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21.09.2020
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
07:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Bailey Speaks    
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance September -44 -43
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index September 18  
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence September -14.7 -14.7
14:00 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales August 5.86 5.98
14:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testimony    
19:00
DJIA -2.79% 26,885.13 -772.29 Nasdaq -1.38% 10,644.08 -149.20 S&P -2.23% 3,245.50 -73.97
16:02
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 5,804.29 -202.76 -3.38% DAX 12,542.44 -573.81 -4.37% CAC 40 4,792.04 -186.14 -3.74%
14:55
European Commission Vice President Dombrovskis: Alternative of no-deal Brexit is not appealing, but we cannot exclude it

  • There are many outstanding issues
  • Progress on number of key EU asks so far is not sufficient
  • We would need to intensify negotiations substantially if we are to reach successful outcome
  • UK cannot expect special treatment in Brexit talks

14:29
OPEC+ watching Libya's oil restart efforts closely - Reuters reports, citing sources

  • Should wait to see if there is sustainable restart before reacting
  • At this stage, we should watch for some time; but the market is reacting much faster on bearish sentiment
  • Libya's production is less of concern than demand weakening again due to new round of COVID-19 lockdowns

13:44
AUD/USD rally to extend further into next year - HSBC

FXStreet notes that the rally in the Aussie is built more on solid fundamentals than speculative excess. This should mean the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) takes a hands-off approach. All in all, economists at HSBC expect the AUD/USD pair to rise further in 2021.

“The RBA has communicated its relative comfort with FX strength lately. In the minutes for the September monetary policy meeting, the central bank repeated its view that the rally in the AUD is in line with fundamentals, although it would prefer the AUD to be weaker (source: RBA, 15 September 2020). Overall, the rhetoric does not suggest that the RBA views the currency as misaligned.”

“We do not see any warning signs of extreme speculative positioning. There are also strong signs that the recent AUD rally is in line with fundamentals. For instance, the price of Australia’s export basket of commodities has stayed relatively elevated and is now higher than at the start of the year. The rebound in economic activity in China, including infrastructure investment, bodes well for these bullish fundamentals to persist into 2021. Meanwhile, yield differentials have moved firmly in favour of the AUD, given Australia’s economic contraction has been less than that of peers.”

13:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -1.57%, Nasdaq -1.27%, S&P -1.43%
13:28
Before the bell: S&P futures -1.77%, NASDAQ futures -1.44%

U.S. stock-index futures tumble on Monday, as growing COVID-19 cases raised worries about new lockdowns and their implications for the economy. In addition, market participants feared that U.S. president Donald Trump's intention to move ahead with a new Supreme Court Justice nominee might destroy a chance of a stimulus agreement before the presidential election on November 3. 


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,360.30

+40.93

+0.18%

Hang Seng

23,950.69

-504.72

-2.06%

Shanghai

3,316.94

-21.15

-0.63%

S&P/ASX

5,822.60

-41.90

-0.71%

FTSE

5,818.71

-188.34

-3.14%

CAC

4,825.52

-152.66

-3.07%

DAX

12,690.97

-425.28

-3.24%

Crude oil

$40.12


-2.41%

Gold

$1,927.50


-1.76%

13:27
S&P 500: 63-day average at 3292 holds but risks for a deeper setback linger - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that S&P 500 has fallen as expected to test its key medium-term 63-day average, now at 3292. Although this is holding at present, the risk is seen for a close below 3292 with next supports seen at 3285/80 and then 3260/59, per Credit Suisse.

“The S&P 500 remains under pressure after completing a small bearish ‘reversal day’ at its 13-day exponential average and the decline has extended as expected for a test of its 63-day average at 3292.

“Although the 63-day average at 3292 is holding for now we are seeing key supports break for a range of other markets and sectors (notable Tech) and a break and close below 3292 is seen likely. If confirmed this should then see support next at 3285/80 and stretching down to the 23.6% retracement of the rally from March at 3260/59, which we look to try and hold. Should weakness instead directly extend, this would warn of a more protracted and deeper correction lower with support seen next at 3204/00.” 

13:00
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

165.8

-3.75(-2.21%)

9522

ALCOA INC.

AA

13

-0.32(-2.40%)

16869

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

39.7

-0.14(-0.35%)

36807

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

2,905.00

-49.91(-1.69%)

111300

American Express Co

AXP

99.9

-3.54(-3.42%)

7501

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

27.27

-0.72(-2.57%)

30525

Apple Inc.

AAPL

104.53

-2.31(-2.16%)

4744000

AT&T Inc

T

28.71

-0.22(-0.76%)

266579

Boeing Co

BA

158.17

-2.97(-1.84%)

331493

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

149

-3.39(-2.22%)

16625

Chevron Corp

CVX

76.34

-1.87(-2.39%)

32673

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

39.46

-0.35(-0.88%)

114610

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

43.43

-1.43(-3.19%)

483721

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

216.5

-5.47(-2.46%)

1508

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

57.71

-1.58(-2.66%)

5583

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

36.34

-0.85(-2.29%)

149067

Facebook, Inc.

FB

247.48

-5.05(-2.00%)

266032

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

238.5

-4.28(-1.76%)

25244

Ford Motor Co.

F

7.08

-0.15(-2.07%)

242788

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

16.7

-0.30(-1.76%)

111492

General Electric Co

GE

6.7

-0.18(-2.62%)

946749

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

30.39

-1.11(-3.52%)

155857

Goldman Sachs

GS

189.31

-5.55(-2.85%)

53441

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,437.11

-22.88(-1.57%)

9922

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

18.57

-0.38(-2.01%)

1602

Home Depot Inc

HD

269.47

-5.72(-2.08%)

7759

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

165.06

-3.64(-2.16%)

3173

Intel Corp

INTC

49.43

-0.46(-0.92%)

205456

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

120.7

-2.06(-1.68%)

30455

International Paper Company

IP

41

-1.05(-2.50%)

2278

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

147.88

-1.30(-0.87%)

7683

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

94.8

-3.55(-3.61%)

399757

McDonald's Corp

MCD

215.63

-4.64(-2.11%)

12110

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

84.38

-1.43(-1.67%)

5165

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

196.63

-3.76(-1.88%)

487652

Nike

NKE

112.75

-1.91(-1.67%)

25616

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.27

-0.36(-0.98%)

76569

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

135.92

-1.45(-1.06%)

4184

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

83.06

-1.89(-2.23%)

23217

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

450.61

8.46(1.91%)

2602625

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.71

-0.74(-1.47%)

37408

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

108.04

-3.57(-3.20%)

1920

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

39.49

-0.66(-1.64%)

62531

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

300.07

-7.95(-2.58%)

11701

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

59.95

-0.40(-0.66%)

22494

Visa

V

198.7

-3.91(-1.93%)

40302

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

136.28

0.99(0.73%)

231564

Walt Disney Co

DIS

125.2

-3.43(-2.67%)

64537

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

59.38

-1.59(-2.61%)

10571

12:57
Canada’s new housing prices increase more than expected in August

Statistics Canada reported on Monday the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) rose 0.5 percent m-o-m in August, following a 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month. This was the largest monthly gain since May 2017.

Economists had forecast the NHPI to increase 0.3 percent m-o-m in August.

According to the report, new home prices rose in 18 out of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed in August, with Oshawa (+1.8 percent m-o-m), Québec (+1.7 percent m-o-m) and Halifax (+1.6 percent m-o-m) recording the largest gains, supported by low inventory of homes available for sale, coupled with increased demand. On the contrary, new house prices dropped only in Calgary (-0.1 percent m-o-m), due to less favourable market conditions.

In y-o-y terms, NHPI rose 2.1 percent in August, following a 1.7 percent gain in the previous month. This was the largest y-o-y advance since March 2018.

12:45
Upgrades before the market open

Boeing (BA) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman; target $225

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman; target $86

12:44
Chicago Fed National Activity Index declines to 0.79 in August

The Chicago Federal Reserve announced on Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, came in at 0.79 in August, down from an upwardly revised 2.54 in July (originally 1.18), pointing to slower growth in economic activity than in July but still above average. That was the lowest reading since a sharp decline in April.

Economists had forecast the index to come in at 1.95 in August.

At the same time, the index’s three-month moving average fell to +3.05 in August from +4.23 in July.

According to the report, two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but all four categories dropped from July.

Production-related indicators made a positive contribution of +0.23 to the CFNAI in August, down from +1.26 in July. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.63 to the CFNAI in August, down slightly from +0.65 in July. Meanwhile, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to -0.04 in August from +0.53 in July. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI worsened -0.04 in August from +0.09 in July.

12:32
ECB's president Lagarde: We judge that economy still needs that support if recovery is to continue and strengthen further

  • Says recovery in Eurozone remains very uncertain, uneven and incomplete
  • Reiterates that uncertainty of the current environment requires very careful assessment of the incoming information, including developments in the exchange rate

12:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, August 2.1%
12:30
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, August 0.5%
12:30
U.S.: Chicago Federal National Activity Index, August 0.79 (forecast 1.95)
12:21
Dallas Fed Kaplan: Costs of new low rate vow not worth the benefits
  • Once U.S. gets to the point of lower unemployment, not sure rates stay at zero
  • Not sure how much benefit the Fed's new rate vow would deliver, concerned about excess risk taking
  • Fed still has things it could do with asset purchases and for small businesses
  • Fed is looking at ways to make the main street lending program more attractive
12:19
UK PM Johnson's Spokesman: PM is looking at whether further measures are required

  • If that is the case, we will set them out to public
  • COBRA will meet tomorrow morning to discuss what next steps may be required in the coronavirus response

12:07
European session review: JPY, USD, CHF rise amid increased coronavirus fears and heightened political tensions in U.S.

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
10:00GermanyBundesbank Monthly Report    


JPY, USD and CHF appreciated against their major rivals in the European session on Monday as investors looked for safety, as growing COVID-19 cases raised worries about new lockdowns and their implications for global recovery. Increased political tension in the U.S. added to investor concerns.

JPY strengthened against USD and CHF. USD rose slightly against CHF.  

Reports over the weekend revealed rising coronavirus cases in Europe. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that Europe's weekly cases are now higher than those reported when the pandemic first peaked in March. This triggered worries that new lockdown measures could be imposed to curb a surge in infections.

The political tension in the U.S. heightened, as the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg triggered sharp divisions between Republican and Democratic lawmakers over her potential replacement. The U.S. president Donald Trump vowed to swear in Ginsburg's successor "without delay". However, two Republican senators, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, stated that they would not confirm Trump’s nominee before the presidential election on November 3. 

Market participants also fear that Trump's intention to move ahead with a new Supreme Court Justice nominee might destroy any chance of a stimulus agreement before the election.

11:40
New Zealand: GDP now seen contracting at 5.0% this year - UOB

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviewed the latest GDP figures in New Zealand for the second quarter.

“New Zealand’s GDP fell 12.2% q/q in 2Q20, following a revised 1.4% q/q fall in 1Q20 (-1.6% q/q previously). Primary industries were the most resilient in the quarter, down 8.7% q/q. Goodsproducing industries were the most severely impacted, falling 16.3% q/q, whilst services declined 10.9% q/q… Compared to the same period one year ago, New Zealand’s GDP fell by 12.4% y/y, the first y/y decline since the March 2010 quarter.”

“The economic situation is likely to be a key issue in next month's election, which was delayed after an unexpected spike in COVID-19 infection cases in August.”

“The slightly stronger 2Q20 print relative to our expectations of -16.6% y/y has led us to revise our 3Q20 and 4Q20 prints of -6.1% y/y and -3.5% y/y, to -5.9% y/y and -4.2% y/y, respectively. This will see our full year 2020 GDP contraction less severe at -5.0%, compared to our previous forecast of -6.6%.”

11:24
EUR/GBP: Support at 0.9085/41 holds with resistance seen at 0.9209 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that EUR/GBP has stabilized above its 21-day average at 0.9085/79 and analysts at Credit Suisse view weakness as corrective ahead of a move back to 0.9292.

“EUR/GBP has found support as expected from the 21-day exponential average and 50% retracement of the September rally at 0.9089/79 and although we would still not rule out an overshoot to the 55-day average at 0.9041, our bias remains to look for a fresh floor here for a resumption of the core uptrend.”

“Resistance is seen at 0.9172/82 initially, with a break above 0.9209 needed to see the risk turn higher again for strength back to the recent high and top of the trend channel from late April at 0.9292 and 0.9307 respectively.” 


10:59
Australia: Unemployment expected to increase by year-end - UOB

FXStreet reports that according to Economist at UOB Group, Lee Sue Ann, the jobless rate in Australia is seen picking up pace towards the end of the year.

“Australia's jobless rate unexpectedly slipped from a 22-year high of 7.5% in July, to 6.8% in August, as employment surged past expectations helped by part-time work… Despite the improvement in unemployment, the underemployment rate remained elevated at 11.2%, 2.4 percentage points above the level in March.”

“Whilst the latest numbers definitely came as a surprise, job gains were held back by Victoria, where employment fell 1.3% m/m in August.”

“We still look for unemployment in Australia to climb higher into year-end before gradually recovering in later part of 2021, provided COVID-19 developments comes under control as expected (i.e. state borders opened by year-end but international borders not until this time next year) and there is a strong stimulus package in the October budget.”

10:53
UK government's chief scientific adviser Vallance: We are in situation where coronavirus infection numbers are clearly increasing

  • We must not enter into the exponential growth
  • We need speed and action
  • Antibodies fade over time, under 8% of population have been infected; a vast majority of us are not protected

10:38
UK government's chief medical adviser Whitty: There is no evidence this is milder virus than earlier in the year

  • We have to take resurgence of coronavirus cases in UK very seriously; should see this as a six-month problem
  • Virus will have a significant impact on the nation's health if we let it get out of control
  • Some things we are going to do will have an impact on economy, society
  • It is difficult to balance between virus and economy
  • If we do too little, the virus will get out of control
  • If we do too much, it will hit the economy
  • We must reduce social contacts
  • If we do not change the course we will find ourselves in a very difficult place

10:20
USD/JPY stays bearish for a clear break of the 104.19 July low - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that USD/JPY maintains its bearish continuation pattern and is now testing below the July low at 104.19. Economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for a clear and closing break below the aforementioned level, with the next support seen at 103.43.

“USD/JPY weakness is showing signs of accelerating following its break of the potential uptrend from the 2020 low at 105.20/10 and the completion of a bearish continuation pattern and the market is now testing the 104.19 low of July. Whilst a fresh rebound from here should be allowed for, we look for a closing break in due course with support then seen next at 103.43 – the 78.6% retracement of the March rally – and with the ‘measured pattern objective’ at 103.14.”

10:11
UK's Health Secretary Hancock: If a vaccine does come off, we should be back to normal by summer next year

  • Any new virus measures will be different to first lockdown
  • There are relatively few cases in schools and work
  • We can keep schools open
  • Progress is "going well" on a vaccine but no vaccine is certain 
  • Mass vaccine rollout could happen in first few months of next year

09:58
UK house prices rise most in 4 years - Rightmove

RTTNews reports that data published by the property website Rightmove showed that UK house prices increased at the fastest pace in four years in September.

House price inflation advanced to 5 percent from 4.6 percent in August. This was the fastest growth since September 2016.

House prices gained 0.2 percent month-on-month in September, reversing a 0.2 percent drop in August.

Data showed that the trend of up-sizing to a larger home has continued at pace over the past month, leading to record asking prices in the second-stepper sector, made up of three- or four-bedroom homes.

"Needing more space has always been the most popular reason for moving house, but now there's a new urgency for extra space to be able to work from home, which means that there are different sets of buyers competing for the same type of property," Tim Bannister, Rightmove's Director of Property Data, said.

09:43
BoE: Extra easing remains well on the table – UOB

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviewed the latest BoE event.

“As expected, all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the main lending rate at 0.10%. However, much of the attention was on the reveal that the BOE and Prudential Regulation Authority will begin work in 4Q20 on the operational considerations around a move below zero.”

“The overnight commentary from the BOE reinforces our view that the BOE is ready to embark on further efforts to counter the economic slump. It is now a case of when, not if, the MPC eases again. Having said that, we think it is more likely to push the effective lower bound (ELB) by cutting the Bank Rate once more this year, but keep rates positive. A decision on that is possible at the next 5 November meeting.”

09:21
The pandemic will make European bonds more attractive than their US peers - economist

CNBC reports that an economist said that U.S. authorities are spending so much that European debt will become more appealing to investors.

U.S. bonds are traditionally perceived as a safe asset. This means that those who buy U.S. government bonds will have stable returns in the future -- even if these are not very high -- and investors trust the U.S. government will pay that debt back.

However, that could change once the coronavirus pandemic is over.

“Debt in the U.S., public debt, is surging much, much more than what we see anywhere in Europe, so the comparison between buying a European bond or a U.S. bond will actually look more favorable in the future,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, told.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office said in September that public debt is set to “rise sharply to 98% of GDP in 2020, compared to 79% at the end of 2019.”

09:02
German finance minister expects public debt to peak at 80% of GDP

Reuters reports that Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said he expected public debt to reach around 80% of Germany's economic output by the end of the coronavirus crisis, the level it reached at the end of the global financial crisis.

Current finance ministry forecasts foresee public debt reaching 75% of GDP by the end of 2021.

"We will probably see public debt rise on the order of the increase we saw last time, so to around 80%, by the time this thing ends," he said.

08:43
UK household finances continue to worsen in September - IHS Markit

According to the report from IHS Markit, at 40.8 in September, unchanged from the previous survey period, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit UK Household Finance Index (HFI) – which measures households’ overall perceptions of financial wellbeing - signalled a further sharp deterioration in the financial situation of UK households, albeit one that was less severe than the falls recorded at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in April and May. 

Households’ perceptions of their finances in 12 months’ time weakened in September. The respective index was the lowest since May, indicative of a highly pessimistic outlook with regards to household finances over the coming year.

The weaker outlook was driven by a further reduction in the availability of cash and declining savings in September. The respective index for cash availability was the lowest since May, and signalled a marked reduction in the amount of disposable income. As a result, spending declined moderately, although the reduction was the weakest in the current six-month sequence of falls. Amid lower disposable incomes, household savings were again depleted in September. Moreover, the latest fall was the sharpest since December 2013.

Alongside savings, some UK households turned to credit to finance their purchases in September. The survey measure of demand for unsecured credit, such as overdrafts and credit cards, moved further above the 50.0 threshold and was the highest since April.

08:21
USD/CNH: Still scope for a deeper retracement – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the outlook on USD/CNH still remains biased towards the downside.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (15 Sep, spot at 6.7980) we highlighted that the negative phase that started in mid-August ‘has received a new lease of life’. We added, the next level to focus on is at 6.7660 followed by 6.7500. USD subsequently dropped at a furious pace and it cracked 6.7500 yesterday (low of 6.7429). Over the past 3 days, USD has lost a whopping -1.28%, its biggest 3- day loss in 20 months. It is not surprising that the rapid decline is oversold now. That said, downward momentum remains robust and the outlook for USD still remains weak. However, the pace of any further decline is likely to be slower and the next major support at 6.7165 may be out of reach this time round (there is a minor support 6.7300). Overall, only a break of 6.8100 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 6.8230) would indicate that the current month-long negative phase has run its course.”

08:04
Global GDP to hit pre-COVID-19 levels in mid-2021 - Deutsche Bank

Reuters reports that Deutsche Bank said that world economic output will return to its pre-pandemic level by mid-2021 after a stronger-than-expected economic bounce in recent months, but bloated debt levels and a shift in policy could heighten the risk of a financial crisis.

“Global economic recovery from the depths of the COVID-19 plunge this past winter and spring has proceeded significantly faster than we envisioned,” Peter Hooper, Deutsche global head of economic research wrote.

“As Q3 draws toward a close, we estimate that the level of global GDP is about half way back to its pre-virus level, and we now see that journey being completed by the middle of next year, a couple quarters sooner than in our previous forecast.”

Deutsche raised its forecast for global GDP, expecting it to shrink 3.9% this year after predicting in May a contraction of 5.9% for 2020. For 2021, Deutsche raised its growth forecast to 5.6% from 5.3%.

07:39
GBP/USD to fall further over the next few months – HSBC

FXStreet reports that the external challenge, alongside a difficult growth path and limited fiscal flexibility, suggests that the GBP should fall from here regardless, in the view of economists at HSBC.

“The window to sign a free-trade agreement between the UK and EU is closing fast. And there is an increasingly fraught domestic political situation. The Internal Market Bill – which the government itself has admitted breaks international law (albeit in a ‘limited and specific’ way) via reneging on the previously signed Withdrawal Agreement (source: BBC, 8 September 2020) – has created headlines which have swung the GBP back and forth. However, the real question for the GBP is whether these events increase or decrease the possibility of a free-trade agreement with the EU. The mood music from the EU suggests things are getting more difficult, not less.”

“The external challenge, alongside the difficult growth path and limited fiscal flexibility, suggests that GBP should fall from here regardless. We expect GBP/USD to decline further this year.”

07:22
Asian session review: the us dollar fell slightly against major currencies

During today's Asian session, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies, while the yen rose slightly as investors waited for the speech of many Fed representatives. The movement of currencies was insignificant due to a public holiday in Japan.

Investors also expect the FTSE Russell to include China in its global government bond index on Thursday, which is likely to trigger even more investment inflows and support the national currency.

In the short term, analysts said the Fed's long-term interest rate commitments will affect the dollar, although close attention will be paid to comments from FOMC members this week to get more clues about the new approach to inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before congressional committees later this week, while Fed members Lael Brainard, Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Mary Daly and John Williams will also make public speeches.

"The dovish Fed will remain a negative backdrop for the dollar," said Terence Wu, OCBC Bank strategist.

"Powell's testimony (on Tuesday) will attract attention, but for now, the Fed is probably done playing its cards."

07:02
EUR/USD: Potential for a decline to 1.15s - BofA

eFXdata reports that Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for testing 1.115s. 

"EUR/USD made a second lower low rounding out a top. The euro remains well supported in the 1.17s as the market has bought it there five times steering off a larger decline". 

"Price action after the Fed led to a test second lower low in last three weeks. While the bounce in the BBDXY progresses in the coming weeks, we should expect euro to stay within its rising channel (roughly 1.1725-1.2020) and for potential to grow for a decline to the 1.15s," BofA adds.

06:41
USD/JPY now looks to 105.20 – UOB

FXStreet reports that the negative view in USD/JPY is seen alleviated on a break above 105.20, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative view in USD since early last week (see annotations in the chart below) and in our latest update from last Thursday (17 Sep, spot at 105.00), we highlighted that ‘the outlook remains weak’ and we were of the view that ‘the July’s low of 104.16 may be out of reach this time round’. However, downward momentum has been stronger than expected as USD dropped to a low of 104.25 last Friday. From here, USD could dip below 104.16 but oversold conditions suggest that a sustained decline below this level is unlikely (next support is at 103.80). All in, the weakness in USD appears to be overstretched but only a break of 105.20 (‘strong resistance’ level was previously at 105.50) would indicate that the negative phase has run its course.”

06:21
British manufacturers see little sign of 'V'-shaped recovery

Reuters reports that a business survey showed on Monday that british manufacturers see no evidence of a 'V'-shaped recovery from the coronavirus pandemic underway and many are planning to slash investment, 

The Make UK industry association and accountants BDO said output and orders had improved from historic lows struck last quarter during the depths of the pandemic.

But the survey's quarterly gauge of investment intentions fell to -32% from -26%, almost touching depths last seen in the financial crisis.

The possibility that Britain and the European Union fail to agree a trade deal before the end of the Brexit transition period would be a "final nail in the coffin" for many manufacturers, said Stephen Phipson, chief executive at Make UK.

Like other indicators of the labour market, manufacturers' employment expectations deteriorated in the latest Make UK/BDO survey, although its gauge of future output improved somewhat.

05:59
People's Bank of China keeps benchmark rates on hold

RTTNews reports that China retained its benchmark rates for the fifth straight month as the economy continued to log robust recovery.

The one-year loan prime rate was retained at 3.85 percent and the five-year loan prime rate was maintained at 4.65 percent. The interest rates were expected to be retained today as the rate on its medium-term lending facility or MLF was maintained early this month.

The loan prime rate is fixed monthly based on the submission of 18 banks, though Beijing has influence over the rate-setting. This new lending rate replaced the central bank's traditional benchmark lending rate in August 2019.

With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the People's Bank of China appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed, the next move in the LPR is likely to be an increase early next year, Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics said.

05:18
Options levels on monday, September 21, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1961 (3655)

$1.1935 (2490)

$1.1914 (510)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1866

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1813 (895)

$1.1789 (1195)

$1.1760 (3018)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 63158 contracts (according to data from September, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4495);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3224 (823)

$1.3148 (606)

$1.3060 (664)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2955

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2847 (708)

$1.2823 (855)

$1.2795 (522)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 14287 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (1201);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 16364 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (2619);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 18

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Friday, September 18, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 42.85 -0.51
Silver 26.76 -0.85
Gold 1950.268 0.32
Palladium 2347 0.98
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Friday, September 18, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 40.93 23360.3 0.18
Hang Seng 114.56 24455.41 0.47
KOSPI 6.23 2412.4 0.26
ASX 200 -18.7 5864.5 -0.32
FTSE 100 -42.87 6007.05 -0.71
DAX -91.87 13116.25 -0.7
CAC 40 -61.32 4978.18 -1.22
Dow Jones -244.56 27657.42 -0.88
S&P 500 -37.54 3319.47 -1.12
NASDAQ Composite -117 10793.28 -1.07
00:30
Schedule for today, Monday, September 21, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
10:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report    
12:30 U.S. Chicago Federal National Activity Index August 1.18 1.95
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM August 0.4%  
12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY August 1.7%  
12:45 Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks    
14:00 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks    
22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak    
22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, September 18, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72873 -0.28
EURJPY 123.806 -0.22
EURUSD 1.18408 -0.01
GBPJPY 135.099 -0.54
GBPUSD 1.29207 -0.35
NZDUSD 0.67556 0.15
USDCAD 1.32025 0.34
USDCHF 0.91114 0.34
USDJPY 104.554 -0.17

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