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15.09.2020
23:50
Japan: Trade Balance Total, bln, August 248.3 (forecast -37.5)
22:45
New Zealand: Current Account , Quarter II 1.828 (forecast 0.595)
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Leading Index August 0.1%  
06:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m August 0.5% -0.3%
06:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) August -5.7% -4.9%
06:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) August 1.8% 0.3%
06:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) August -0.9% -0.7%
06:00 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) August 0.3% 0.2%
06:00 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y August 1.6% 0.6%
06:00 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y August 1.8%  
06:00 United Kingdom HICP, m/m August 0.4% -0.6%
06:00 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y August 1% 0%
09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted July 21.2  
12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases July -13.5  
12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY August 2.7%  
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto August 1.9% 0.9%
12:30 U.S. Retail sales August 1.2% 1%
12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m August -0.1% 0.1%
12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y August 0.7%  
12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y August 0.1% 0.4%
14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index September 78 78
14:00 U.S. Business inventories July -1.1% 0.1%
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September 2.032 2.049
18:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections    
18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference    
20:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows July -67.9  
20:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows July 113  
22:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter II -1.6% -12.8%
22:45 New Zealand GDP y/y Quarter II -0.2%  
19:02
DJIA +0.04% 28,005.60 +12.27 Nasdaq +0.99% 11,166.26 +109.61 S&P +0.43% 3,398.19 +14.65
16:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,105.54 +79.29 +1.32% DAX 13,217.67 +24.01 +0.18% CAC 40 5,067.93 +16.05 +0.32%
14:55
EUR/GBP to reach the 0.9325 zone on new Boris' Withdrawal Agreement - Rabobank

FXStreet reports that the pound suffered a significant sell off last week with the EUR/GBP pair surpassing the 0.92 level and economists at Rabobank continue to view the pound as a vulnerable currency, therefore, a move towards the last year high at 0.9325 is likely in the next weeks.

“The current outlook for the pound is mired by an increased chance of another bout of parliamentary chaos and/or risk that the UK will be trading with the EU on WTO terms in the New Year. Even if a trade deal is struck, the tight timeframe left for the negotiations suggests that it is unlikely to be a comprehensive agreement. This suggests that beyond an initial relief rally, a trade deal could fail to garner the enthusiasm of the investment community.”

“Even though EUR/GBP sailed past our long-term target of 0.92 at the end of last week, we would not rule out further losses for the pound in the current environment and certainly see scope for more volatility. Bearing in mind also that the EUR has displayed broad-based strength in recent months, an escalation of tensions between the EU and UK governments with respect to the latter’s intention to break its commitment to the Withdrawal Agreement could threaten a move towards last year’s high in the 0.9325 area in the coming weeks.”

14:29
Fed: Dovish tone to weigh on the dollar - TDS

FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities analyze three possible scenarios for the Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement due out on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A dovish tone is set to reinforce the cyclical headwinds facing the USD and soggy trading tone, but likely supportive of risk appetite. 105.20 and 1.1917 in USD/JPY and EUR/USD will be key pivots.

“Hawkish (13%): Minimal changes to forward guidance and characterization of QE in the statement; more upbeat tone on the outlook following stronger-than-expected data recently... Suggestion that Fed may have eased enough given better-than-expected data recently. USD/JPY 106.20 EUR/USD 1.1760.”

“Base Case (65%): No inflation-outcome-based specificity in forward guidance yet, but AIT reflected in the statement and QE wording changed to make financial conditions broadly the main focus. Little change in tone on the economy... Emphasis on downside risks. Suggestion that dovish forward guidance could be made more dovish when communications part of review concludes, and that QE could be made more accommodative via the composition of purchases. USD/JPY 105.20 EUR/USD 1.1975.”

“Dovish (22%): Introduction of specific inflation-outcome-based forward guidance, such as a minimum 2.5% pace before tightening; QE made more long-end focused, boosting stimulus in effort to raise inflation and lower unemployment... Unambiguous signal that officials will back up their words on AIT with action. USD/JPY 104.80 EUR/USD 1.2010.”

14:10
WTO rules that U.S. tariffs on certain goods from China violate trade rules

WTO panel issued a report regarding the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods today. The page 65 of the document reveals that the Panel concludes that "the United States has not met its burden of demonstrating that the measures are provisionally justified under Article XX(a) of the GATT 1994" and "recommends that the United States bring its measures into conformity with its obligations under the GATT 1994."

14:07
Canada’s manufacturing sales surge less than anticipated in July

Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Tuesday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales jumped 7.0 percent m-o-m in July to CAD53.13 billion, following a revised 23.0 percent m-o-m climb in June (originally a 20.7 percent m-o-m surge).

Economists had forecast an 8.7 percent m-o-m advance for July.

According to the survey, higher sales in the transportation equipment industry (+24.1 percent m-o-m) were the major contributor to the July gain. Overall, sales advanced in 13 of 21 industries, representing 68 percent of total Canadian manufacturing. Notable gains in sales were also posted by such industries as petroleum and coal product (+13.0 percent m-o-m) and plastic and rubber product (+15.1 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, food manufacturing (-1.4 percent m-o-m) and primary metal (-1.4 percent m-o-m) made the biggest negative contribution to the growth.

Overall, sales of durable goods industries surged 10.4 percent m-o-m in July, while sales of non-durable goods industries rose 3.3 percent m-o-m.

13:42
U.S. industrial production rises 0.4 percent in August

The Federal Reserve reported on Tuesday the U.S. industrial production rose 0.4 percent m-o-m in August, following a revised 3.5 percent m-o-m climb in July (originally a 3.0 percent m-o-m gain).

Economists had forecast industrial production would increase 1.0 percent m-o-m in August.

According to the report, manufacturing output grew 1.0 percent m-o-m in August, although the gains for most manufacturing industries have gradually slowed since June. Meanwhile, the output of utilities fell 0.4 percent m-o-m in August and mining production decreased 2.5 percent m-o-m as Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura caused steep but temporary declines in oil and gas extraction and well drilling.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage points m-o-m to 71.4 percent in August. That was in line with economists’ forecast but 8.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2019) average.

In y-o-y terms, the industrial output dropped 7.7 percent in August, following a revised 7.4 percent plunge in the prior month (originally an 8.2 percent decline).

13:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.77%, Nasdaq +1.12%, S&P +0.85%
13:28
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.88%, NASDAQ futures +1.16%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday, as upbeat data out of China and Europe revived optimism around a global economic rebound, while investors waited for a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, set to begin later today.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,454.89

-104.41

-0.44%

Hang Seng

24,732.76

+92.48

+0.38%

Shanghai

3,295.68

+16.87

+0.51%

S&P/ASX

5,894.80

-4.70

-0.08%

FTSE

6,103.56

+77.31

+1.28%

CAC

5,082.15

+30.27

+0.60%

DAX

13,248.54

+54.88

+0.42%

Crude oil

$37.70


+1.18%

Gold

$1,974.70


+0.56%

13:16
U.S.: Capacity Utilization, August 71.4% (forecast 71.4%)
13:16
U.S.: Industrial Production, August 0.4% m/m (forecast 1%)
13:16
U.S.: Industrial Production, August -7.7% y/y
13:02
U.S. President Trump: U.S. could have COVID-19 vaccine between four to eight weeks - Fox News

  • Peace deal with Israel and UAE will be signed today
  • Iran will "pay for it" if they assassinate U.S. ambassador
  • He will make deal with Iran in his second term

12:56
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

3M Co

MMM

170.16

1.70(1.01%)

16891

ALCOA INC.

AA

14.25

0.20(1.42%)

1779

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

43.15

0.15(0.35%)

26624

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,140.00

37.03(1.19%)

53824

American Express Co

AXP

108.02

0.75(0.70%)

3444

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

29.77

0.37(1.26%)

6396

Apple Inc.

AAPL

118.35

2.99(2.60%)

2464634

AT&T Inc

T

29.27

0.13(0.45%)

59519

Boeing Co

BA

166.71

1.36(0.82%)

70185

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

154.9

1.39(0.91%)

4451

Chevron Corp

CVX

77.85

0.56(0.72%)

9974

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

40.54

0.17(0.42%)

38076

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

48.74

0.59(1.23%)

357164

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

59.94

0.51(0.86%)

931

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

36.97

0.31(0.85%)

62458

Facebook, Inc.

FB

270.69

4.54(1.71%)

129083

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

237.3

0.96(0.41%)

65176

Ford Motor Co.

F

7.17

0.05(0.70%)

76753

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

16.55

0.19(1.16%)

28178

General Electric Co

GE

6.18

0.03(0.49%)

234388

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

31.1

-0.08(-0.26%)

29926

Goldman Sachs

GS

202.87

1.53(0.76%)

5416

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,530.00

10.72(0.71%)

4818

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

19.34

0.01(0.05%)

1131

Home Depot Inc

HD

284.25

3.60(1.28%)

3671

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

169.4

0.93(0.55%)

938

Intel Corp

INTC

49.58

0.17(0.34%)

114517

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

122.94

0.85(0.70%)

1962

International Paper Company

IP

41.04

0.25(0.61%)

947

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

149.26

0.91(0.61%)

4026

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

103.28

0.81(0.79%)

15150

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

84.5

0.34(0.40%)

2597

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

207.69

2.28(1.11%)

172686

Nike

NKE

119.9

0.62(0.52%)

7936

Pfizer Inc

PFE

37.31

0.30(0.81%)

80308

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

139.4

0.77(0.56%)

1357

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

87.57

0.94(1.09%)

18811

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

439.43

19.81(4.72%)

2134217

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

50.97

0.26(0.51%)

14639

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

115.06

0.60(0.52%)

296

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

39.23

0.46(1.19%)

11324

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

310.54

1.97(0.64%)

527

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

60.53

0.21(0.34%)

4096

Visa

V

206.6

1.62(0.79%)

11227

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

138.45

1.13(0.82%)

65031

Walt Disney Co

DIS

131.27

0.02(0.02%)

19043

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

64

1.42(2.27%)

20223

12:53
Manufacturing activity in the New York region expands more than forecast in September

The report from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday that manufacturing activity in the New York region expanded at a solid pace in early September.

According to the survey, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index rose from 3.7 in August to 17.0 in September.

Economists had expected the index to come in at 6.0.

Anything below zero signals contraction.

According to the report, the new orders index increased nine points to 7.1, pointing to a modest advance in orders, and the shipments index rose seven points to 14.1, indicating a significant gain in shipments. Meanwhile, the employment index held steady at 2.6, indicating little change in employment levels. Elsewhere, unfilled orders and inventories continued to decline, and delivery times were somewhat longer. On the price front, the prices paid index climbed nine points to 25.2, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index edged up to 6.5, its highest level since March, indicating that selling prices rose for the second consecutive month.

12:42
Initiations before the market open

Alphabet A (GOOG/L) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; target $1955

Facebook (FB) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; target $330

Netflix (NFLX) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; target $590

Twitter (TWTR) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets

12:41
U.S. import-price index increases more than expected in August

The Labor Department reported on Tuesday the import-price index, measuring the cost of goods ranging from Canadian oil to Chinese electronics, rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in August, following a revised 1.2 percent m-o-m climb in July (originally a 0.7 percent m-o-m gain). Economists had expected prices to advance 0.5 percent m-o-m last month.

According to the report, the August advance was driven by рhigher prices for both fuel (+3.3 percent m-o-m) and nonfuel (+0.7 percent m-o-m) imports.

Over the 12-month period ended in August, import prices decreased 1.4 percent, due to a tumble in fuel prices (-22.2 percent), which was partly offset by a gain in nonfuel prices (+0.8 percent).

Meanwhile, the price index for U.S. exports went up 0.5 percent m-o-m in August, following a revised 0.9 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month (originally an 0.8 percent m-o-m rise).

In August, rising nonagricultural prices (+0.8 percent m-o-m) more than offset declining agricultural prices (-2.2 percent m-o-m).

Over the past 12 months, the price index for exports fell 2.8 percent, reflecting declines in prices of both agricultural (-2.9 percent) and nonagricultural (-2.8 percent) exports.

12:31
U.S.: NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index , September 17 (forecast 6)
12:31
Canada: Manufacturing Shipments, July 7% m/m (forecast 8.7%)
12:31
U.S.: Import Price Index, August 0.9% m/m (forecast 0.5%)
12:19
GBP/USD: Sharply weaker and more volatile pound as market price in higher no-deal Brexit risk - MUFG

FXStreet notes that there appears no easy quick way out to resolve the latest gridlock in UK-EU trade negotiations. Meanwhile, after heavy selling last week, the pound has rebounded this week but the outlook remains grim for the sterling. A deal is only probable very late in the day now and hence any short-term GBP bounce will not last with potential big GBP declines still to come, according to MUFG Bank.

“The UK government argues that the Internal Market Bill will act only as a ‘safety net’ but is viewed in Brussels as directly reintroducing the primary risk that both sides negotiated to avoid – the risk of a ‘hard border’ on the island of Ireland.”

“Understandably the EU sees the Internal Market Bill as a direct breach of the Northern Ireland protocol which was designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland at the cost of creating a customs border in the Irish Sea. The EU has given the UK government until the end of this month to amend the bill and threatened legal action. The EU could refer a breach of the Withdrawal Agreement to a tribunal and ultimately the European Court of Justice either of which could end in fines.”

“A WTO trading relationship with the EU is not at all priced and in that context, GBP/USD falling to around the 1.2000-level is a realistic prospect if market participants see further reason to credibly expect no deal to happen.”

“We don’t expect any policy change from the BoE this week but the need to cut rates and/or expand QE is growing. We expect that in February 2021 but we shouldn’t rule it out by November. If we continue to head toward no EU-UK trade deal, BoE action will be inevitable. All of these factors will be key for GBP direction over the short-term and for now mainly point to further GBP downside ahead.”

12:04
Germany's Research Minister Karliczek: We will not take risky shortcuts when developing COVID-19 vaccine - Reuters

  • We will not deviate from this line in Germany or in Europe
  • Says she believes that all countries should proceed in this way globally
  • Repeats she does not expect that vaccine will be broadly available until the middle of 2021

11:51
European session review: USD and JPY depreciate, riskier currencies rise as investor sentiment improves further after solid data out of China and Europe

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomAverage earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/yJuly-0.2%-0.2%0.2%
06:00United KingdomAverage Earnings, 3m/y July-1.2%-1.3%-1%
06:00United KingdomILO Unemployment RateJuly3.9%4.1%4.1%
06:00United KingdomClaimant count August94.410073.7
06:30SwitzerlandProducer & Import Prices, y/yAugust-3.3% -3.5%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yAugust0.8%0.2%0.2%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mAugust0.4%-0.1%-0.1%
08:00FranceIEA Oil Market Report    
09:00EurozoneZEW Economic SentimentSeptember64.0 73.9
09:00GermanyZEW Survey - Economic SentimentSeptember71.569.877.4

Safe-haven USD and JPY fell against their major rivals in the European session on Tuesday as upbeat economic data out of China and Europe boosted demand for riskier assets. 

USD traded lower against JPY.  EUR traded mixed with declines versus GBP, AUD, NZD, CNY, and gains versus USD, JPY. 

The National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) reported China’s industrial production rose 5.6 percent in August from 4.8 percent in July compared to economists' estimate of +5.1 percent, while its retail sales increased +0.5 percent in contrast to a 1.1 percent decline in July and compared to economists' forecast of +0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, Germany's latest ZEW survey showed that economic confidence strengthened unexpectedly in September. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose by 5.9 points from the previous month to 77.4 in September, the highest since May 2000, signaling expectations of a noticeable recovery of Europe's largest economy. That was well above economists’ forecast of 69.8. Meanwhile, the current conditions index increased to -66.2 from -81.3 in August. Economists had expected the reading to come in at  -72.0.

Investors’ focus is shifting to the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE), the outcomes of which will be released later this week.

11:20
S&P 500 to continue the correction amid fiscal deal stalemate - Morgan Stanley

FXStreet notes that over the past few weeks, US equity markets have experienced the first meaningful correction since this new bull market began in March. The S&P 500 is down about 7% from its recent all-time high, while the NASDAQ 100 is down about 11%. Gridlock on the next US stimulus package – combined with election year uncertainty – suggests there could be more downside in September and October, according to Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley.

“We think this correction is just that, a correction in a new bull market. It's normal for markets to pullback after such an incredible run like we've experienced since March. Furthermore, when a new bull market coincides with a new economic cycle, the bull market usually runs for years, not months.”

“On the correction, there's still downside as markets digest the risk of congressional gridlock on the next fiscal deal. While we think something will ultimately get done, it will likely take another few weeks to get it over the goal line, which should keep markets nervous in the short term. Importantly, once the deal passes, the risk will shift to higher long-term interest rates, which have been a major support to the rally so far, and the preference for large cap growth stocks.” 

“It's an election year and historically, US equity markets have traded poorly in the months of September and October. Specifically, these months have been down about twice as often as they've been up, and the moves have been significant in many cases. With this year's election looking close, we expect uncertainty to remain high.”

10:50
China:domestic demand on the rise - ING

Iris Pang, ING's Chief Economist, Greater China, suggests that domestic demand is driving China's economic growth but external circulation may remain a challenge to growth.

"Since the introduction of cross-provincial travel within China, we have seen retail sales recovering strongly to 0.5%YoY growth in August from -1.1%YoY a month ago. Spending on cosmetics and jewellery rose 19.0%YoY and 15.3%YoY, respectively in August. The tourism business has also brought back jobs in the service sector. The spending power of the population has improved. The favourite spending item, telecommunication products, experienced a jump in sales of 25.1%YoY."

"China’s new-infra plan and traditional infrastructure projects in transportation have led overall investment spending. Fixed asset investment (FAI) shrank only -0.3%YoY YTD in August from -1.6%YoY YTD in July. The "computer, telecommunication" category, which represents new-infra investment plans, grew 11.7%YoY YTD, which results in part from China’s push towards self-reliance in technology. Rail transportation investment also grew 6.4%YoY YTD."

"Industrial production growth also picked up to 5.6%YoY in August from 4.8%YoY in July. This was brought about by improvements in production across a broader range of categories than in previous months."

"We can see that domestic demand has brought back growth, mainly in retail sales and infrastructure projects, which have in turn led to growth in industrial production. This growth has brought some jobs back to the market. This is indeed the internal growth circulation that China is promoting."

"But the dual circulation, that is, both domestic and external growth, is yet to be seen as Covid-19 cases seem to be rebounding in some places outside China, and there is more political tension too, weighing on external demand." 

"Our forecasts for China's GDP is currently at 0.7%YoY for the whole of 2020, which we are not changing now. We will probably not do so unless there are big improvements or deteriorations in external circulation that would change economic growth materially."

10:29
USD/JPY to consolidate in the 106 area on a three-month view - Rabobank

FXStreet notes that the announcement of Suga as Japan’s new PM is not worrying investors but there are a number of other factors that could persuade investors to dive back into the safe-haven JPY in the coming months. All in all, economists at Rabobank forecast the USD/JPY pair at 106 on a three-month horizon.

"Given that a change in PM hasn’t rocked markets it is unlikely that the JPY will take much lead from this week’s BoJ policy meeting.”

“On the view that the changes in Japanese domestic politics are unlikely to become a prime focus for the JPY, we expect USD/JPY to hold close to the 106 area on a three-month view.”

10:13
WHO states that pause in AstraZeneca's (AZN) COVID-19 vaccine trial show it is "well-run" trial

  • Shows that they have looked at safety in "appropriate manner"

09:58
GBP/USD to surge to 1.40 by September-2021 – UBS

FXStreet reports that economists at UBS advise to hold their nerve on UK assets despite the heightened concerns over the final stages of the Brexit process.

“We are positive on the medium-term outlook for sterling, both against the US dollar and against the euro. By September of next year we expect sterling to rise to USD 1.40, against 1.29 at present.”

“We also like the UK equity market. A positive outcome to talks would also remove a major impediment to the UK equity market, which has lagged global stocks. We expect earnings growth to fall substantially this year, but by next year we anticipate a robust rebound driven by an economic bounce-back and a recovery in the oil price. The UK market has a high exposure to cyclical value sectors such as energy and basic materials, which could benefit from a global recovery.”

09:39
Oil could see another demand shock - analysts

CNBC reports that the next big shock to the oil industry could be yet another hit to demand, analysts said.

That would add to the destruction already seen this year as measures taken to combat the pandemic prevented people from commuting and traveling – drastically reducing oil usage.

“A lot of us, we’re talking about another demand shock. It’s like fighting the last battle,” said Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citi.

He warned that oil producing countries could experience a big setback.

Earlier this year, the May contract for U.S. benchmark dived deep into negative territory for the first time in its history.

“I think it is still all about the demand, the demand destruction this year has been extraordinary,” Martin Fraenkel, president of S&P Global Platts, which projected that the contraction in global oil demand will be 8 million barrels a day by the end of this year.

“By the end of 2021, oil demand will still be below where the world was in 2019,” Fraenkel added

OPEC+ has a “delicate maneuvering act” if demand does not bounce back, Fraenkel added,  referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

In July, OPEC+ put in place historic supply curbs of 10 million barrels a day, but agreed to ease them to 7.7 million barrels a day from August.

09:19
German business sentiment index rose more than expected in September - ZEW

According to the report from ZEW, the Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased again in the current September 2020 survey, climbing 5.9 points to a new reading of 77.4 points compared to the previous month. Economists had expected a decrease to 69.8. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany also improved, and currently stands at minus 66.2 points, 15.1 points higher than in August. With the increase of both the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the assessment of the economic situation, the overall outlook has improved significantly compared to the previous month.

“The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment has increased again, signalling that the experts continue to expect a noticeable recovery of the German economy. Stalled Brexit talks and rising COVID-19 cases could not dampen the positive mood. However, the still negative outlook for the banking sector reveals fears of a rising number of loan defaults in the coming six months,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone increased by 9.9 points, bringing the indicator to a current level of 73.9 points for September. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone climbed 8.9 points to a level of minus 80.9 points. The outlook for the eurozone has thus also improved noticeably, albeit to a lesser extent than for Germany.

09:02
Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, September 73.9
09:01
Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, September 77.4 (forecast 69.8)
08:39
Oil demand recovery set to slow for rest of 2020 - IEA

Reuters reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its 2020 oil demand forecast, citing caution about the pace of economic recovery from the pandemic.

IEA cut its 2020 outlook by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 91.7 million bpd in its second downgrade in as many months.

"We expect the recovery in oil demand to decelerate markedly in the second half of 2020, with most of the easy gains already achieved," the IEA said in its monthly report.

Renewed rises in COVID-19 cases in many countries and related lockdown measures, continued remote working and a still weak aviation sector are all hurting demand, the IEA said.

Increasing oil output and the downgraded demand outlook also mean a slower draw on crude oil stocks which piled up at the height of lockdown measures, it added.

08:20
USD/CAD: Risk premium too low, seasonals bullish - BofA

eFXdata reports that Bank of America Global Research discusses its recent long USD/CAD.

"With the September Bank of Canada meeting behind us, we favor positioning long for a tradable rally into September. More broadly, we see this occurring in the context of potentially higher market volatility, softer oil and a rising USD...CAD has recovered from March weakness on the back of surging global risk appetite and higher oil, which softened Canada’s terms-of-trade shock". 

"USD/CAD calendar seasonals are bullish. Over the last 10 years, USD/CAD has been higher 9 out of 10 times over the next 60 trading days. This is also consistent with broader bullish USD seasonals".

07:59
GDP of ‘developing Asia’ set to contract for the first time in nearly six decades - ADB

CNBC reports that Asian Development Bank said that developing Asia, which includes countries like China, India, Indonesia and Singapore, will contract this year for the first time in about six decades as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hammer economies worldwide.

In its updated outlook report, ADB said GDP in developing Asia will contract 0.7% this year. The bank also said three-fourths of the region’s economies are set to shrink in 2020, downgrading its GDP forecasts for those countries. 

The pandemic slowed domestic consumption, affected external demand and hit exports, Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB’s chief economist, said.

“On top of this, travel bans really undermine free flow of people as well as goods and services trade,” he said. 

Growth will likely rebound in 2021 with developing Asia expected to register a 6.8% expansion. India is set to grow 8% for the next calendar year, according to the report.

Bank in its report warned that a prolonged wave of Covid-19 infections could stifle recovery and further disrupt demand and supply while worsening geopolitical tensions, notably among U.S. and China, remain a risk. 

Protracted weakness could trigger crises in some economies, the ADB said.

07:41
USD/CNH remains week and risks a drop to 6.7660 – UOB

FXStreet reports that USD/CNH keeps the negative outlook unaltered and could drop to the 6.7660 level in the next weeks.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (14 Sep, spot at 6.8300), we highlighted that ‘as long as 6.8550 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 6.8800) is intact, there is still a slim chance that USD could push lower towards the support at 6.8000’. However, the speed of the subsequent decline was not exactly expected as USD plummeted to 6.8057 before cracking 6.8000 just a while ago. The sudden surge in momentum indicates that the negative phase that started in mid-August has received a new lease of life. From here, the next level to focus on is at 6.7660 followed closely by 6.7500. Overall, the current negative phase is deemed as intact as long as 6.8300 is not taken out (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.8550 yesterday).”

07:20
Asian session review: the US dollar declined against major currencies

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaHouse Price Index (QoQ)Quarter II1.6%-1%-1.8%
01:30AustraliaRBA Meeting's Minutes    
02:00ChinaRetail Sales y/yAugust-1.1%0%0.5%
02:00ChinaIndustrial Production y/yAugust4.8%5.1%5.6%
02:00ChinaFixed Asset InvestmentAugust-1.6%-0.4%-0.3%
06:00United KingdomAverage earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/yJuly-0.2%-0.2%0.2%
06:00United KingdomAverage Earnings, 3m/y July-1.2%-1.3%-1%
06:00United KingdomILO Unemployment RateJuly3.9%4.1%4.1%
06:00United KingdomClaimant count August94.410073.7
06:30SwitzerlandProducer & Import Prices, y/yAugust-3.3% -3.5%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yAugust0.8%0.2%0.2%
06:45FranceCPI, m/mAugust0.4%-0.1%-0.1%


During today's Asian session, the US dollar declined against the euro, yen and other world currencies in anticipation of the Federal reserve meeting.

The Federal reserve is holding its first meeting on September 15-16 since approving the new long-term strategy at the end of August. Experts believe that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" mood at the upcoming meeting, as the US economy, recovering from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, still needs support.

Economists expect that the new strategy of the Federal reserve, which provides for a more lenient approach to monetary policy, will be reflected in concrete measures to support the economy, given that the prospects for approval by the US authorities of the next portion of budget incentives are becoming more doubtful.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 0.15%.

Growing hopes for the imminent appearance of a COVID-19 vaccine reduce the attractiveness of the dollar as a "safe haven" asset, experts say. Despite the sharp decline in economic activity in the world due to quarantine measures, the appearance of the vaccine will give a boost to the growth of the global economy.

07:00
France's consumer price index fell 0.1% in August, as expected

According to the report from INSEE, in August 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged down by 0.1% over a month, after +0.4% in July 2020. Manufactured product prices dropped sharply (−1.2%, after a stability in July). Those of energy (+0.3% after +1.0%) and services (+0.3% after +0.9%) slowed down and those of tobacco were stable after a 0.1% increase in July. Finally, food prices rebounded slightly (+0.2% after a 0.9% drop in the previous month).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices fell back by 0.5%, after +0.7% in the previous month.

Year on year, consumer prices slowed down to 0.2%, after +0.8% in the previous month. This drop in inflation resulted from a downturn in manufactured products, linked to the postponed summer sales, and a slowdown in food prices. Contrariwise, energy prices fell less year on year than in July. Finally, the prices of services and tobacco rose, year on year, as the same rate as in the previous month.

Year on year, core inflation dropped, in August, to +0.5% after +1.4% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) edged down by 0.1% over a month, after +0.4% in the previous month; year on year, it slowed down to +0.2%, after +0.9% in July.

06:46
France: CPI, m/m, August -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)
06:46
France: CPI, y/y, August 0.2% (forecast 0.2%)
06:41
Swiss producer and import price index fell in August

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, the Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2020 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.9 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with August 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.5%.

In particular, lower prices for pharmaceutical preparations were responsible for the decrease in the producer price index compared with the previous month. Basic chemicals and petroleum products also became cheaper. In contrast, rising prices were observed for paints, varnishes and similar coatings, printing ink and mastics as well as for raw milk.

The import price index registered lower prices compared with July 2020, particularly for organic products of the chemical industry. Plastics in primary forms, petroleum and natural gas, petroleum products and other chemical products also showed falling prices. Non-ferrous metals and products made therefrom, basic iron, steel, plastic products and computers, on the other hand, became more expensive.

06:31
Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, y/y, August -3.5%
06:15
UK unemployment rate rises in line with forecasts - ONS

According to the report from Office for National Statistics (ONS), early indicators for August 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls was down around 695,000 compared with March 2020.

Figures for May to July 2020 show an increase in the unemployment rate; despite this increase and an increase in the number of redundancies, the employment rate was up and the economic inactivity rate has fallen. The estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 4.1%; this is 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Looking in more detail at unemployment by age, the estimated number of people unemployed aged 16 to 24 years increased by 76,000 on the year to 563,000. Other age groups saw falls or very little change over the year.

The number of people who are estimated to be temporarily away from work (including furloughed workers) has fallen, but it was still more than 5 million in July 2020, with over 2.5 million of these being away for three months or more. There were also around 250,000 people away from work because of the pandemic and receiving no pay in July 2020.

Vacancies continued to show increases in the latest period, driven by the smaller businesses, some of which are reporting taking on additional staff to meet coronavirus (COVID-19) guidelines.

The Claimant Count reached 2.7 million in August 2020, an increase of 120.8% since March 2020.

The rate of decline in employee pay growth slowed in July following strong falls in the previous three months. For the sectors of wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants and construction, where the highest percentage of employees returned to work from furlough, there was a slight improvement in pay growth for July 2020. In May to July 2020, the rate of annual pay growth stood at negative 1.0% for total pay but positive 0.2% for regular pay. The difference between the two measures is because of subdued bonuses, which fell by an average negative 21.4% (in nominal terms) in the three months from May to July 2020.

06:02
Options levels on tuesday, September 15, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2014 (918)

$1.1984 (3803)

$1.1959 (2423)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1896

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1825 (472)

$1.1805 (900)

$1.1780 (1240)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 62510 contracts (according to data from September, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4422);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3094 (258)

$1.3065 (650)

$1.3039 (186)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2862

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2786 (623)

$1.2768 (710)

$1.2747 (850)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 13582 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (1189);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 15338 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (2619);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 14

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:01
United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, July 0.2% (forecast -0.2%)
06:01
United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , July -1% (forecast -1.3%)
06:01
United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, July 4.1% (forecast 4.1%)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Monday, September 14, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 39.32 -0.71
Silver 27.1 1.57
Gold 1956.287 0.86
Palladium 2309.92 0.09
02:01
China: Fixed Asset Investment, August -0.3% (forecast -0.4%)
02:01
China: Retail Sales, August 0.5% (forecast 0%), y/y
02:01
China: Industrial Production, August 5.6% (forecast 5.1%), y/y
01:31
Australia: House Price Index, Quarter II -1.8% (forecast -1%), (QoQ)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, September 14, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 152.81 23559.3 0.65
Hang Seng 136.97 24640.28 0.56
KOSPI 31.22 2427.91 1.3
ASX 200 40.1 5899.5 0.68
FTSE 100 -5.84 6026.25 -0.1
DAX -9.18 13193.66 -0.07
CAC 40 17.74 5051.88 0.35
Dow Jones 327.69 27993.33 1.18
S&P 500 42.57 3383.54 1.27
NASDAQ Composite 203.1 11056.65 1.87
00:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II 1.6% -1%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes    
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y August -1.1% 0.1%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y August 4.8% 5.1%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment August -1.6% -0.4%
06:00 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y July -0.2% -0.2%
06:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y July -1.2% -1.3%
06:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate July 3.9% 4.1%
06:00 United Kingdom Claimant count August 94.4  
06:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y August -3.3%  
06:45 France CPI, y/y August 0.8% 0.2%
06:45 France CPI, m/m August 0.4% -0.1%
08:00 France IEA Oil Market Report    
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment September 64.0  
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment September 71.5 69.8
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) July 20.7% 8.7%
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index September 3.7 5.95
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index August 0.7% 0.5%
13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization August 70.6% 71.5%
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) August 3% 1%
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY August -8.2%  
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter II 1.56 0.595
23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln August 11.6 -37.5
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, September 14, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72893 0.12
EURJPY 125.414 -0.21
EURUSD 1.18647 0.19
GBPJPY 135.774 -0.02
GBPUSD 1.2846 0.4
NZDUSD 0.66991 0.53
USDCAD 1.31739 -0.06
USDCHF 0.90781 -0.11
USDJPY 105.69 -0.41

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