour’s first Budget in almost 15 years on Wednesday. Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, might be preparing to unveil £40 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts overall. Employer National Insurance contributions, capital gains tax, and inheritance tax allowances are all possible targets.

Commerzbank analysts noted that if the budget combines austerity with hope of tackling long-term investment, “This should be positive for the pound as it would strengthen the U.K.’s long-term growth potential.”