Tin tức thì trường

FXStreet reports that strategists at Natixis look at periods when gold prices have risen significantly and identify four usual explanations for a rise in the yellow metal. 

“The first explanation is expected inflation, which drives savers into gold as a safe-haven against a loss of the value of money. The rise in the gold price of 1973-75 and 1978-81 can be attributed to inflation.”

“The second usual explanation is a depreciation of the dollar: gold is then a substitute for the dollar as a reserve currency. The rise in the gold price in 1973 to 1975, 1978 to 1981, 1987-88, 2002 to 2012 and 2020 can be attributed to dollar depreciation.”

“The third explanation is a rise in risk aversion and, as a result, an equity market decline, resulting in investors switching from equities to gold. The rise in the gold price can be linked to the fall in stock market indices in 1987-88, from 2009 to 2012 and in 2020.”

“A fourth explanation is an excessive increase in the quantity of money, which leads to a loss of confidence in money to store savings. This can be the quantity of money in the United States (in dollars) or in the OECD as a whole. Rapid money supply growth may explain the rise in the gold price from 2009 to 2012 and in 2019-2020.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 1.639 million barrels in the week ended September 18. Economists had forecast a decrease of 2.325 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 4.025 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 0.648 million barrels. Distillate stocks plunged by 3.363 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a gain of 1.020 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. reduced by 200,000 barrels a day to 10.700 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 160,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Preliminary data released by IHS Markit on Wednesday pointed to further solid growth in business activity during September, albeit one that was slightly weaker than seen in August.

According to the report, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 53.5 in September, up from 53.1 in August. That was the highest reading since January 2019. Economists had expected the reading to stay at 53.1. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. The overall upturn was underpinned by a quicker rise in production at manufacturers, with a further increase in new orders and the resumption of operations at clients helping drive growth.

Meanwhile, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 54.6 in September from a 17-month high of 55.0 in the previous month. Nonetheless, the rate of expansion was the second-fastest since March 2019 and solid overall. Economists had expected the reading to drop to 54.7. The rate of new business growth was the strongest for 18 months, while employment continued to increase solidly, albeit at a softer pace than in August following a slower upturn in backlogs of work.

Overall, IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index came in at 54.4 in September, down slightly from 54.6 in August, signaling a strong expansion in the U.S. private sector’s business activity.

“US businesses reported a solid end to the third quarter, with demand growing at a steepening rate to fuel a further recovery of output and employment”, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at HIS Markit noted. “The survey data, therefore, add to signs that the economy will have enjoyed a solid rebound in the third quarter after the second-quarter slump. The question now turns to whether the economy’s strong performance can be sustained into the fourth quarter.”

• U.S. payments system handling virus with few disruptions
• We may need payment-system rethink after the virus
• Fed continues to research the potential for central bank digital currencies

• Says that talks with EU are progressing
• Brexit transition period will not be extended
• Things will change no matter what happens
• Still many businesses have not taken all the steps they need to
• Change is what UK people voted for

U.S. stock-index futures traded mixed on Wednesday, as investors weighed Nike’s (NKE) solid quarterly results and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) announcement of a late-stage trial for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate against concerns that economic activity might slow further in the wake of a coronavirus resurgence.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Caterpillar (CAT) resumed with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; target $156

Cisco (CSCO) resumed with a Neutral at UBS; target $41

Deere (DE) resumed with a Mkt Perform at Bernstein; target $244

IBM (IBM) resumed with a Neutral at UBS

Tesla (TSLA) target raised to $360 from $322 at Robert W. Baird

American Express (AXP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities

Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; target raised to $115

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; target raised to $151

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Pivotal Research Group; target raised to $59.75

HP (HPQ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; target raised to $25

• Not even going to think about raising rates until actual inflation is at 2%
• Current state of the world puts downward bias on inflation and upward bias on unemployment
• Judgement on any inflation overshoot will be made closer to the time
• U.S. needs to spend "some time" with inflation above 2% to offset time spent below it
• U.S. should see a "pretty impressive" return of low unemployment
• Overshooting of inflation an "academic point" until economy recovers
• Additional fiscal support will likely be needed for U.S. recovery

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that S&P 500 ideally holds below resistance at 3319/29 to keep its immediate risk lower for a deeper corrective setback with support seen at 3204/00 and potentially the 200-day average at 3105.

“The S&P 500 has rebounded although on slightly decreased volume but still remains capped ahead of its 13-day average, currently seen at 3362 as well as the top of its short-term down channel, seen lower today at 3347.” 

“Support is seen at 3303/01 initially, with a break below 3271 now needed to clear the way for a move back to 3229 and then a cluster of price supports at 3204/3198, which we look to hold at first. A direct break though can expose the 200-day average at 3105.”

“Above 3319/29 would suggest a deeper recovery can be seen back to 3345/47, potentially the 13-day average and 38.2% retracement of the selloff at 3362/70, but with this expected to remain tough resistance.”

EUR traded flat against most other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday after the European PMI data, released by IHS Markit, showed that business activity stalled across the Eurozone in September, as faster growth of manufacturing (led by Germany) was offset by a renewed downturn in the service sector, linked to resurgent COVID-19 infection rates. However, the single European currency strengthened against AUD and NZD, which were pressured by prospects of further monetary easing in Australia and New Zealand.

According to the report, the flash IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 50.1 in September from 51.9 in the previous month. That was the lowest reading since June, indicating near stalling of the region’s economy at the end of the third quarter as rising infection rates and ongoing social distancing measures curbed demand, notably for consumer-facing services. Economists had forecast the indicator to decrease to 51.7 in September. The Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.7 in September from 51.7 in August. That was the highest reading since August 2018. Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 51.9 in September. Meanwhile, the Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index fell to 47.6 from 50.5 in August. That marked the first decline in services activity since June. Economists had forecast the indicator to remain at 50.5 in September.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that Nasdaq 100 has completed a near-term top to maintain the risk for further weakness to the 38.2% retracement of the 2020 rally at 10275.

“The decline has extended further for the completion of a ‘head & shoulders’ as well as a break of the 63-day average and we maintain our view for a deeper corrective setback to the 38.2% retracement of the rally from March at 10275. Whilst we have been looking for an attempt to find a floor here, we note now the risk for an overshoot to the 50% retracement and 200-day average at 9605/9545, where we would then look for more concrete signs of a floor.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. surged 6.8 percent in the week ended September 18, following a 2.5 percent decline in the previous week.

According to the report, refinance applications jumped 8.8 percent, while applications to purchase a home increased 3.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.10 percent from 3.07 percent.

“Mortgage applications activity remained strong last week, even as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and 15-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to their highest levels since late August,” noted Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Both conventional and government refinance activity, and in particular FHA refinances, picked up last week.”

Johnson & Johnson is the fourth drugmaker backed by the Trump administration’s Covid-19 vaccine program Operation Warp Speed to enter late-stage testing, CNBC noted. The other companies are Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE) and AstraZeneca (AZN).

NIKE (NKE) reported Q2 FY 2020 earnings of $0.95 per share (versus $0.86 per share in Q2 FY 2019), solidly beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.50 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $10.594 bln (-0.6% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $9.148 bln.

NKE rose to $131.83 (+12.80%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet reports that gold extends its decline below $1900 but the yellow metal weakness stays seen as a corrective by the Credit Suisse analyst team. 

“Gold extends its consolidation/correction following the move to our base case objective of $2075/80 in August for a test of a cluster of flagged supports at $1897/37, which includes the 23.6% retracement of the rally from the 2018 low. We look for this to continue to hold to maintain the sideways range. Should weakness extend though, we would see scope for a deeper setback to $1765, potentially $1726.” 

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that EUR/USD has closed below key support from its 55-day average at 1.1737 and importantly has also removed its August lows at 1.1710/1.1697 and this finally sees a top established to mark a more significant move lower and a fall to 1.1495/85.

“EUR/USD has maintained the weak tone seen on Monday and has not only closed below key support from its 55-day but has also importantly removed support from the August lows at 1.1710/1.1697. This finally sees a top established to mark a more significant move lower with support seen initially at 1.1637/27, then the 50% retracement of the rally from June at 1.1590.” 

“More important support and our objective remains seen at 1.1495/85 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from March, 61.8% retracement of the rally from June and point-of-breakout from the medium-term base.” 

“Resistance moves to 1.1717/19 initially, then the 55-day average at 1.1737, with the immediate risk seen staying lower whilst below 1.1776/98. A break would throw a question mark over the top, with resistance next at 1.1827.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note that USD/JPY appears to have left the negative phase behind.

24-hour view: “We expected USD to trade sideways between 104.20 and 104.90 yesterday. However, USD rose to an overnight high of 105.07 before extending its gains this morning. While upward momentum has not improved by much, there is room for USD to breach the strong resistance at 105.20. For today, the next resistance at 105.50 is not expected to come into the picture. Support is at 104.75 followed by 104.50.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest narrative from Monday (21 Sep, spot at 104.55), we held the view that USD ‘could dip below 104.16 but oversold conditions suggest that a sustained decline below this level is unlikely’. We added, ‘the weakness in USD appears to be overstretched but only a break of 105.20 (‘strong resistance’ level was previously at 105.50) would indicate that the negative phase has run its course’. USD subsequently dropped to a low of 103.99 before rebounding strongly over the past two days. While 105.20 is still intact, the rapid loss in momentum indicates that the negative phase has run its course. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a correction phase. From here, USD could edge higher but any advance is viewed as part of 104.25/105.75 range.”

The report from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday that the UK’s private sector output continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month, as both manufacturing production and service sector activity recorded weaker rises.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 54.3 in September from 55.2 in previous month, remaining above the neutral 50-threshold for the fourth consecutive month. Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 54.1 in September. The decline in the index mainly reflected the slowdown in growth of the output and new business sub-indexes from August's recent peaks, which was partly linked to an easing of the catch-up effect, while plant capacity was brought back on line through the summer.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index came in at 55.1 in September, down from 58.8 in August, signaling the weakest performance for the sector in three months and marking the first setback for the recovery since the turnaround began in May. Economists had forecast the indicator to rise to 56.0 in September.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index declined to 55.7 in September from August's six-year high of 59.1. This was the lowest reading since June as well, but signaled a sustained increase in private sector output. Economists had forecast the indicator to come in at 56.3 in September.

The report from IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday that the Eurozone’s business activity stalled in September as faster growth of manufacturing (led by Germany) was offset by a renewed downturn in the service sector, linked to resurgent COVID-19 infection rates.

According to the report, Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.7 in September from 51.7 in August. That was the highest reading since August 2018. Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 51.9 in September. The expansion in Eurozone’s manufacturing sector was driven by manufacturing output, which recorded its fastest growth since February 2018, as new orders posted their largest rise seen over this period.

Meanwhile, Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index fell to 47.6 from 50.5 in August. That marked the first decline in services activity since June as the sector recorded the largest contraction of output since May, albeit with the rate of decline running far weaker than seen during the height of the pandemic. Economists had forecast the indicator to remain at 50.5 in September.

The flash IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 50.1 in September from 51.9 in the previous month. That was the lowest reading since June, indicating near stalling of the region’s economy at the end of the third quarter as rising infection rates and ongoing social distancing measures curbed demand, notably for consumer-facing services. Economists had forecast the indicator to decrease to 51.7 in September.

FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse continue to stick to our medium-term target of 1.1000 in EUR/CHF. In the short-term, they see some slight downside risks after the SNB policy meeting on Thursday, followed by some upward pressure heading into the referendum coming Sunday.

“It is feasible in our view that we could observe slight downward pressure on EUR/CHF after the SNB meeting. Such a move might then be followed by a recovery in EUR/CHF towards the end of the week amid positioning squaring ahead of the Swiss referendum. However, we expect the proposal to end the FMP to be rejected, which should cap the upside in EUR/CHF early next week.” 

"Medium-term, we remain of the view that EURCHF could reach our longstanding target of 1.1000. However, we currently do not see scope for even higher levels given the dovishness of the ECB, second wave COVID-19 fears, Brexit uncertainty and the looming US elections.”

NZD fell against most other major currencies in the Asian session on Wednesday, after New Zealand’s central bank, which maintained its cash rate and QE program unchanged at its September meeting,  hinted at further easing to help the country’s economy. 

“Reflecting the possible need for further monetary stimulus, the Committee noted the progress being made on the Bank’s ability to deploy additional monetary instruments. The instruments include a Funding for Lending Programme (FLP), a negative OCR, and purchases of foreign assets,” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy statement said. It was also added that the FLP would be ready before the end of this calendar year.

The report from IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday that Germany’s business activity expanded in September, albeit at a slower pace than in August, as a sharp rise in manufacturing production was partially offset by a setback in services activity.

According to the report, the Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI surged to 56.6 in September from 52.2 in August, with each sub-component imparting a positive directional influence. That was the highest reading since July 2018. Economist had forecast the index to come in at 52.5.  

Meanwhile, the Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index fell to 49 from 52.5 in August. That marked the first decline in services business activity in three months and was well below economists’ forecast for 53.

The headline Flash Germany Composite Output Index came in at 53.7 in September, down from August’s 54.4 and further below the near-two year high seen in July, pointing to a continued loss of momentum in the recovery from the COVID-19 shutdown.

The report from IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday that France’s business activity declined for the first time in four months during September amid widespread reports from panelists of renewed disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the report, the September decline in activity was predominantly driven by a solid reduction in activity at services firms, while manufacturers recorded a slightly faster output expansion than in August.

The Flash France Services Activity Index came in at 47.5 in September, down from 51.5 in August. This was the lowest reading since May and pointed to return into contraction territory. Economists had forecast the index to stay at 51.5 in September.

Meanwhile Flash France Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in September from 49.8 in August, pointing to a rebound in factory activity. Economists had expected the indicator to climb to 50.5 in September.

As a result, the Flash France Composite Output Index fell to 48.5 in September from 51.6 in August. That marked first fall in business activity since May. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 51.9 in September. The drop in aggregate business activity came amid a modest reduction in new work. In addition, new orders fell in both monitored sectors, albeit at a quicker pace among service providers.

FXStreet reports that analysts at ANZ Bank note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% and the QE program unchanged at a cap of $100 B, as expected. The NZD/USD pair bounced-off monthly lows at 0.6599 to near 0.6620 region but has reverted back to the 0.66 level, down -0.44% on the day.

“The RBNZ left the OCR and QE cap unchanged today, as expected, and repeated their forward guidance that the OCR will not change before March.”

“The RBNZ reminded markets that a lower OCR and bank funding for lending programme (FLP) are the preferred options for further stimulus, noting that the FLP would be ready “before the end of this year.” It will almost certainly be introduced before OCR cuts.”

“The NZD bounced initially on the reiteration of forward guidance. However, the flatter curve implied by the pace of the LSAP being reduced by less than the pace of issuance is likely to weigh on the NZD in coming days, as will the Bank's reiteration that foreign asset purchase remain under consideration.”

The survey from GfK showed on Wednesday the consumer confidence in Germany is seen to improve marginally in October, as both economic and income expectations are on the rise, while propensity to buy has taken a hit.

According to the report, GfK’s consumer confidence index registered a 0.1-point drop in the consumer climate forecast for October to -1.6 points from a revised -1.7 in September (originally -1.8).

Economists had forecast the indicator to improve to -1.

Indicator of consumer income expectations climbed 3.3 points to 16.1 points, making a significant contribution to the stable development of the consumer climate. In addition, the economic expectations index surged 12.4 points to 24.1 points, supported by a stable labor market and the falling number of short-time workers. Meanwhile, the gauge for the propensity to buy declined by 5.3 points to 38.4 after four consecutive rises.

"Despite rising infection figures and the increasing fear of tighter restrictions caused by the pandemic, the consumer climate has stabilized. The extensive support packages for business and consumers are clearly suitable measures to help Germany emerge from the worst recession since the war," Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert, noted. "The further course of the infection rate in Germany and the situation in the labor market will decide whether the previous month's downturn remains a flash in the pan and whether consumer mood is able to recover in the coming months."

• It is obvious that exchange rate has had effects on inflation
• ECB will monitor very closely the effects of exchange rate developments, but this is by no way a change in strategy
• PEPP has been extremely efficient, but it is an emergency instrument
• It must be temporary, such flexibility cannot be applied to QE

• Fed's thinking is similar to the BoJ
• BoJ has already adopted overshooting commitment in 2016
• Japanese economy is in severe state, but shows signs of picking up
• Need to keep monetary conditions very accommodative
• Fiscal, monetary policy mix is being effectively achieved as government, BoJ each fulfil their roles
• BoJ is aiming to achieve 2% average inflation using pledge to keep increasing monetary base until inflation stably above that level
• Japan's economy likely to improve as a trend as impact of pandemic subsides
• Risks to Japan’s economic, price outlook tilted toward downside, uncertainty very high
• BoJ buying bonds aggressively to keep bond market stable, help underpin economy
• Closely watching the impact of the coronavirus

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to leave its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.25 percent at its September meeting, as widely expected. In addition, its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to continue with the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) Programme up to NZD100 billion, arguing that “this action is necessary to further lower household and business borrowing rates in order to achieve the Committee’s inflation and employment remit”.

In its policy statement, the New Zealand’s central bank said:

• Committee noted progress being made on Bank’s ability to deploy additional monetary instruments, including Funding for Lending Programme (FLP), negative OCR and purchases of foreign assets;
• Members also agreed that alternative instruments can be deployed independently; noted that FLP would be ready before the end of this calendar year (details on design of the programme would be agreed and published ahead of deployment);
• Economic information available since August has confirmed that level of economic activity remains significantly below that experienced prior to COVID-19 economic disruption; ongoing virus-led activity restrictions had also continued to dampen economic activity, and business and consumer confidence;
• Members agreed that balance of risks to global economic outlook remained to downside;
• Any significant change in economic outlook remain dependent on containment of virus, which is highly uncertain;
• Commodity prices for New Zealand’s exports remain robust, but this has been partly offset by NZD exchange rate moderating the return to local export producers;
• Members agreed that outlook for inflation and employment remained subdued;
• A rise in unemployment and an increase in firm closures are expected, as resource reallocation continues;
• Members agreed that monetary policy will need to provide significant economic support for a long time to come to meet inflation and employment remit, and promote financial stability; agreed they are prepared to provide additional stimulus;
• Committee noted that banking system is on track to be operationally prepared for negative interest rates by year end;
• Committee agreed that severe and prolonged economic downturn would make it difficult to achieve its inflation and employment objectives, and at the same time would pose material risk to financial stability.