Gold price (XAU/USD) loses traction during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The softer US Dollar (USD) and a decline in US Treasury bond yields might lift the precious metal, Gold price currently trades around $1,978, losing 0.14% on the day.
The US housing data for October came in better than expected on Friday. The Housing Starts climbed 1.9% MoM to 1.372M, better than the estimation of 1.35M. Building Permit grew 1.1% to 1.487M, above the market consensus of 1.45M. Many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials pushed back against rate cut estimates for 2024, while money markets show traders have priced in 100 basis points (bps) of easing towards December of the next year.
Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) President Susan Collins voiced optimism on Friday that the central bank might bring down inflation without causing major harm to the labor market by being "patient" with the next interest rate rises. Additionally, Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that inflation is on pace to meet the Fed's target as long as house price pressures decrease.
Meanwhile, the US dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the USD measured against a basket of six world currencies, posts its worst weekly decline since mid-July, hovering around 103.45. That being said, a weaker USD might boost the USD-denominated gold.
Last week, US President Joe Biden and China President Xi Jinping met each other for the first time since November 2022. Although the meeting brought certain concrete outcomes, it is doubtful that US-China ties will improve much in the near future. A renewed tension between the two world’s largest economies might benefit safe-haven assets like gold.
Moving on, gold traders will closely monitor the FOMC Meeting Minutues on Tuesday for further impetus. Later this week, the US Durable Goods Orders will be due on Wednesday. The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November will be released on Friday. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the gold price.
The AUD/USD pair holds above 0.6500 during the early Asian session on Monday. Meanwhile, the US dollar Index (DXY) posts its worst weekly decline since mid-July, hovering around 103.80. That being said, a weaker USD and lower US Treasury bond yields might lend some support to the pair this week. At the press time, the pair is trading at 0.6513, unchanged for the day.
On Friday, the US Housing Starts and Building Permits for October data came in stronger than expected. Housing Starts rose 1.9% MoM to 1.372M while Building Permits climbed 1.1% to 1.487M. The readings suggested that the residential construction sector may be finding a base.
Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) President Susan Collins said on Friday that she expressed optimism that the central bank can lower inflation without causing significant damage to the labor market by being "patient" with any further interest rate moves. Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he felt inflation is on track toward the Fed's target, as long as housing price pressures ease, which he expects.
Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Tuesday will offer some hints about the improvement in inflation and provide light on how much impact rising bond rates had on the Fed's decision to hold still at that meeting.
On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Marion Kohler said inflation will continue to decline but won't reach the top end of the RBA's 2%-3% target until the end of 2025. The RBA raised the interest rate last week to a 12-year high of 4.35% due to inflation was not lower quickly enough. The market anticipates that RBA is likely to hike again in the first half of 2024.
There will be no data release from the Australian docket on Monday. Market players await the RBA Meeting Minutes and RBA Governor Bullock's speech on Tuesday and the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. The attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November on Friday. These data could give a clear direction to the AUD/USD pair.
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