Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 | New Zealand | ANZ Business Confidence | October | -53.5 | -54.1 |
00:01 | United Kingdom | Gfk Consumer Confidence | October | -12 | -13 |
00:30 | Australia | Export Price Index, q/q | Quarter III | 3.8% | -0.5% |
00:30 | Australia | Import Price Index, q/q | Quarter III | 0.9% | 0.1% |
00:30 | Australia | Private Sector Credit, m/m | September | 0.2% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Private Sector Credit, y/y | September | 2.9% | |
00:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | September | -1.1% | 0.5% |
01:00 | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.7 | 53.9 |
01:00 | China | Manufacturing PMI | October | 49.8 | 49.8 |
03:00 | Japan | BOJ Outlook Report | |||
03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
05:00 | Japan | Construction Orders, y/y | September | -25.9% | |
05:00 | Japan | Housing Starts, y/y | September | -7.1% | -6.7% |
05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | October | 35.6 | 35.5 |
07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | September | 3.2% | 3.5% |
07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | September | 0.5% | 0.2% |
07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | October | 0.9% | |
07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | October | -0.3% | |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | October | 1% | 1% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | October | 0.8% | 0.7% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | September | 7.4% | 7.4% |
10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter III | 1.2% | 1.1% |
10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.1% |
12:30 | Canada | Industrial Product Price Index, m/m | September | 0.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | Industrial Product Price Index, y/y | September | -1% | |
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1682 | 1680 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Employment Cost Index | Quarter III | 0.6% | 0.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Personal spending | September | 0.1% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | GDP (m/m) | August | 0% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m | September | 0.1% | 0.1% |
12:30 | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y | September | 1.8% | 1.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Personal Income, m/m | September | 0.4% | 0.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 212 | 215 | |
13:45 | U.S. | Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index | October | 47.1 | 48 |
15:30 | Switzerland | SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks | |||
21:30 | Australia | AIG Manufacturing Index | October | 54.7 | |
23:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | September | 2.2% | 2.3% |
Major US stock indices rose moderately, as investors assessed mixed quarterly results of US companies and analyzed the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS).
The focus of market participants was also preliminary data on US GDP, which showed that the US economy grew in the third quarter more than expected, but slowed down slightly from the second quarter, as business investment declined. According to a report by the Department of Commerce, US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the third quarter, falling slightly from 2% in the second quarter. Economists had expected the economy to grow by 1.6%.
In addition, a report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics showed that the number of people employed in the United States in October grew faster than expected, but steady growth was offset by a sharp downward revision over the previous month. According to the report, in October, companies hired 125,000 employees. This is evidenced by data published on Wednesday. Economists had expected an increase in the number of employed per 100,000 people.
As for the Fed meeting, the Central Bank lowered the interest rate for the third time this year, refuting expectations for a further reduction in the short term. The Fed gave a signal that the threshold for lowering the rate in the future is likely to be higher after the last decrease, as a result of which a range of 1.5% -1.75% was established. Bank executives abandoned the rhetoric that was used in June, July and September, according to which the FOMC "will act in an appropriate manner" to support economic growth. They replaced the phrase with a milder alternative. "The committee will continue to monitor the impact of the incoming information on economic prospects, determining the appropriate path" for the target rate, the Central Bank said.
Most DOW components completed trading in positive territory (21 out of 30). The biggest gainers were Johnson & Johnson (JNJ; + 2.86%). Outsiders were Chevron Corporation shares (CVX; -1.48%).
Almost all S&P sectors recorded an increase. The utilities sector grew the most (+ 0.8%). Only the raw materials sector showed a decrease (-1.0%).
At the time of closing:
Index
Dow 27,186.69 +115.27 + 0.43%
S&P 500 3,046.77 +9.88 + 0.33%
Nasdaq 100 8,303.98 +27.12 + 0.33%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 | New Zealand | ANZ Business Confidence | October | -53.5 | -54.1 |
00:01 | United Kingdom | Gfk Consumer Confidence | October | -12 | -13 |
00:30 | Australia | Export Price Index, q/q | Quarter III | 3.8% | -0.5% |
00:30 | Australia | Import Price Index, q/q | Quarter III | 0.9% | 0.1% |
00:30 | Australia | Private Sector Credit, m/m | September | 0.2% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Private Sector Credit, y/y | September | 2.9% | |
00:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | September | -1.1% | 0.5% |
01:00 | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | October | 53.7 | 53.9 |
01:00 | China | Manufacturing PMI | October | 49.8 | 49.8 |
03:00 | Japan | BOJ Outlook Report | |||
03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
05:00 | Japan | Construction Orders, y/y | September | -25.9% | |
05:00 | Japan | Housing Starts, y/y | September | -7.1% | -6.7% |
05:00 | Japan | Consumer Confidence | October | 35.6 | 35.5 |
07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | September | 3.2% | 3.5% |
07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | September | 0.5% | 0.2% |
07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | October | 0.9% | |
07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | October | -0.3% | |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | October | 1% | 1% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | October | 0.8% | 0.7% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | September | 7.4% | 7.4% |
10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter III | 1.2% | 1.1% |
10:00 | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.1% |
12:30 | Canada | Industrial Product Price Index, m/m | September | 0.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | Industrial Product Price Index, y/y | September | -1% | |
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1682 | 1680 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Employment Cost Index | Quarter III | 0.6% | 0.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Personal spending | September | 0.1% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | GDP (m/m) | August | 0% | 0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m | September | 0.1% | 0.1% |
12:30 | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y | September | 1.8% | 1.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Personal Income, m/m | September | 0.4% | 0.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | 212 | 215 | |
13:45 | U.S. | Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index | October | 47.1 | 48 |
15:30 | Switzerland | SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks | |||
21:30 | Australia | AIG Manufacturing Index | October | 54.7 | |
23:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | September | 2.2% | 2.3% |
Nordea Markets' analysts note that the US GDP for Q3 came in at 1.9 % q/q annualized, slightly lower than in Q2.
The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories increased
by 5.702 million barrels in the week ended October 25. Economists had forecast
a gain of 0.500 million barrels.
At the same
time, gasoline stocks declined by 3.037 million barrels, while analysts had
expected a drop of 2.300 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 1.032
million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.400 million
barrels.
Meanwhile, oil
production in the U.S. was unchanged at 12.600 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil
imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 840,000 barrels
per day from the previous week.
The Bank of
Canada (BoC) left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.75 percent on
Wednesday, as widely expected.
In its policy
statement, the Canadian central bank said that Governing Council judged it
appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. According
to the BoC, the Governing Council is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s
economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist
and it will pay close attention to the sources of this resilience (notably
consumer spending and housing activity), as well as to fiscal policy
developments.
It also added
that Canada’s economy is expected to slow in the second half of this year to a
rate below its potential due to the uncertainty associated with trade
conflicts, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of
temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter. The BoC projects
the real GDP to grow by 1.5 percent this year (up from its previous estimate of
+1.3 percent), 1.7 percent in 2020 (down from +1.9 percent previously) and 1.8
percent in 2021 (down from +2.0 percent previously). Meanwhile, business
investment and exports are seen to contract before expanding again in 2020 and
2021. In regard to price pressure, the Canadian central bank expects the CPI
inflation likely to dip temporarily in 2020 as the effect of a previous spike
in energy prices fades.
Germany's
Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday the country’s consumer price
index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.1 m-o-m in October after being unchanged
m-o-m in the previous month.
On the y-o-y
basis, Germany’s inflation rate is seen to rise 1.1 percent this month,
following a 1.2 percent gain in September. That would be the lowest reading
since February 2018.
Economists had
predicted inflation would be flat m-o-m and would increase 1.1 percent y-o-y in
October.
According to
the report, food price growth decelerated to 1.1 percent y-o-y in October from 1.3
percent y-o-y in September, while energy prices fell 2.1 percent y-o-y,
following a drop of 1.1 percent y-o-y in the previous month. Services costs
rose 1.7 percent y-o-y in October after a 1.8 percent y-o-y climb in September.
Meanwhile, the
harmonized index of consumer prices for Germany (HICP), which is calculated for
European purposes, is expected to increase 0.1 percent m-o-m and 0.9 percent
y-o-y.
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting China's official manufacturing PMI to edge higher to 49.9 in October from 49.8 previously.
Morten Lund, an analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the UK is set for its third general election in four years, as PM Boris Johnson yesterday finally won the backing of the House of Commons to hold a snap election.
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 46.19 | -0.19(-0.41%) | 2860 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,764.84 | 2.13(0.12%) | 4806 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 245.2 | 1.91(0.79%) | 201503 |
AT&T Inc | T | 38.25 | 0.19(0.50%) | 109300 |
Boeing Co | BA | 348 | -0.93(-0.27%) | 9863 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 141 | -0.33(-0.23%) | 2789 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 47.34 | 0.10(0.21%) | 2598 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 73.05 | -0.04(-0.05%) | 3500 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 68.65 | 0.21(0.31%) | 11577 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 190.98 | 1.67(0.88%) | 104005 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.67 | 0.03(0.35%) | 34709 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 10.2 | -0.03(-0.29%) | 7640 |
General Electric Co | GE | 9.83 | 0.76(8.38%) | 12539439 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 38.07 | -0.14(-0.37%) | 2874 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 218 | 0.36(0.17%) | 763 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,260.50 | -2.12(-0.17%) | 2767 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 173.05 | -0.11(-0.06%) | 104 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 56.42 | 0.08(0.14%) | 5826 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 134.4 | 0.58(0.43%) | 1562 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 133 | 3.88(3.00%) | 65697 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 126.5 | 0.07(0.06%) | 6146 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 193 | 0.38(0.20%) | 5569 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 143.1 | 0.27(0.19%) | 25848 |
Nike | NKE | 89.59 | 0.31(0.35%) | 7494 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 38.33 | 0.12(0.31%) | 15167 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 123.94 | 0.34(0.28%) | 759 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 84.61 | 0.48(0.57%) | 10351 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 313.65 | -2.57(-0.81%) | 79983 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 53.51 | 0.10(0.19%) | 5837 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 30.11 | 0.26(0.87%) | 117903 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 60.28 | 0.09(0.15%) | 1055 |
Visa | V | 178.34 | 0.71(0.40%) | 1763 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 117.49 | 0.34(0.29%) | 116 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 129.7 | 0.22(0.17%) | 11773 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 33.81 | 0.15(0.45%) | 3800 |
The Commerce
Department released on Wednesday its "advance" estimate for the U.S.
gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2019, which revealed the
U.S. economy grew more than expected in the reviewed period.
According to
the estimate, the U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent
q-o-q last quarter, after rising by 2.0 percent q-o-q in the second quarter of
2019.
Economists had
expected GDP to grow by 1.6 percent.
According to
the report, the gain in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive
contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government
spending, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending,
and exports, which, however, were partly offset by negative contributions from
nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, rose.
At the same
time, the deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected slowdowns
in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending,
and a larger decline in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements,
however, were partly offset by a smaller drop in private inventory investment,
and upturns in exports and in residential fixed investment.
The employment
report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics
showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 125,000 jobs in October.
Economists had
expected a gain of 120,000.
The increase
for September was revised sharply down to 93,000 from the originally reported
135,000.
" While job growth continues to soften,
there are certain segments of the labor market that remain strong,” noted Ahu
Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The goods
producing sector showed weakness; however, the healthcare industry and midsized
companies had solid gains.”
Meanwhile, Mark
Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth has throttled
way back over the past year. The job slowdown is most pronounced at
manufacturers and small companies. If hiring weakens any further, unemployment
will begin to rise.”
FX Strategists at UOB Group see the NZD/USD to extend the sideline theme in the next weeks.
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. GDP growth to have maintained second-quarter pace, printing 2.0% QoQ saar for Q3 (market: 1.6%).
General Electric (GE) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $0.15 per share (versus $0.14 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.12.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $23.360 bln (-0.1% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.932 bln.
The company also reaffirmed its FY 2019 EPS guidance at $0.55-0.65 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.60.
GE rose to $9.50 (+4.74%) in pre-market trading.
Analysts at TD Securities point out the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 1.75% in October, putting the focus on the policy statement and updated economic projections.
Advanced Micro (AMD) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $0.18 per share (versus $0.13 in Q3 FY 2018), matching analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.18.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $1.801 bln (+9.0% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.807 bln.
The company also issued in-line guidance for Q4 FY 2019, projecting revenue of $2.05-2.15 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.15 bln.
AMD fell to $32.88 (-0.45%) in pre-market trading.
The Mortgage
Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume
in the U.S. rose 0.6 percent in the week ended October 25, following an 11.9
percent plunge in the previous week.
According to
the report, applications to purchase a home climbed 2.3 percent, while refinance
applications declined 0.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the
average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 4.05 percent from 4.02 percent.
“The 10-year
Treasury rate rose slightly last week, as markets expected more progress toward
a trade deal between the U.S. and China,” noted Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate
vice president of economic and industry forecasting.
Deutsche Bank analysts point out that the FOMC will get one final important data release prior to the meeting with a first look at US Q3 GDP at 12.30pm GMT.
“The consensus is for growth to slow to 1.6% annualised while our economists forecast 1.5%. Remember that this compares to 2.0% growth in Q2. Our economists make the point that the Fed’s median 2019 growth estimate in the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) increased a tenth to 2.2%, which implied back half growth of roughly 1.9% annualised. The details of the Q3 GDP report may therefore prompt Fed officials to begin marking down their forecasts ahead of the next SEP release at the December meeting. At a minimum, the Q3 output data should serve as a benchmark for gauging the data going into the December meeting.”
Westpac analysts suggest that there is still a pressing need for the FOMC to take out further insurance against downside risks.
“Evident in recent data is further weakness in investment as well as a significant deterioration in business conditions – as assessed by the ISMs. Of greater concern still, growth in employment and hourly earnings have both throttled back. If sustained, these trends will put consumer sentiment and spending at risk. We therefore expect the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate at the October meeting and to remain open to taking further action in coming months. A December cut and those we see in March and June will require a further slowing of growth.”
According to the report from European Commission, in October 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased in both the euro area (by 0.9 points to 100.8) and the EU (by 0.9 points to 99.0). Economists had expected a decrease to 101.1 in the euro area.
The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, retail trade and among consumers, while confidence improved markedly in construction. The slight decrease in industry confidence (−0.6) resulted from managers' more pessimistic production expectations, while their views on the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products remained virtually unchanged. The moderate decline in services confidence (−0.5) was driven by managers' more pessimistic views on the past business situation and demand expectations, while their assessment of past demand remained virtually stable. The decrease in consumer confidence (−1.1) reflected the strong deterioration in households’ expectations about the general economic situation and their future financial situation, while their assessments of their past financial situation and their intentions to make major purchases edged down. The drop in retail trade confidence (−0.9) resulted from more negative views on both the present and expected business situation and, in particular, the adequacy of the volume of stocks. The marked increase in construction confidence (+1.3) was fuelled by managers' more optimistic employment expectations and, to a lesser extent, their assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell (−7.5), reflecting strong deterioration in managers' demand expectations and their assessments of the past business situation and past demand.
Danske Bank analysts suggest that today we have a busy schedule ahead of us with the FOMC meeting tonight (at 18:00 GMT) being today's highlight, where Danske Bank analysis team is expecting another 25bp cut.
“Also today, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3 is due out , which we expect to come out at 1.8% q/q AR. US growth has peaked, as investments are struggling in the current environment and private consumption is not growing as fast as previously. In euro markets, focus turns to ECB's tiering system taking effect today . So far, markets are showing little to no signs of a tiering premium. Tomorrow's STR fixing will shed more light on this. Also, ECB could start buying bonds as part of its resumption of the APP of EUR20bn/ month, with settlement for Friday. Overnight, Bank of Japan will hold its policy rate meeting. We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep the policy rate and yield curve control unchanged, however, we see them making great efforts to highlight its willingness to act if needed. Markets price around 40% probability of a cut. Chinese official PMI are due over night (Caixin during night to Friday). We expect the official PMI manufacturing to land at a flat reading at 49.8.”
German unemployment rose more than expected in October, data from the Federal Labour Office showed, suggesting that a manufacturing crisis in Europe’s largest economy is spilling over to the labor market.
Number of people out of work increased by 6,000 to 2.287 million in seasonally adjusted terms. That compared with forecast for a rise of 2,000. This increase is due solely to the development in the area of unemployment insurance due to the economic downturn. The number of unemployed remained unchanged compared with the previous year. The jobless rate held steady at 5.0% - slightly above the record-low of 4.9% reached earlier this year.
Underemployment, which also includes changes in labour market policy and short-term incapacity for work, has declined by 4,000 seasonally adjusted compared with the previous month. Overall, the underemployment in October 2019 was 3,129,000 persons. That was 13,000 less than a year ago.
“The recent economic weakness is leaving its marks on the job market. But all in all, it still proves to be robust,” said Labour Office head Detlef Scheele.
Global growth is slowing and has modestly impacted the United States, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, adding the U.S. economy remained strong with good capital inflows.
"There is no question that the global economy is slowing down and that has had some modest drag on the U.S. economy," he said at an investment conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
Mnuchin also said Europe needed to do more on the fiscal and regulatory side to maintain growth.
Danske Bank analysts suggest that the forthcoming UK elections are an EU referendum in disguise.
“PM Johnson will campaign on his 'Get Brexit Done' platform arguing the public should give him the mandate to implement his Brexit deal. LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens are likely to campaign for a second EU referendum (with 'remain' as an option on the ballot). It is more difficult to say what platform Labour is campaigning, as Labour in reality has not clarified its position on Brexit. However, we would expect Labour to back a second EU referendum eventually. This means we may soon get to the Brexit end game, unless we get a (very?) hung parliament without a clear/stable majority, like we did in 2017. If this is the case, the period of high uncertainty and confusion will continue and the UK may need another extension beyond 31 January. Overall, the tail risk of a no deal Brexit has declined substantially and investors have priced out a lot of negativity in GBP. The election does not change this. Unfortunately, it is difficult to translate polls into mandates due to the 'winner takes all' election system. The election results in 2015 and 2017 caught most by surprise.”
Citi discusses its expectations around this week's BoJ policy meeting.
"Potentially retaining a bid in JPY is the likelihood of the BoJ standing pat at its meeting this week. The Nikkei reports Sunday that the BoJ looks likely to refrain from additional easing following similar reports from the Asahi Shimbun on Saturday and Bloomberg last Thursday (note that JPY short rates are pricing a decent probability of a further 10bp cut to the BoJ’s deposit rate by Q1’2020)," Citi notes.
"Citi analysts also expect no change in BoJ policy which could be marginally supportive for JPY sentiment," Citi adds.
KOF Economic Research Agency said, economic barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-average rates in the upcoming months.
In October, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 1.6 points, from 93.1 points in September (revised from 93.2 points) to 94.7 points. Economists had expected an increase to 93.9.
This increase is attributable in particular to bundles of indicators from the banking and insurance sector as well as from accommodation and food service activities. Furthermore, indicators regarding foreign demand and other services are pointing in a slightly less negative direction than in the previous month. On the other hand, indicators from the manufacturing sector record a slight decline. In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing and construction), the indicators on the number of employees and on barriers to production burden the development. Export prospects are also subdued in the coming months. However, production is expected to develop somewhat more positively, albeit still below average.
According to the report from Insee, in September 2019, household consumption expenditure on goods decreased by 0.4% in volume. Economists had expected a 0.1% increase. This decrease was explained by the downturn in manufactured good spending (–1.3%). Food purchases bounced back (+0.5%) whereas energy consumption was virtually stable (–0.1%). Over the whole quarter, household expenditure on goods bounced back compared to the previous quarter (+0.4% after –0.1%).
In September, manufactured good consumption decreased (–1.3%) after rising for four consecutive months. Durable good purchases decreased (–2.2%) as well as textile-clothing spending (–1.2%). Other manufactured good consumption went up slightly (+0.2%). Over the quarter, manufactured good spending recovered (+1.6% after –0.4%).
In September, durable good expenditure fell sharply (–2.2% after +1.8%), due to a drop in car sales, in particular new ones. Housing equipment sales also decreased (–0.6%), in particular furniture purchases. Over the quarter, durable good purchases bounced back sharply (+2.8% after –0.8%).
Expenditure on textile-clothing decreased in September (–1.2% after +2.1%). In particular, footwear sales fell sharply, after a large increase in August. Over the quarter, textile and clothing consumption went down slightly (–0.1% after +0.4%).
DIHK President Eric Schweitzer said German exports are expected to shrink next year, marking the first fall since the global financial crisis.
"For our economy, with its strong industrial core, this is a huge challenge. Expects Germany's annual export growth to slow to 0.3% this year from 2.1% in 2018", Schweitzer said, adding that exports are likely to shrink by 0.5% next year.
"Since the financial crisis of 2008/2009, the DIHK has not received such pessimistic replies from the companies. Due to the bleak trade outlook, the DIHK cut its 2019 gross domestic product growth forecast for the German economy to 0.4% from 0.6% previously. DIHK forecasts GDP growth of 0.5% for 2020, was mainly due to an unusual high number of working days next year", Schweitzer said.
The UK economy would be 3.5% smaller with the new Brexit deal compared to continued EU membership, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said.
In the near term, loosened fiscal policy as well as expected cut in interest rate next year would underpin economic growth.
The think tank said the economic outlook is clouded by significant economic and political uncertainty and depends critically on the nation's trading relationships after Brexit.
The economy is forecast to expand 1.4% each this year and next based on the assumption that the terms of EU trade remain unchanged.
The institute said risks to growth continue to be weighted to the downside, although not as severe as in the previous forecast given the reduced likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.
According to the report from Insee, in Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase.
Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.
Imports bounced back strongly (+1.4% after –0.3%) and exports grew this quarter (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 points, after 0.0 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.1 points after –0.2 points).
Production of goods and services decelerated slightly compared to the previous quarter (+0.3% after +0.4%). Output in goods stepped back again (–0.4% after –0.2%), while it grew at almost the same pace as the previous quarter in services (+0.5% after 0.6%).
Output in manufactured goods kept decreasing (–0.4% after –0.5%). Output decreased in all manufacturing sectors except for transport equipment.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1184 (2985)
$1.1163 (3620)
$1.1148 (2236)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1111
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1082 (2758)
$1.1043 (2483)
$1.0997 (4056)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 73103 contracts (according to data from October, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4056);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3039 (2287)
$1.2970 (1369)
$1.2924 (1933)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2867
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2809 (203)
$1.2786 (238)
$1.2755 (185)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 8 is 30702 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3877);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 29352 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (3167);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 29
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 61.09 | -0.13 |
WTI | 55.45 | -0.48 |
Silver | 17.78 | -0.22 |
Gold | 1487.766 | -0.31 |
Palladium | 1775.72 | -1.36 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | 106.86 | 22974.13 | 0.47 |
Hang Seng | -104.5 | 26786.76 | -0.39 |
KOSPI | -0.91 | 2092.69 | -0.04 |
ASX 200 | 4.7 | 6745.4 | 0.07 |
FTSE 100 | -25.02 | 7306.26 | -0.34 |
DAX | -2.09 | 12939.62 | -0.02 |
Dow Jones | -19.26 | 27071.46 | -0.07 |
S&P 500 | -2.53 | 3036.89 | -0.08 |
NASDAQ Composite | -49.14 | 8276.85 | -0.59 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.6861 | 0.35 |
EURJPY | 120.989 | 0.04 |
EURUSD | 1.11112 | 0.11 |
GBPJPY | 140.043 | -0.06 |
GBPUSD | 1.28624 | 0.05 |
NZDUSD | 0.63548 | 0.12 |
USDCAD | 1.30858 | 0.24 |
USDCHF | 0.99384 | -0.09 |
USDJPY | 108.88 | -0.08 |
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