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22.09.2020
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI September 47.2  
00:30 Japan Nikkei Services PMI September 45.0  
02:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July 6.1%  
05:35 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks    
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey October -1.8 -1
07:15 France Services PMI September 51.5 51.5
07:15 France Manufacturing PMI September 49.8 50.5
07:30 Germany Services PMI September 52.5 53
07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI September 52.2 52.5
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI September 50.5 50.5
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI September 51.7 51.9
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 55.2 54.1
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services September 58.8 56
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m July 0.9%  
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y July 5.7%  
13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks    
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI September 53.1 53.1
13:45 U.S. Services PMI September 55 54.7
14:00 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September -4.389 -2.256
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln August 282  
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes    
19:00
DJIA +0.27% 27,220.89 +73.19 Nasdaq +1.13% 10,900.65 +121.85 S&P +0.67% 3,303.05 +21.99
16:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 5,829.46 +25.17 +0.43% DAX 12,594.39 +51.95 +0.41% CAC 40 4,772.84 -19.20 -0.40%
14:55
AUD/USD: Further RBA policy moves to dismay bulls - Rabobank

FXStreet notes that the AUD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level in nearly a month at 0.7179 on Monday and economists at Rabobank are seeing a change of tone in the aussie. They forecast AUD/USD trading at 0.68 on a six-month view.

“While the AUD could be undermined by signs of a more dovish RBA and fears about the outlook for global growth, we expect that the safe-haven USD will be lifted by short-covering.”

“The world is becoming accustomed to the notion that measures to contain COVID-19 will be with us for longer. Several central banks in the G10 have touted the idea that a less severe 2020 economic downturn than feared in May will be followed by a weaker recovery in the coming years. Not only does this not bode well for global demand and commodity prices but it could trigger further policy responses from a variety of central banks including the RBA.” 

“We see scope for AUD/USD to pullback towards 0.71 on a three-month view and to fall to 0.68 in six months.”

14:36
Chicago Fed president Evans: Every week and month without renewing fiscal support risks a longer period of slow growth if not outright recessionary dynamics

  • US has been able to return to about 90% of precrisis economy
  • Even as Covid 19 death toll rises, he has marked up his growth forecast
  • Expects unemployment rates to fall to 7% to 7.5% by the end of the year
  • Says inflaiton will continue to be a challenge; will underrun 2% for a number of years
  • A bigger overshoot on 2% inflation means you would get an average of 2% inflation more quickly
  • Would need to have more Fed committee discussion about asset purchases
  • QE is even more complicated now then back in 2012 in rates were higher
  • Fed has more to discuss in terms of further QE

14:17
U.S. existing-home sales increase in line with forecasts in August

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Tuesday that the U.S. existing home sales rose 2.4 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.00 million in August from an unrevised 5.86 million in July. That was the highest level since December 2006.

Economists had forecast home resales increasing to a 6.00 million-unit pace last month.

In y-o-y terms, existing-home sales surged 10.5 percent in August.

According to the report, each of the four major regions experienced both m-o-m and y-o-y growth. Single-family home sales stood at 5.37 million in August, up 1.7 percent from 5.28 million in July, and up 11.0 percent from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $315,000 in August, up 11.7 percent from August 2019. Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 units in August, up 8.6 percent from July and up 6.8 percent from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $273,300 in August, an advance of 7.8 percent from a year ago.

"Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market," noted Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. "Further gains in sales are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3% and with continued job recovery."

14:06
Eurozone consumer confidence improves more than expected in September

The European Commission (EC) said on Tuesday its flash estimate showed the consumer confidence indicator for the Eurozone increased by 0.8 points to -13.9 in September from an unrevised -14.7 in the previous month. That was the highest reading since March.

Economists had expected the index to increase to -14.6.

Considering the European Union (EU) as a whole, consumer sentiment improved by 0.6 points to -14.9.

Despite this month’s gains, both indicators remained well below their long-term averages of -11.1 (Eurozone) and -10.5 (EU).

14:01
Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, September -13.9 (forecast -14.6)
14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , August 6.00 (forecast 6)
14:00
U.S.: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September 21
13:51
Philadelphia-area nonmanufacturing activity continues to expand in September

The Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Tuesday, showed the region's business activity in the nonmanufacturing sector continued to improve in September.

According to the survey, the regional activity index rose 6 points to 8.0 in September, its highest reading since February.

A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.

According to the report, the new orders index fell 3.1 points to 8.5, but remained positive for the third straight month, while the sales/revenues index edged down 0.9 point to 9.8. At the same, the diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level rose 2.5 points to 20.4 in September, recording positive reading for the fourth consecutive month. Elsewhere, the employment indicators – the full-time employment index (5.1) and part-time employment index (8.0) - turned positive for the first time since February after six straight months of negative readings. On the price front, the prices paid index increased 7 points to 17.1 in September, while the prices received index surged 21.8 points to 15.5.

13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.71%, S&P +0.46%
13:24
COVID-19 recession to favor non-US stocks heading into 2021 - Morgan Stanley

FXStreet reports that Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley notes that the US stocks have outperformed their global counterparts for more than a decade, but that streak may soon end, with the COVID-19 recession accelerating that shift.

“China’s recovery leads other major economies by as much as a year. It is the best performing region – the MSCI China Index is up 17% this year – due to a strong pick-up in global trade, despite the overhang of trade tensions with the US. The renminbi is strengthening relative to the dollar, which should support China’s strategy of turning it into an international currency that is held by more central banks.” 

“Most emerging markets are linked to China and will benefit from the weaker dollar and the stronger renminbi. So far, emerging markets have lagged strong gains in commodities, which is unusual and could indicate that they are underpriced. These markets could also benefit from the Federal Reserve’s plans to keep interest rates low, even as inflation trends upward.”

“Europe not only boasts more reasonable stock valuations, but its COVID-19 relief plan could be a game-changer. Europe’s recovery plan could bring about greater fiscal integration across the region and provide much-needed aid to the southern periphery.”

“Japan offers attractive valuations, ongoing economic transformation and an important break in dollar/yen correlations. Indeed, the yen’s still nascent weakening against the dollar could help boost its exports, which would become more competitive.”

13:19
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.13%, NASDAQ futures +0.60%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday, as investors bought beaten-down shares of big technology-related companies, while  awaiting the Fed Chair Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (14:00 GMT).


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

-

-

-

Hang Seng

23,716.85

-233.84

-0.98%

Shanghai

3,274.30

-42.63

-1.29%

S&P/ASX

5,784.10

-38.50

-0.66%

FTSE

5,835.03

+30.74

+0.53%

CAC

4,807.67

+15.63

+0.33%

DAX

12,646.55

+104.11

+0.83%

Crude oil

$39.82


+0.79%

Gold

$1,915.60


+0.26%

12:53
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

161.38

0.02(0.01%)

4540

ALCOA INC.

AA

12.32

0.02(0.16%)

34053

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

38.97

0.15(0.39%)

25727

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,020.00

59.53(2.01%)

113016

American Express Co

AXP

98.2

0.03(0.03%)

17905

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

27.29

0.31(1.15%)

1223

Apple Inc.

AAPL

112.07

1.99(1.81%)

2947607

AT&T Inc

T

28.68

0.05(0.17%)

97029

Boeing Co

BA

157.4

1.05(0.67%)

115620

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

144.8

-0.53(-0.36%)

5752

Chevron Corp

CVX

76.2

-0.10(-0.13%)

8564

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

39.11

0.07(0.18%)

50748

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

43.96

0.03(0.07%)

81307

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

56.31

0.13(0.23%)

660

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

36.5

0.07(0.19%)

35226

Facebook, Inc.

FB

251.6

3.45(1.39%)

147887

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

239.54

0.80(0.34%)

14628

Ford Motor Co.

F

6.9

0.03(0.44%)

177081

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

15.8

0.15(0.96%)

94739

General Electric Co

GE

6.39

0.04(0.63%)

677401

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

30.05

0.05(0.17%)

24408

Goldman Sachs

GS

193.55

-0.45(-0.23%)

6504

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,445.00

13.84(0.97%)

9333

Home Depot Inc

HD

272.44

0.09(0.03%)

6221

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

161.47

0.10(0.06%)

4994

Intel Corp

INTC

49.86

0.14(0.28%)

103185

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

120.55

0.30(0.25%)

5451

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

145.5

0.40(0.28%)

8700

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

95.5

0.19(0.20%)

109560

McDonald's Corp

MCD

215.96

-0.45(-0.21%)

2468

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

204.8

2.26(1.12%)

272124

Nike

NKE

113.88

0.51(0.45%)

44830

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.04

0.02(0.06%)

44224

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

136.51

-0.20(-0.15%)

16098

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

84.3

0.41(0.49%)

3529

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

430.98

-18.41(-4.10%)

1604756

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.15

0.06(0.12%)

19592

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

109.5

0.05(0.05%)

1520

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

40.24

0.34(0.85%)

69399

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

299.31

0.12(0.04%)

2827

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

59.65

0.04(0.07%)

6359

Visa

V

198.69

1.24(0.63%)

13207

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

137.75

0.68(0.50%)

60930

Walt Disney Co

DIS

125.7

0.29(0.23%)

17509

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

60.36

1.27(2.15%)

55170

12:50
Upgrades before the market open

Amazon (AMZN) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein; target $3400

12:44
S&P 500: Resistance at 3319/29 caps for a deeper corrective setback - Credit Suisse

analysts at Credit Suisse apprise that S&P 500 ideally holds below resistance at 3319/29 to keep its immediate risk lower for a deeper corrective setback to 3204/00, potentially the 200-day average at 3104.

“The S&P 500 gapped sharply lower on Monday at the open and although the market subsequently managed to recover a good proportion of these losses in the afternoon the price gap from yesterday morning remains intact and with the market still below its 63 and 13-day averages we continue to look for a deeper corrective setback to emerge.”

“Immediate resistance is seen at 3286/92, with the top of the price gap from yesterday at 3319 now ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower.”

“Support is seen at 3259/57 initially, beneath which should see a move back to 3229 and then a cluster of price supports at 3204/3198, which we look to hold at first. A direct break though can expose the 200-day average at 3104.”

12:15
NZD/USD: The sharp reversal lower comes to a halt ahead of the 55-DMA at 0.6633 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that NZD/USD stages a modest rebound after dropping to two-week lows at 0.6639. Supports at 0.6639/33 and 0.6601/6600 ideally hold for further rangebound trading, with resistance seen initially at 0.6678, per Credit Suisse.

“NZD/USD forcefully extended its rejection from the pivotal July 2019 and current 2020 highs as well as the 200-week average at 0.6783/98 on Monday. However, the correction lower is so far coming to a halt just ahead the 55-day average at 0.6639/33 and with key price support just below at 0.6601, we ideally look for the zone to hold for further rangebound trading.”

“Below 0.6639/33 would see a move back to the 0.6601/00 support, which is a key technical inflection point.”

“We see resistance initially at 0.6678, then 0.6693/96, above would ease the immediate downside pressure for a move back to the aforementioned 0.6783/98 area.”

12:02
UK PM Johnson: Businesses can stay open in a compliant way

  • This is by no means a return to the full lockdown in March
  • Schools, colleges, and universities will stay open
  • Office workers who can work from home should do so
  • From Thursday, all pubs, bars, and restaurants must operate a table service only; they must close at 10pm, this applies to all hospitality venues
  • Businesses will be fined if they breach the rules
  • Maximum of 15 people can attend weddings now
  • Up to 30 people can attend a funeral
  • I must emphasize that if R does not go below 1, there could be more restrictions
  • We should assume that the restrictions go on for 6 months unless there is progress
  • We will not let the virus rip nor have a permanent lockdown
  • Majority of UK economy can continue moving forward

11:52
European session review: GBP recovers as market participants assess BoE governor Bailey’s comments and reports that UK’s PM is to call for less aggressive lockdown than in March

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
07:30United KingdomBOE Gov Bailey Speaks    
10:00United KingdomCBI industrial order books balanceSeptember-44-40-48


GBP rose against its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday after the Bank of England’s (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that the return of COVID-19 reinforced downside risks in the central bank’s forecast and said that the policymakers would do everything they could to support the UK’s economy. He also noted that the BoE’s officials had looked very hard at the scope to cut rates further, including negative interest rates. However, he added that last week's BoE statement did not imply that it would necessarily use negative rates.

Meanwhile, looming coronavirus restrictions and uncertainty over the UK-EU post-Brexit trade relationship continued to weigh on the pound.

The UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to announce new restrictions later today as coronavirus cases in the world's fifth-largest economy continue growing. On the positive side, Johnson will reportedly call for a lockdown that is less aggressive than the first round of measures that was imposed in March.

On the EU-UK trade talks front, the BBC correspondent tweeted that the sources said that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is “coming to London for informal talks tomorrow" and the UK’s Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove is “heading to Brussels on 28th for Joint Committee talks”. Meanwhile, Sky News political editor tweeted that the EU source told her that “talks have been going a bit better than expected & there is a 'window of opportunity'”.

11:26
PBoC: Easing cycle over? - UOB

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, gives her opinion on the latest PBoC event.

“In line with market’s expectation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged in September with the 1Y LPR and the 5Y & above LPR set at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively. The central bank has maintained the LPR steady since May following 30 bps cut in the earlier part of the year.”

“While we do not expect the PBoC to lower interest rates further, the central bank is still expected to continue to maintain strong market liquidity through its open market operations while also continuing to implement its relending facility as well as credit loans to the small and micro businesses via temporary purchase of uncollateralized loans as highlighted by the PBoC at a meeting in August.”

10:59
USD/JPY: Sustained break of the 104.19 July low to reassert the downtrend - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that the Credit Suisse analyst team notes that USD/JPY ideally holds below 104.88 for a clear break of the July low at 104.19, with next support seen at 103.43.

“USD/JPY was unable to sustain its move below the 104.19 July low on Monday but despite the sharp recovery in the afternoon the market has not cleared any resistance of note and we maintain our bearish outlook.”

“Support is seen at 104.37 initially, then 104.19, with a move below 104.00 needed to reassert downward momentum again with support then seen next at 103.43 – the 78.6% retracement of the March rally – and with the “measured objective” from the bearish continuation pattern seen at 103.14 and with the broader risk seen for a move back below 102.00.”

10:32
UK manufacturers’ order book balance unexpectedly worsens in September

The latest survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed on August the UK manufacturers' order books worsened slightly in September, remaining far weaker than their long-run average.

According to the report, the CBI's monthly factory order book balance decreased to -48 in September from -44 in the previous month. This was the lowest reading since June and was well below the long-run average of -14. Economists had forecast the reading to come in at -40. Export order books (-56), however, strengthened slightly from August (-60) but continue to be far below their long-run average (-18) as well.

The CBI also reported that output volumes in the three months to September (-20) declined at a slower pace than in August (-46). It was also expected that output would fall at a slower pace over the next three months (-6). Meanwhile, output prices were seen to be broadly flat in the next three months (-1 from -5 in August).

“While it’s good to see that output volumes once again fell at a slower pace this month compared to August, it is disappointing to see the modest improvements in order books stall, with demand at a still weak level,” – noted Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist. “As manufacturing firms continue to battle against headwinds from a resurgence of the virus, weak global demand and uncertainty over our trading relationships, the Government must step up its support.”

Meanwhile, Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “Manufacturers have endured a very difficult summer and these weak activity figures are, therefore, not surprising. Firms across the country are facing considerable uncertainty as the end of the Job Retention Scheme nears, and concerns about the potential for a no-deal Brexit have escalated as negotiations remain in stalemate.”

10:10
European Commission to use a no-deal Brexit assumption in preparing its autumn forecast - el Economista reports

  • Technical premise will be that EU and UK will not be able to agree on new trade relationship, therefore the rules of WTO will apply from January 1

10:00
United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, September -48 (forecast -40)
09:40
Credit Suisse CEO expects further consolidation in European banking

Reuters reports that Credit Suisse Chief Executive Thomas Gottstein expects more consolidation in Europe's banking sector, despite regulatory hurdles to cross-border deals.

“We have, on one side, negative interest rates, which will put further pressure on net interest margins for all players within the Swiss franc zone and the euro zone and other European countries. At the same time, many countries are over-banked,” Gottstein said.

“So, consolidation, I think will continue,” he said, adding he expected to see both cross-border as well as in-market deals.

09:23
Former White House official warns there’s a ‘high risk’ of a disputed U.S. election outcome

CNBC reports that a former White House trade official said that markets need to pay attention to the “high risk” of a disputed U.S. presidential election outcome as dynamics shift ahead of the vote.

Such an election outcome could happen if a candidate deemed to have lost refuses to concede, or if he questions the legitimacy of the results. 

“I think it’s a high risk and I do think markets need to pay attention to it. I’ve detected a real shift in the election dynamics in the last six to eight weeks,” Clete Willems, a former deputy director of the National Economic Council, told.

“In early August, I think the president ... felt like he was behind, I think right now he feels like he has the wind at his back for a couple of different reasons,” he said.

Willems explained that there’s a general perception that the U.S. economy is improving and the president has “done well in some of the law and order issues” — and that likely works in Trump’s favor.

09:02
Equity Markets to extend the correction another 10% – Morgan Stanley

FXStreet reports that action by Congress and the Fed, and its absence, has paved the way for the recent downturn in equities, putting markets back on a more sustainable footing, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Mike Wilson explains.

“It looks like Congress is having a difficult time coming to terms on the next round of fiscal stimulus. It's not that either side is unwilling to spend more money, it's how much and where does it go. What that really means is both sides want to make sure they get credit from voters in November. But markets are impatient and are likely to exert pressure on Congress to get the deal over the goal line, which may take a few more weeks. The unfortunate and unexpected passing of Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg is also likely to further cloud this ongoing negotiation.”

“While all equities are long-duration assets depending on ten-year yields, expensive growth stocks with cash flows further out in the future are the most vulnerable to rising back end rates. Compounding that risk is the fact that many of these stocks became overpriced in August on the view that long-term rates were never going higher. This is why the Nasdaq has underperformed so much in this recent correction and is likely to continue until the stocks reflect this risk of higher long term rates. I estimate that's another 10% downside from here for major equity markets and perhaps 15% for the Nasdaq.”

08:44
German economy to shrink by 5.2% this year - Ifo institute

Reuters reports that Germany’s Ifo institute said Europe’s largest economy would likely shrink by 5.2% this year, raising its previous estimate for a 6.7% drop.

For 2021, Ifo cut its economic forecast for Germany to 5.1% growth from its previous estimate of 6.4%. It expects the economy to expand by 1.7% in 2022.

The number of people out of work is seen rising to 2.7 million this year from 2.3 million in 2019, before edging down to 2.6 million in 2021 and then to 2.5 million in 2022.

That would translate into a jump in the unemployment rate to 5.9% this year from 5.0% last year. The rate would then drop to 5.7% percent in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, Ifo said.

08:22
USD/CHF to continue the correction higher on a break above 0.9173 – Commerzbank

FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the USD/CHF pair to continue climbing above the 55-DMA at 0.9173.

“USD/CHF has eroded its four-month downtrend. The close above here introduces scope for a deeper correction to the 55-day ma at 0.9173, which is currently holding and potentially the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March peak at 0.9342.” 

“It should be noted that the market is possibly basing and above 0.9342 would suggest a test of the six-month downtrend at 0.9456.” 

08:03
BOE governor Bailey: UK recovery has been quite rapid, substantial, but below the surface, the recovery is very uneven

  • UK recovery in Q3 is a little bit ahead of expectations

  • The economy can be viewed as glass half-full or half-empty

  • Labour demand is weak, unemployment is higher than reported number

  • Investment is also very weak, but housing market is strong

  • We will do everything we can to support the UK economy

  • We have looked very hard at scope to cut rates further

  • That includes negative interest rates

  • Concluded that negative rates should be in the toolbox

  • We do not intend to take any action to tighten policy until there is very clear evidence of significant progress to achieve 2% inflation target sustainably

  • Like the Fed, BOE is flexible in returning inflation back to its target

07:39
USD/CNH: Further rebound now looks likely – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group now sees USD/CNH edging higher in the near-term, although always between the broader 6.7500-6.8300 range.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative view in USD since mid-August. In our latest narrative from last Thursday (17 Sep, spot at 6.7520), we indicated that the ‘decline is oversold but outlook for USD remains weak for now’ and we added, ‘pace of any further weakness is likely to be slower and next major support 6.7165 may be out of reach this time round’. Yesterday (21 Sep), USD rebounded strong and touched a high of 6.8080, not far below our ‘strong resistance’ level of 6.8100. While the ‘strong resistance’ is still intact, downward momentum has waned considerably and this coupled with the still oversold conditions suggest that the month-long negative phase has run its course. From here, there is room for the current rebound to extend higher but for now, any advance is viewed as part of broad 6.7500/6.8300 range.”

07:21
China’s economy ‘well on the way’ to recover from coronavirus - Jim O’Neill

CNBC reports that British economist Jim O’Neill told that China is well on its way to recovering from a coronavirus pandemic-led economic crisis and will continue to be the most important marginal driver of global GDP.

O’Neill pointed to the latest Chinese consumer spending data as a sign of China’s accelerating recovery. Retail sales for August in the world’s second-largest economy rose 0.5% from a year ago, the first positive report for 2020 so far. 

“I suspect Chinese GDP growth could actually end 2020 as net positive still,” O’Neill told CNBC in an interview. “By end 2021, Chinese GDP growth will have possibly even made up for, not only the losses, but the loss in the trend also.” 

Others, including the Asian Development Bank, have also predicted China’s economy will fare considerably better than the rest of the world this year. 

07:02
Asian session review: the US dollar rose against most major currencies

In today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against the euro and fell slightly against the yen.

The yen is also strengthening against most major Asian currencies as investors' interest in risk wanes. This is supported by renewed concerns about the second wave of coronavirus and uncertainty about the adoption of the next package of measures to support the US economy.

"Risk-sensitive Asian markets came under renewed pressure on Tuesday," said Jinyi Pan, market strategist at IG Markets.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.03%.

Traders appreciate the comments of the Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell.

The head of the Fed said that economic measures taken in response to the coronavirus situation have eased the negative effects of the recession caused by the pandemic, but suggested that Congress will probably have to allocate additional funding to support parts of the economy that remain under pressure.

"Our economy will fully recover from this difficult period," Powell said in a speech prepared for a congressional hearing on Tuesday. The Fed will do what it can "for as long as it takes to ensure that the recovery is as active as possible and limit the long-term damage to the economy," Powell added.

06:55
Options levels on tuesday, September 22, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1894 (2489)

$1.1863 (545)

$1.1818 (341)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1741

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1713 (3001)

$1.1688 (1972)

$1.1657 (4464)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 62818 contracts (according to data from September, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4464);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3163 (898)

$1.3078 (302)

$1.3004 (664)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2785

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2753 (361)

$1.2681 (991)

$1.2652 (563)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 14323 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (1191);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 17006 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (2619);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.19 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 21

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:39
GBP/USD shifts the focus to 1.2730 – UOB

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, cable is now expected to extend the correction lower to the 1.2730 region in the next weeks.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same view since last Thursday (17 Sep, spot at 1.2950) wherein ‘1.2763 is likely an interim bottom’ and GBP ‘could consolidate between 1.2800 and 1.3100 for a period of time before attempting to move below 1.2763’. After the strong decline yesterday (11 Sep), a break of 1.2763 would not be surprising but at this stage, is appears too soon to expect a move towards the next major support at 1.2660. All in, we expect GBP to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2730 but GBP has to close below this level before further weakness can be expected. On the upside, a break of 1.2930 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that GBP needs more time before moving lower in a more sustained manner.”

06:21
U.S. economy faces long, uncertain recovery - Fed’s Powell

Bloomberg reports that Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is improving but has a long way to go before fully recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.

“Many economic indicators show marked improvement,” Powell said Monday in the text of testimony.

“Both employment and overall economic activity, however, remain well below their pre-pandemic levels, and the path ahead continues to be highly uncertain,” he said.

In his testimony, Powell repeated earlier remarks that more is required from both fiscal and monetary policy to prevent the pandemic from causing long-term damage to the economy.

“The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government,” he said.

Powell appeared to anticipate questions about the Fed’s troubled Main Street Lending Program, a $600 billion facility aimed at providing credit to small- and mid-sized companies. He said Fed officials had responded to feedback by making adjustments to the program.

06:03
EUR/USD: Market to discount further ECB easing as recovery likely to falter in Q4 - SEB

eFXdata reports that SEB Research flags a scope for EUR/USD to grind lower in Q4.

"We believe there is a good chance that risky assets experience a setback during Q4, pressing EUR/USD temporarily lower," SEB notes. 

"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a negative effect on peoples’ behaviour and production as long as a vaccine is not widely available and mobility restrictions remain in place. This, together with increasing COVID-19 infections, creates a lot of uncertainty regarding recovery in Q4. The recovery gets fully going only when the household savings rate starts falling and the companies start hiring on a large scale. If COVID-19 remains with us for the coming 3-6 months, it could badly hinder the recovery process if private spending gets stuck at low levels. If the recent rapidly improving economic data in Q3 starts to falter and the incoming data points to dismal growth for Q4, it is likely to result in a setback in risk assets. This would work in favour of the dollar and increase expectations of further ECB easing, e.g. rate cuts," SEB adds. 

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Monday, September 21, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 41.61 -2.87
Silver 24.67 -7.78
Gold 1911.73 -1.97
Palladium 2269.82 -3.24
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, September 21, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
Hang Seng -504.72 23950.69 -2.06
KOSPI -23.01 2389.39 -0.95
ASX 200 -41.9 5822.6 -0.71
FTSE 100 -202.76 5804.29 -3.38
DAX -573.81 12542.44 -4.37
CAC 40 -186.14 4792.04 -3.74
Dow Jones -509.72 27147.7 -1.84
S&P 500 -38.41 3281.06 -1.16
NASDAQ Composite -14.48 10778.8 -0.13
00:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
07:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Bailey Speaks    
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance September -44 -43
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index September 18  
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence September -14.7 -14.7
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales August 5.86 5.98
14:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, September 21, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72247 -0.88
EURJPY 123.14 -0.53
EURUSD 1.17652 -0.64
GBPJPY 134.071 -0.77
GBPUSD 1.28107 -0.86
NZDUSD 0.66606 -1.42
USDCAD 1.33066 0.81
USDCHF 0.91412 0.34
USDJPY 104.655 0.1

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