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30.06.2020
22:31
Australia: AIG Manufacturing Index, June 51.5
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, July 1, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI June 38.4 37.8
01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI June 50.7 50.5
05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence June 24.0  
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y June 1.8% 1%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index June -1.7% -0.7%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y May -6.5% -3.5%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted May -5.3% 3.9%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI June 42.1 48.3
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI June 40.6 52.1
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI June 36.6 44.6
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change June 238 120
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. June 6.3% 6.6%
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI June 39.4 46.9
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing June 40.7 50.1
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report June -2760  
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI June 39.8 49.6
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m May -2.9% 1%
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing June 43.1 49.4
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June 1.442 -0.95
18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes    
19:00
DJIA +0.14% 25,631.67 +35.87 Nasdaq +1.46% 10,018.29 +144.13 S&P +0.99% 3,083.61 +30.37
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,169.74 -56.03 -0.90% DAX 12,310.93 +78.81 +0.64% CAC 40 4,935.99 -9.47 -0.19%
15:10
ECB's Executive Board member Schnabel: We will reduce PEPP purchases, when situation in markets calms down

  • Some short-term economic indicators are now starting to look better but they [ECB] are expecting the recovery to be slow
  • We could stop bond purchases even before the envelope exhausted if situation improves enough but could also expand if situation worsens

14:38
OPEC and Russia will like ease output cuts in August - Reuters reports, citing four sources
14:33
BoE's Deputy Governor Cunliffe: Impact of negative rates on financial structures is a particularly acute issue

  • We should not draw dogmatic lines on negative rates
  • We are likely to see a number of credit events and defaults

14:16
U.S.: Consumer confidence , June 98.1 (forecast 91.8)
14:13
U.S. consumer confidence jumps more than expected in June

The Conference Board announced on Tuesday its U.S. consumer confidence surged 12.2 points to 98.1 in June from 85.9 in May.

Economists had expected consumer confidence to come in at 91.8.

May’s consumer confidence reading was revised down from originally estimated 86.6.

The survey showed that the expectations index increased from 97.6 last month to 106.0 this month. Meanwhile, the present situation index rose from 68.4 in May to 86.2.

“Consumer Confidence partially rebounded in June but remains well below pre-pandemic levels,” noted Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The re-opening of the economy and relative improvement in unemployment claims helped improve consumers’ assessment of current conditions, but the Present Situation Index suggests that economic conditions remain weak. Looking ahead, consumers are less pessimistic about the short-term outlook, but do not foresee a significant pickup in economic activity. Faced with an uncertain and uneven path to recovery, and a potential COVID-19 resurgence, it’s too soon to say that consumers have turned the corner and are ready to begin spending at pre-pandemic levels.”

14:01
Chicago business activity improves less than forecast in June

MNI Indicators’ report revealed on Tuesday that business activity in Chicago picked up this month, as Covid-19 related shutdowns eased somewhat.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 36.6 in June, up from a 38-year low of 32.3 in May. Economists had forecast the index to increase to 45.0.

Over Q2, however, business sentiment fell 11.8 points to 34.8, hitting the lowest level since Q1 2009.

A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation.

According to the report, New Orders and Production recorded their largest monthly gains in June, while Supplier Deliveries and Employment faltered.

13:46
U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , June 36.6 (forecast 45)
13:44
U.S. home price growth accelerates in line with estimates in April - S&P Dow Jones Indices

S&P reported on Tuesday its Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, surged 4.0 percent y-o-y in April, following an unrevised 3.9 percent y-o-y increase in March.

Economists had expected an advance of 4.0 percent y-o-y.

Phoenix (+8.8 percent y-o-y), Seattle (+7.3 percent y-o-y) and Minneapolis (+6.4 percent y-o-y) recorded the highest y-o-y advances in April. Overall, 12 of the 19 cities reported greater price gains in the year ending April versus the year ending March.

Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, climbed 4.7 percent y-o-y in April, up from 4.6 percent y-o-y in the previous month.

"April’s housing price data continue to be remarkably stable," noted Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “April’s year-over-year gains were ahead of March’s, continuing a trend of gently accelerating home prices that began last fall. Results in April continued to be broad-based. Prices rose in each of the 19 cities for which we have reported data, and price increases accelerated in 12 cities”, he added.

13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.23%, Nasdaq +0.11%, S&P +0.02%
13:27
Before the bell: S&P futures -0.33%, NASDAQ futures -0.29%

U.S. stock-index futures fell moderately on Tuesday as investors continued to worry that the recent surge in global coronavirus infections could put at risk a near-term recovery. 


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,288.14

+293.10

+1.33%

Hang Seng

24,427.19

+125.91

+0.52%

Shanghai

2,984.67

+23.16

+0.78%

S&P/ASX

5,897.90

+82.90

+1.43%

FTSE

6,169.09

-56.68

-0.91%

CAC

4,928.51

-16.95

-0.34%

DAX

12,236.80

+4.68

+0.04%

Crude oil

$39.04


-1.66%

Gold

$1,780.20


-0.06%

13:04
Gold: Longer-term target at top of 49-year channel at 1981.56 - Commerzbank

FXStreet notes that gold is trading near seven-year highs, currently at $1770, and Commerzbank’s Karen Jones is looking for the yellow metal to reach the top of the 49-year channel at 1981.56.

“Gold uptrend at 1735 has resumed its up move and has eroded its May high at 1765.61. This guards the 1791.16/1803.29 highs from February and October 2012 and November 2011. This area is considered to be the last defence for the 1921.50 September 2011 high. Please note there is room for an overshoot to the top of a 49-year channel at 1981 and this is our long-term target.”

“Immediate support is the three-month uptrend at 1735, but while above 1661.84 (the mid-April low), an immediate upside pressure should be maintained. Only failure here would allow for a slightly deeper retracement to 1645 and potentially 1608 (50% retracement).” 

“A longer-term positive bias will be preserved while gold trades above the 1451.45/1445.53 November and March lows.”

13:01
U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y, April 4% (forecast 4%)
13:00
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

154.83

-0.74(-0.48%)

589

ALCOA INC.

AA

10.89

-0.10(-0.91%)

7359

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

2,687.25

6.87(0.26%)

17301

American Express Co

AXP

94.67

0.15(0.16%)

4476

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

31.31

0.63(2.05%)

641

Apple Inc.

AAPL

360.05

-1.73(-0.48%)

227105

AT&T Inc

T

30.05

0.14(0.47%)

98164

Boeing Co

BA

189.23

-5.26(-2.70%)

969986

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

124.88

-0.37(-0.30%)

24099

Chevron Corp

CVX

87.01

-0.66(-0.75%)

11055

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

45.97

-0.18(-0.39%)

20412

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

50.28

-0.01(-0.02%)

52667

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

52.5

0.03(0.06%)

174

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

43.8

-0.52(-1.17%)

58173

Facebook, Inc.

FB

220.35

-0.29(-0.13%)

135514

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

135.49

0.94(0.70%)

13817

Ford Motor Co.

F

5.99

-0.02(-0.33%)

281533

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11.03

-0.01(-0.09%)

8044

General Electric Co

GE

6.79

-0.01(-0.15%)

511311

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

25.2

-0.10(-0.40%)

15801

Goldman Sachs

GS

193.63

0.16(0.08%)

6981

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,397.00

2.03(0.15%)

2854

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

17.1

-0.03(-0.18%)

742

Home Depot Inc

HD

246.25

0.13(0.05%)

4248

Intel Corp

INTC

58.75

0.48(0.82%)

37662

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

119.68

-0.07(-0.06%)

3727

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

139.46

0.42(0.30%)

4935

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

93.38

0.38(0.41%)

92010

McDonald's Corp

MCD

182.71

-0.09(-0.05%)

2030

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

76.6

0.48(0.63%)

11306

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

197.92

-0.52(-0.26%)

59644

Nike

NKE

95.6

-0.27(-0.28%)

6320

Pfizer Inc

PFE

32.64

-0.00(-0.00%)

34701

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

117.65

-0.01(-0.01%)

3785

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

73.18

-0.30(-0.41%)

11392

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

1,007.72

-1.63(-0.16%)

115841

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

44.38

0.02(0.05%)

17869

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

29.57

0.08(0.27%)

58749

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

54.95

0.26(0.48%)

29403

Visa

V

191

-0.38(-0.20%)

2401

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

119.21

0.15(0.13%)

13831

Walt Disney Co

DIS

111.27

-0.25(-0.22%)

21538

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

48.4

-0.84(-1.71%)

7006

12:58
Initiations before the market open

HP (HPQ) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen; target $18

12:52
Canada’s economy shrinks 11.6 percent in April

Statistics Canada announced on Tuesday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 11.6 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 7.5 percent m-o-m fall in March (originally a 7.2 percent m-o-m contraction). This was the largest monthly decline in GDP since the series started in 1961 but was better than economists’ forecast of a 13.0 percent m-o-m decrease.

According to the report, 25 of 26 all sectors recorded declines in April. Manufacturing tumbled 22.5 percent m-o-m in April as all subsectors contracted as many factories were either completely shut down or operated at a much lower capacity to slow down the spread of COVID-19. In addition, the construction sector fell 22.9 percent m-o-m in April, retail trade contracted 22.9 percent m-o-m, the transportation and warehousing sector dropped 23.1 percent m-o-m, the accommodation and food services sector plunged 42.4 percent m-o-m. and wholesale trade fell 17.9 percent m-o-m. Meanwhile, information and communication technologies industries recorded a 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in April.

12:31
European session review: GBP weakens, weighed down by grim GDP numbers, Brexit risks and coronavirus resurgence concerns

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, y/yQuarter I2.3%0.7%0.8%
06:00United KingdomCurrent account, bln Quarter I-9.2-15.4-21.1
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, q/qQuarter I-0.3%0%-0.3%
06:00United KingdomGDP, q/qQuarter I0.0%-2%-2.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yQuarter I1.1%-1.6%-1.7%
06:30SwitzerlandRetail Sales (MoM)May-14.7% 30.7
06:30SwitzerlandRetail Sales Y/YMay-18.8% 6.6%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mJune0.1% -0.1%
06:45FranceConsumer spending May-19.1%30%36.6%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yJune0.4% 0.1%
07:00SwitzerlandKOF Leading IndicatorJune49.67759.4
09:00EurozoneHarmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/YJune0.9%0.8%0.8%
09:00EurozoneHarmonized CPI, Y/YJune0.1%0.1%0.3%
10:00United KingdomMPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks    
11:00U.S.FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
12:30CanadaGDP (m/m) April-7.2%-13% 


GBP fell against most major currencies in the European session on Thursday, weighed down by poor GDP data, lingering fears that Britain will leave the EU without a trade deal, as well as growing concerns that the recent surge in global coronavirus infections could put at risk a near-term recovery. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the Uk's economy shrank by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020 instead of a 2.0 percent decrease estimated initially. That was the largest drop in UK GDP since the third quarter of 1979. Economists had forecast the reading to be unrevised. In y/y terms, GDP fell 1.7 percent in the first quarter, revised down from 1.6 percent estimated in May.

Meanwhile, the UK's PM Boris Johnson pledged to make the country the most attractive place to invest and set up a company. He said that finance minister Rishi Sunak would set out plans for "Phase One" of the economy next week. 

Coronavirus resurgence concerns and risks of a no-deal Brexit also continued to keep the pound under pressure.

12:31
Canada: GDP (m/m) , April -11.6% (forecast -13%)
11:47
S&P 500: Anticipating peaks and troughs is hard, better to react to the larger swings - Charles Schwab

FXStreet reports that differences in age cohorts’ attitudes toward the stock market may be at play, according to Liz Ann Sonders who advises reacting to a full market cycle condensed into a few months by rebalancing rather than trying to anticipate the market’s short-term peaks and valleys.

“Since June 8, which was the most recent peak, the S&P 500 initially suffered a -7.1% pullback through June 11, followed by a 4.3% rally through June 23, and another selloff since then of -3.9%. The most recent peak in the S&P 500 corresponded to the point at which COVID-19 cases shot up again—likely not coincidentally.”

“The peak in the S&P 500 also came within the same time frame as the recent peak in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (which has had two consecutive weeks of slight declines). Related, the peak in the S&P 500 also came just after the peak in the 13-week percentage change in M2 money supply. In essence, the ‘shock and awe’ stage of Fed policy announcements is, for now, in the rear-view mirror.”

“I think there is a relationship between the virus and investor sentiment in terms of age cohorts. Much of the speculation in the stock market over the past few months has been concentrated among younger/newer investors and traders.”

“We’ve been recommending that investors remain at their long-term strategic equity allocations; but ‘react’ to the larger swings by considering rebalancing more frequently. This allows portfolios to ‘stay in gear’ by trimming into strength and adding into weakness; vs. trying to time short-term peaks and troughs (which is always extremely difficult).” 

11:20
Canadian GDP Preview: Loonie sensitive to an upside surprise - TDS

FXStreet notes that a very weak report is well-anticipated at this point and economists at TD Securities expect the Canadian GDP to contract by 12% MoM versus the market consensus of a 12.2% contraction. USD/CAD might be more sensitive to an upside surprise.  

“Industry-level GDP will confirm another historic contraction in April with output expected to fall 12% MoM for an 18% drop from February, slightly worse than flash estimates from Statistics Canada. We expect a fairly even performance across goods and services and there are few industries where we see any scope for higher output.” 

“We think the CAD might demonstrate more sensitivity on an upside surprise. Overall however, we think USD/CAD has put in good work to form a base around 1.35. Meanwhile, the 1.3680/3730 air pocket will be a crucial pivot zone that will pave the way to further topside if it does not hold near-term. Our bias in the coming weeks leans that way.”

11:06
S&P 500: 3086 caps to maintain an immediate downside bias - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse apprise that the S&P 500 ideally holds below 3086 to keep the immediate risk lower within its broader consolidation/corrective phase for a move back below its 200-day average, currently at 3021.

“Our bias remains for 3086 to continue to ideally cap with support seen at 3032 initially, then the 200-day average at 3021. A close back below here should add further weight to our consolidation/corrective view with support seen next at 3000 ahead of 2987 and then more importantly at the June low at 2966.”

“Beneath the June low at 2966 remains needed to see a further price top complete to further reinforce the likelihood for further weakness with support seen next at the 63-day average at 2923. Our ‘ideal’ roadmap is for an eventual test of the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from March at 2835.” 

“Above 3086 can clear the way for further strength in what would look increasingly like a high-level consolidation range with resistance seen next at 3127/3, then more importantly at 3153/56.”

10:50
Company News: Micron Technology (MU) quarterly results beat analysts’ expectations

Micron Technology (MU) reported Q3 FY 2020 earnings of $0.82 per share (versus $1.05 per share in Q3 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.68 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.438 bln (+13.6% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.052 bln.

The company also issued upside guidance for Q4 FY 2020, projecting EPS of $0.95-1.15 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.80 and revenues of $5.75-6.25 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.51 bln.

MU rose to $51.75 (+5.30%) in pre-market trading.

10:43
USD/CHF: 0.9553 to cap a deeper correction to the upside - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that USD/CHF posted a bullish ‘key reversal day’ yesterday to suggest a deeper correction to the upside. The pair appreciates nearly 0.1% so far today to 0.9520, approaching the top of the last 12 days trading range at 0.9553 which ideally caps, per Credit Suisse.

“USD/CHF saw a sharp reversal higher on Monday, posting a bullish ‘key reversal day’ to suggest we might see further corrective upside in the near-term, which ideally is then capped by 0.9553.”

“Post the corrective phase, we look for weakness to resume, with support seen initially at 0.9508, then 0.9479, ahead of 0.9442/33 and 0.9425/20, where we expect to see a first attempt to hold. Removal of here would then expose the current June low at 0.9376, beneath which would see the recently completed ‘hammer’ candlestick negated and we would then expect to see another leg lower. Support is seen thereafter at the 78.6% retracement of the March 2020 surge at 0.9337/21, where we also could see fresh buyers at first.” 

“Above 0.9553 in contrast would see a minor base established to suggest a deeper correction higher, with next key resistance area seen at 0.9628/51.”

10:29
UK's PM Johnson: We must set out the way ahead
  • We cannot be prisoners of the coronavirus crisis
  • We were able to avert a far worse disaster
  • Still awaiting for the full economic reverberations to appear
  • Government is committed to "unite" and "level up" the UK
  • Says that will not use austerity to respond to the crisis
  • Finance minister Sunak will set out plans for "Phase One" of  economy next week 
  • This is a chance to be radical and be bold
  • We will have "infrastructure revolution" and build enough homes
  • We will make UK the most attractive place to invest and set up a company
  • We will shortly bring forward the most radical reform of our planning system since WW2
10:20
BoE’s chief economist Haldane: Like the rest of the MPC, I stand ready to adjust monetary policy, at speed, if needed

  • Risks to the economy remain considerable, two-sided
  • In my view, risks are slightly more evenly balanced than in May; they remain skewed to the downside
  • In my view, positive news on demand has more than counterbalanced the rise in downside risks to employment
  • Monetary policy can do relatively little to avoid problems caused by structural or sectoral shifts in the economy; With interest rates along yield curve close to zero, there is also simply less room for monetary manoeuvre than in the past
  • It is more important than ever that central banks are not over-burdened and that anchor of price stability is not disturbed

09:59
NZD/USD: Opportunities to re-enter long positions at around 0.60 – ANZ

FXStreet reports that some weakness will bring opportunities to reset long trades in the NZD/USD pair at 0.60 while economists ANZ Bank has updated kiwi’s forecast to 0.65 for the rest of the year.

“Despite having re-opened the domestic economy, beyond an initial bounce-back, the New Zealand economy remains vulnerable to a weak global demand and no international tourism. Although the hole in GDP is likely behind us, the full economic impact of the recession will become clear over the rest of 2020.” 

“The NZDs outperformance alongside other risk currencies has been tempered by a dovish central bank. We think this dovishness will linger, as the RBNZ eventually increases its large-scale asset purchases and toys with unconventional policy measures such as negative rates and the purchase of foreign bonds.” 

“Against the JPY and the USD we expect consolidation and tactical retracement to offer opportunity for entry given the improved global backdrop.”

“To reflect a more balanced outlook, we have lifted our NZD/USD forecast to 0.65 for the remainder of 2020, recognising the role of liquidity and fiscal support in limiting downside to the global story.”

09:45
Quick recovery of German economy "off the table" - DIHK

Reuters reports that a V-shaped recovery of the German economy from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely, with two thirds of companies expecting a return to normalcy in 2021 at the earliest, business association DIHK said on Tuesday.

"The V is off the table," DIHK said, adding that its survey of 8,500 companies confirms its forecast for a 10% slump in Germany's economy this year.

The association added that four out of five companies expect their sales to decline this year. "These numbers show the great uncertainty among our companies."

Germany is planning to implement stimulus measures worth more than 130 billion euros ($146 billion) overall to cushion the blow of the pandemic, including a temporary cut in value-added tax and funds to rescue small firms from bankruptcy.

DIHK said bridging aid and stimulus measures were important but cautioned: "Nothing is more important for companies than the chance to be able to generate sales again."

09:31
AUD/USD: RBA to flatten rate curve on appreciation above 0.70 – ANZ

FXStreet reports that some weakness will bring opportunities to reset long trades in the AUD/USD pair at 0.65 while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely act if the aussie surges above 0.70, according to economists at ANZ Bank.

“The transmission clusters across Victoria in particular have challenged the growing expectation of a pronounced bounce back in the domestic economy. Instead, if we apply consumer uncertainty to the many industries hit by the pandemic and shutdowns, the growth path for Australia is more mixed.” 

“For the RBA, currency appreciation above 0.70, out of line with fundamentals, will likely draw policy considerations that would see the domestic rates curve flatten.” 

“For July, we think there is scope for tactical downside for the AUD given the negative news flow and stretched risk appetite. With global central bank support unlikely to waver, we see this as a buy-the-dip opportunity, particularly against the JPY and USD crosses. We think there will be opportunities to re-enter long positions at around USD0.65.”

“With the AUD having led the recovery, there remains scope for catchup appreciation across the Asian FX complex, which would see Asia/AUD modestly supported. Our year-end targets have lifted and anchored near fair-value of 0.70, representing the more balanced environment that the AUD now sits within.”

09:15
Euro area annual inflation up to 0.3% in June

According to the report from Eurostat, in June 2020, a month in which many COVID-19 containment measures have been gradually lifted, Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May. Meanwhile, the core figures steadied at +0.8% in the reported month when compared to +0.8% expectations and +0.9% previous.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in June (3.1%, compared with 3.4% in May), followed by services (1.2%, compared with 1.3% in May), non-energy industrial goods (0.2%, stable compared with May) and energy (-9.4%, compared with -11.9% in May)

09:01
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, June 0.3% (forecast 0.1%)
09:01
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, June 0.8% (forecast 0.8%)
08:39
EUR/CHF to retest the 1.0915 June high after correction stops at the 1.0622 200-DMA – Commerzbank

FXStreet reports that EUR/CHF’s a-b-c correction has terminated ahead of the 55-day ma at 1.0622 and Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, now expects a retest of the 1.0915 June high.

“EUR/CHF has completed an a-b-c’ correction, which has halted ahead of the 55-day ma at 1.0622. This has held the downside and provoked recovery and we look for a retest of the 2018-2020 downtrend at 1.0873 this week and the 1.0915 June high. Initial resistance is the 200-day ma at 1.0750.” 

“A close above 1.0915 will target the 1.1058/75 October 2019 high and the 38.2% retracement down from the 2018 peak. Above here would target the 200-week ma at 1.1141.” 

“Below the 55-day would retarget the 1.0577 low and this guards the 1.0509/00 support (not favoured).”

08:23
One in four U.S. CEOs see full recovery delayed until after 2021

Bloomberg reports that confidence among U.S. chief executives plummeted to the lowest level since the financial crisis and more than a quarter don’t see conditions at their companies recovering until after 2021 as the coronavirus reverberates through the economy.

The Business Roundtable’s second-quarter economic outlook index, which measures hiring and capital spending plans as well as sales expectations, slumped by 38.4 points to 34.3 from the previous quarter, the Washington-based lobbying group said Monday. Readings below 50 are consistent with a recession, which the National Bureau of Economic Research said the economy entered in February.

Some 27% see business conditions fully recovering at their firms after next year, underscoring the toll of the pandemic and state lockdowns of businesses that have started to lift. The CEOs project the economy will shrink 3.8% this year after hiring and capital investment plans declined along with sales expectations.

In the survey of 136 CEOs conducted June 1-22, all executives said they have already adopted, or plan to adopt, physical distancing measures at their facilities, while 95% have expanded flexible work arrangements. In light of recent increases in Covid-19 cases in several states, the group urged officials to take more steps to mitigate the spread of the disease.

“We urge lawmakers at the federal, state and local levels to coordinate as much as possible to control further spread of this virus,” Walmart Inc. CEO Doug McMillon, the Business Roundtable’s chairman, said in a statement.

08:00
UK businesses turn less negative for first time since January - survey

Reuters reports that confidence among British businesses improved in June for the first time since January ahead of the latest relaxation of the country's coronavirus lockdown, according to a survey published by Lloyds Bank on Tuesday.

Business confidence rose by three percentage points to its highest level since March but remained deeply in negative territory at -30%, the survey showed.

Slightly fewer companies expected to lay off staff - 41% compared with 44% in May - and the proportion planning a pay freeze edged down.

"While the results suggest the economy may be starting to see some improvement, trading conditions remain difficult for most firms as the majority are still experiencing disruption to supply chains," said Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking.

Confidence among construction firms rebounded strongly by 30 points, followed by smaller improvements for retailers and manufacturers while services reported a fall as the hospitality and education sectors continued to face lockdown restrictions.

The survey was conducted between June 1 and June 15, after the reopening of non-essential retailers but before Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on June 23 that bars, restaurants and other consumer-facing businesses could reopen from July 4.

07:40
Gold to thank further stimulus from central banks – ANZ

FXStreet reports that gold consolidates in a familiar range around $1770 as investors will be listening today to US Fed Chair Powell for insights into future monetary policy amid the fresh outbreak of coronavirus cases, per ANZ Bank.

“Gold was steady, with prices trading just below $1,800/oz as safe-haven assets remain in demand amid the rising infections of COVID-19. Cases have exceeded 10 million worldwide, with an acceleration in America, Brazil and India. This is raising expectations of further stimulus measures from central banks.” 

“Insight into the US Fed’s outlook may be revealed this week, with Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testifying before the House Financial Services Committee.” 

“Investors continue to pile into the physical market. Exchange traded funds are on track for their 14th week of net inflows, according to Bloomberg data.”

07:36
Chinese foreign ministry: China will take retaliatory measures on US ending special treatment of Hong Kong

This comes on the back of the US announcing that it will pare back its special status treatment of Hong Kong, saying that they will take back some trade benefits it affords Hong Kong; adding that further measures are also being evaluated.

07:24
Swiss economic barometer increases significantly in June - KOF

According to the report from KOF Economic Research Agency, the economic barometer increases significantly in June. After the sharp declines of the last three months, the barometer is thus rising again for the first time. However, with a value comparable to April, the barometer is still considerably below its long-​term average. As a result, the prospects of the Swiss economy are very subdued, but brightening up somewhat compared to the previous months.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises by 9.8 points in June, from 49.6 (revised from 53.2) to 59.4. The negative tendencies of the indicator groups of the individual sectors, which had led to a halving of the barometer value since the beginning of the year, now seem to have been halted. The outlook for the manufacturing sector remains at a very low level, but is brightening up the strongest compared to the other sectors. Also starting from a very low level, the sets of indicators from other services and construction are sending slightly more positive signals. By contrast, the prospects for the hospitality industry and those of consumers remain bleak.

Within the manufacturing sector, all sub-​indicators point in an upward direction. The outlook for the metal industry, which has slumped sharply in previous months, is now brightening up most strongly compared to other sectors. In a comparable manner, indicators from the mechanical engineering industry, the wood, glass, stone and earth industry, the electrical industry and the textile and clothing industry are sending a somewhat more positive signal. By contrast, the outlook for the chemical, pharmaceutical and plastics industry remains virtually unchanged.

The incipient trend reversal, starting from a historically low level, within the good producing sector (manufacturing and construction) is mainly due to indicators for the assessment of order backlogs, production and the overall business situation. The assessment of intermediate goods also contributes to the somewhat brighter development of the good producing sector.


07:05
Asian session review: the US dollar rose against the euro and yen

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:00ChinaNon-Manufacturing PMIJune53.6 54.4
01:00New ZealandANZ Business ConfidenceJune-41.8 -34.4
01:00ChinaManufacturing PMI June50.650.450.9
01:30AustraliaPrivate Sector Credit, y/yMay3.6% 3.2%
01:30AustraliaPrivate Sector Credit, m/mMay0.0%0.2%-0.1%
02:30AustraliaRBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
05:00JapanConstruction Orders, y/yMay-14.2% -6.1%
05:00JapanHousing Starts, y/yMay-12.9%-15.9%-12.3%
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, y/yQuarter I2.3%0.7%0.8%
06:00United KingdomCurrent account, bln Quarter I-9.2-15.4-21.1
06:00United KingdomBusiness Investment, q/qQuarter I-0.3%0%-0.3%
06:00United KingdomGDP, q/qQuarter I0.0%-2%-2.2%
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yQuarter I1.1%-1.6%-1.7%
06:30SwitzerlandRetail Sales (MoM)May-14.7% 30.7
06:30SwitzerlandRetail Sales Y/YMay-18.8% 6.6%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mJune0.1% -0.1%
06:45FranceConsumer spending May-19.1%30%36.6%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yJune0.4% 0.1%
07:00SwitzerlandKOF Leading IndicatorJune53.27759.4


In today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against the euro and the Japanese yen.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose 0.18% from the previous day.

The US economy is experiencing a period of" extreme uncertainty", especially in connection with the ongoing attempts to limit the spread of the coronavirus, noted in a speech by Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, prepared to address the financial services committee of the US House of Representatives.

Powell noted the importance of curbing the rate of spread of the coronavirus against the backdrop of the recovery of the US economy after the most significant fall in decades.

"We have entered an important new phase and have done so earlier than expected," reported in the text of Powell's speech. "While we welcome this surge in economic activity, it also presents us with new challenges, particularly the need to contain the virus."

The UK economy in the 1st quarter fell by 2.2% compared to the previous three months, according to final data from the Office for National statistics (ONS). This is the highest decrease since the third quarter of 1979. Relative to January-March 2019, the drop in GDP was 1.7%. Previously, it was announced that the first indicator would be reduced by 2% and the second by 1.6%. Analysts did not expect a revision of both indicators.

07:01
Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, June 59.4 (forecast 77)
06:51
French consumer prices increased by 0.1% year on year in June

According to the report from INSEE, over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should rise by 0.1% in June 2020, after +0.4% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month. This drop in inflation should result from a slowdown in service and food prices and an accentuated fall in the prices of manufactured products. Contrariwise, energy prices should drop less than in May. Finally, tobacco prices should increase year on year at the same pace as in the previous month.

Over one month, consumer prices should edge down by 0.1%, after +0.1% in the previous month. Food prices should sharply fall back, those of services and tobacco should slow down and those of manufactured products should drop more. Contrariwise, energy prices should rebound, after four months of sharp decrease.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should slow down, to +0.1%, after +0.4% in May. Over one month, it should fall back by 0.1%, after +0.2% in the previous month.

06:48
France: CPI, m/m, June -0.1%
06:47
France: CPI, y/y, June 0.1%
06:46
France: Consumer spending , May 36.6% (forecast 30%)
06:35
Swiss retail trade turnover soared in May after easing of COVID-19 measures

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.6% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 30.2% compared with the previous month. 

Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 6.6% in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 30.7%.

Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed an 8.2% increase in nominal turnover in May 2020 compared with May 2019 (in real terms +8.9%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in nominal turnover of 20.8% (in real terms +20.1%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal negative of 3.2% (in real terms –1.7%). Sectors that have been negatively affected by the crisis reported varying growth patterns: While “other household equipment, textiles, DIY and furniture” saw gains (+16.5%; in real terms +18.4%), in the sector “other goods (clothing, chemists, watches and jewellery)” (–20.8%; in real terms –20.2%) turnover fell again although less than in April. Sustained and increased turnover growth were recorded by the sectors “market stalls, retail sale via mail order houses or via internet” (+29.4%; in real terms +30.0%) and “information and communication equipment” (+31.3%; in real terms +42.5%).

Excluding service stations, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted increase in nominal turnover of 32.1% compared with the previous month (in real terms +32.2%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered a plus of 13.3% (in real terms +13.7%). The non-food sector showed a plus of 61.2% (in real terms +61.4%).

06:33
Switzerland: Retail Sales (MoM), May 30.7
06:31
Switzerland: Retail Sales Y/Y, May 6.6%
06:16
UK GDP fell more than forecast in the first quarter

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms fell by 2.2% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarterly estimate; this is now the joint largest fall in UK GDP since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 1979. Economists had expected a 2.0% decrease.

When compared with the same quarter a year ago, UK GDP decreased by 1.7% in Quarter 1 2020, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate. Economists had expected a 1.6% decrease.

This release captures the first direct effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and the government measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus.

The services, production and construction sectors provided a negative contribution to growth in the output approach to GDP in Quarter 1 2020; with services output falling by a record 2.3% in the latest quarter.

Household consumption declined by 2.9% in Quarter 1 2020, revised downwards by 1.2 percentage points from the first quarterly estimate; this is now the largest decline in household consumption since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 1979.

UK GDP increased by 1.5% between 2018 and 2019, revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate.

The households saving ratio increased to 8.6% in Quarter 1 2020, compared with 6.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019.

06:02
United Kingdom: Business Investment, q/q, Quarter I -0.3% (forecast 0%)
06:01
United Kingdom: Business Investment, y/y, Quarter I 0.8% (forecast 0.7%)
06:01
United Kingdom: GDP, y/y, Quarter I -1.7% (forecast -1.6%)
06:01
United Kingdom: GDP, q/q, Quarter I -2.2% (forecast -2%)
06:01
United Kingdom: Current account, bln , Quarter I -21.1 (forecast -15.4)
05:58
China manufacturing PMI rises to 50.9 in June - NBS

RTTNews reports that the manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in June, and at a slightly faster rate, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 50.9.

That beat expectations for 50.4 and was up from 50.6 in May. It also moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The bureau also noted that its non-manufacturing index came in with a score of 54.4. That also beat expectations for 54.1 and was up from 53.6 in the previous month.

05:41
Options levels on tuesday, June 30, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1317 (2049)

$1.1286 (1863)

$1.1268 (1172)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1232

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1186 (866)

$1.1145 (1479)

$1.1098 (2362)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 57535 contracts (according to data from June, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (2362);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2502 (508)

$1.2455 (758)

$1.2372 (850)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2290

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2220 (1292)

$1.2183 (836)

$1.2140 (650)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 16186 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1689);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 19094 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1473);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 29

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

05:31
Japan: Construction Orders, y/y, May -6.1%
05:16
Japan: Housing Starts, y/y, May -12.3% (forecast -15.9%)
02:46
Australia: Private Sector Credit, m/m, May -0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
02:46
Australia: Private Sector Credit, y/y, May 3.2%
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Monday, June 29, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 41.66 3.55
Silver 17.83 0.06
Gold 1772.475 0.09
Palladium 1892.21 0.96
01:01
China: Manufacturing PMI , June 50.9 (forecast 50.4)
01:01
New Zealand: ANZ Business Confidence, June -34.4
01:01
China: Non-Manufacturing PMI, June 54.4
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, June 29, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -517.04 21995.04 -2.3
Hang Seng -248.71 24301.28 -1.01
KOSPI -41.17 2093.48 -1.93
ASX 200 -89.1 5815 -1.51
FTSE 100 66.47 6225.77 1.08
DAX 142.73 12232.12 1.18
CAC 40 35.82 4945.46 0.73
Dow Jones 580.25 25595.8 2.32
S&P 500 44.19 3053.24 1.47
NASDAQ Composite 116.93 9874.15 1.2
00:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI June 53.6  
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence June -41.8  
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI June 50.6 50.4
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y May 3.6%  
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m May 0.0% 0.2%
02:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y May -14.2%  
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y May -12.9% -15.9%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y June 1.8%  
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index June -1.7%  
06:00 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter I 1.8% 0.7%
06:00 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter I -5.6 -15.8
06:00 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter I -0.5% 0%
06:00 United Kingdom GDP, q/q Quarter I 0.0% -2%
06:00 United Kingdom GDP, y/y Quarter I 1.1% -1.6%
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) May -14.7%  
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May -19.9%  
06:45 France CPI, m/m June 0.1%  
06:45 France Consumer spending May -20.2% 25%
06:45 France CPI, y/y June 0.4%  
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator June 53.2 77
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y June 0.9% 0.8%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y June 0.1% 0.1%
10:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks    
11:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) April -7.2% -12.3%
13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y April 3.9% 3.7%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index June 32.3 44.5
14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence June 86.6 90
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
15:05 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
16:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks    
22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index June 41.6  
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index Quarter II 8 -18
23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index Quarter II -8 -31
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, June 29, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.6865 0.24
EURJPY 120.894 0.58
EURUSD 1.1239 0.15
GBPJPY 132.247 0.1
GBPUSD 1.22964 -0.3
NZDUSD 0.64197 0.17
USDCAD 1.36586 -0.17
USDCHF 0.95096 0.39
USDJPY 107.561 0.43

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