CFD Markets Analysis: News and forecasts for 21 tháng 2 2025

21:56

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips 1.20% as bullish momentum fades below $33.00

Silver retreats to $32.54 after failing to hold above key $33.00 level.
RSI signals mixed momentum, with downside risks if $32.00 support breaks.
Next resistance at $33.20, while key support lies at 100-day SMA near $31.12.

Silver's price retreats on Friday and fails to capitalize on falling US yields. According to the 10-year T-note, yields tumbled almost eight basis points to 4.431% at the time of writing. The XAG/USD trades at $32.54, down 1.20%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

XAG/USD’s uptrend remains in place, but failure to end the day/week above $33.00 exacerbated Silver’s plunge. Bullish momentum has faded, as depicted by a Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gives mixed signals. The RSI is bullish, but the slope is aiming downwards.

Buyers must clear the February 20 high at $33.20 for a bullish continuation. Once done, further upside Is seen, with the next resistance being the February 14 peak at $33.39 ahead of the $34.00 figure.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $32.00, this would exert downward pressure on the precious metal. the first support would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SM) at 31.12, followed by the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, each at 30.70 and 30.46.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

21:51

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears deepen losses as pair hits multi-week lows

AUD/JPY extends its decline, falling sharply and breaking below the 20-day SMA.
RSI remains in negative territory, reflecting intensifying bearish momentum.
MACD histogram prints rising red bars, signaling increasing downside pressure.

The AUD/JPY cross continued its downward trajectory on Friday to around 94.80, posting sharp losses and breaking through key technical support levels. The pair now trades at its lowest level in over two weeks, signaling that bears have taken firm control. The sustained drop below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) highlights the shift in market sentiment, with sellers dominating the current trend.

Technical indicators reinforce the negative outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged deeper into negative territory, suggesting that bearish momentum is accelerating and that the pair could remain under pressure in the near term. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing rising red bars, signaling growing downside momentum as sellers continue to gain ground.

Looking ahead, unless the pair stages a strong recovery back above the 20-day SMA, the bearish outlook is likely to persist. The next support zone could emerge around the 94.50 area, while any attempt at recovery would likely face resistance near the 20-day SMA near 96.00. A decisive break above this level would be needed to shift sentiment and provide buyers with a foothold, though for now, the bears remain in command.

AUD/JPY daily chart

20:57

Australian Dollar faces pressure after US PMI

Aussie stalls near 0.6400 despite earlier gains.
Post-PMI sentiment dims risk appetite and benefits the USD.
RBA’s measured stance limits deeper easing bets and might limit the downside.

The AUD/USD pair faces offers pressure near 0.6400 after the release of the United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for February. Although traders deem President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda less disruptive than initially feared, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious interest rate cut stance also curbs the Aussie’s attempt to extend its recent upswing.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie deflates as US PMI disappoints

The US Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, surpassing the 51.5 consensus, yet the Services PMI contracted to 49.7, a significant miss versus 53.0 estimates—undermining broader economic optimism.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped below expectations and the five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation index rose above forecasts, reflecting persistent price concerns.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 106.60, initially boosted by decent manufacturing data but later tempered by disappointing Services figures.
Tariff jitters persist despite signs that Trump’s proposed measures may be less severe, as allies continue negotiations. The market remains wary of potential escalations against key trading partners, including China.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened modestly, although RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish rhetoric, highlighting the risk of pausing rate cuts, may offer some support.
The RBA’s earlier 25 basis points reduction to 4.10% was framed as a cautious move amid signs of cooling inflation. Analysts anticipate only one more 25 basis points cut in 2025 unless Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends shift notably.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls fail to extend rally, pair hovers below key resistance

The AUD/USD pair retreated after testing the 0.6400 mark, surrendering a portion of earlier gains in light of the US PMI results. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a higher positive zone but is now declining, suggesting a softening bullish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flatter green bars, pointing to a slowdown in momentum.

Although the pair remains above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, the failure to break the 100-day Simple Moving Average underscores a possible consolidation phase, leaving traders poised for further tariff or Fed policy developments to set the next directional cue.

Australian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

20:48

Gold price holds near record highs, set for eight straight weekly gain

Gold touches all-time high of $2,954 amid trade policy uncertainty.
Trump expands tariffs to lumber and soft commodities, adding market jitters.
US data mixed: Manufacturing PMI improves, but Services PMI contracts.

Gold price slides late on Friday, poised to end the week positively, accumulating eight straight weeks of gains that pushed the yellow metal to all-time highs of $2,954. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $2,940, down 0.15%.

The financial markets' narrative has not changed as US President Donald Trump continues with rhetoric related to tariffs. In addition to imposing 25% tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chips, Trump broadened duties to lumber and other soft commodities.

This fueled the rally in Bullion prices as investors seeking safety drove prices higher amidst uncertainty about US trade policies. Meanwhile, geopolitics took a second stage as there was some progress in the discussion to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which relieved the markets.

Data-wise, business activity in the United States was mixed. The manufacturing PMI improved. Conversely, the Services PMI plunged for the first time since January 2023.

Other data showed that Existing Home Sales plunged, and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Final reading for February deteriorated further.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price fails to capitalize on US yields drop

The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls nine basis points (bps) and yields 4.416%.
US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop four basis points to 1.996%, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
US S&P Global revealed the Manufacturing PMI in February expanded by 51.6, up from 51.2, exceeding forecasts. The Services PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 49.7.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February dipped from 71.1 to 64.7. American consumers’ inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.3% to 4.3% as foreseen, and for a five-year period, they are anchored at 3.5%, up from 3.2% revealed in the previous month.
The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes from Wednesday revealed that Trump’s trade and immigration policies fueled concerns over rising prices.
The World Gold Council revealed that central bank purchases rose more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory.
Money market fed funds futures are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price faces resistance and retreats

Gold price remains upwardly biased, yet the trend seems exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing ground with the RSI’s exiting from overbought territory opening the door for a retracement in Bullion prices.

The first key support area to look at is $2,900. Once surpassed, sellers would target the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 daily low of $2,864. Conversely, if XAU/USD rises past $2,954, the first resistance would be the psychological $2,950, followed by $3,000.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.