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14.09.2020
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter II 1.6% -1%
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes    
02:00 China Retail Sales y/y August -1.1% 0.1%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y August 4.8% 5.1%
02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment August -1.6% -0.4%
06:00 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y July -0.2% -0.2%
06:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y July -1.2% -1.3%
06:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate July 3.9% 4.1%
06:00 United Kingdom Claimant count August 94.4  
06:30 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y August -3.3%  
06:45 France CPI, y/y August 0.8% 0.2%
06:45 France CPI, m/m August 0.4% -0.1%
08:00 France IEA Oil Market Report    
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment September 64.0  
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment September 71.5 69.8
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) July 20.7% 8.7%
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index September 3.7 5.95
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index August 0.7% 0.5%
13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization August 70.6% 71.5%
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) August 3% 1%
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY August -8.2%  
22:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter II 1.56 0.595
23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln August 11.6 -37.5
19:01
DJIA +1.24% 28,009.24 +343.60 Nasdaq +1.79% 11,047.86 +194.32 S&P +1.37% 3,386.77 +45.80
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,026.25 -5.84 -0.10% DAX 13,193.66 -9.18 -0.07% CAC 40 5,051.88 +17.74 +0.35%
15:03
Germany's Chancellor Merkel: We need to have fair competition with China

  • China's carbon trading system would offer good opportunities for cooperation with the EU 
  • We will urge China to bring its peak carbon emission forward from the current target of 2030

14:36
BOE: Expect renewed caution as chances of November stimulus grow - ING

ING's DM economist James Smith and senior rates strategist Antoine Bouvet note that with November action from the Bank of England (BOE) looking ever-more-likely, they'll be watching closely to see if policymakers offer up any further clues on which tools they're most likely to use. The message of recent weeks suggests QE remains the preferred tool, although negative rates can't be ruled out either over the coming months.

"While it’s unlikely the Bank will rock the boat too much this week, there are two interesting questions."

"Firstly, will policymakers acknowledge that the downside risks to their August forecasts are growing? Certainly, some MPC members have been sounding more cautious in recent weeks."

"And if so, secondly, will the Bank offer any clues as to how it might increase the level of stimulus in November? Despite the recent hype surrounding negative rates, Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that he believes quantitive easing (QE) is a more useful marginal policy tool, and this is likely to be at the centre of the stimulus package we expect in the autumn."

"On interest rates, there was a lot of discussion about the pros and cons of negative rates in the last monetary policy report, but the Bank is clearly still on the fence about how useful they might prove to be. In the first instance, we suspect policymakers will look to lower the interest rate on the Term-Funding Scheme, which incentivises lending to SMEs. However full-blown negative rates are also a clear possibility over coming months, particularly if the economic outlook were to worsen materially."

"The near-term outlook for gilt yields is more likely to be driven by any Brexit-related flight to quality flow than central bank action. This is because with about one and a half month before the all-important November meeting, odds of leaving the EU without a trade deal in place have time to swing about quite significantly. Nevertheless, Thursday’s meeting will be key in shaping expectations of further easing in November, and what form it would take."

"We think the market consensus is quickly converging towards answering the first question, whether to add easing in November, in the affirmative. This is not to say a dovish rates reaction to the BOE is impossible, but the bar is high, and it will largely depend on the MPC’s easing preference."

"Inputting two different scenarios to our long-term monetary gilt model highlights that the highest probability-scenario is also the least impactful."

"In light of recent MPC communication, markets have shifted back to QE being the most likely easing tool in the near future. This explains in part why an additional £100bn of QE would only shift 10-year gilt  ‘monetary FV’ lower by 20p by the end of 2021. More importantly, perhaps, this outcome on its own would not amount to a change in dynamic for GBP rates, with the floor holding firm around 0%."

14:03
ECB's chief economist Lane: Baseline assumes localized lockdowns over the coming year

  • There is no indication that we are hitting lower bound with rates

13:36
USD/CAD to rise as Canadian economic and political outlook becomes cloudier - HSBC

FXStreet notes that the CAD has recovered all of the ground lost to the USD during the early phases of the COVID-19 lockdown but economists at HSBC believe the drop in USD/CAD has more to do with USD disdain than CAD enthusiasm. The Canadian dollar remains vulnerable to a still challenging economic outlook and the political outlook in Canada also seems uncertain. The economists retain a bearish bias toward the CAD.

“The difficulty for the CAD is where things go from the post-lockdown bounce in activity. The government support programmes are set to be tapered and then end. Canada has less room to manoeuvre on the fiscal front than some others in the G10, before that cyclical or structural trade-off becomes more of an issue for FX.”

“Political uncertainty could also rise in Canada. Parliament will return when the current proroguing ends on 23 September, and the government announces its new long-term economic plan.”

“All in all, our bearish view on the CAD appears not to have been shared by the market, but we remain cautious on the CAD and still look for USD/CAD to rise, albeit at a gradual pace.”

13:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.67%, Nasdaq +1.46%, S&P +1.03%
13:18
USD: FOMC meeting ahead, but not many fireworks expected - ING

Strategists at ING suggests that the key event of the week is the FOMC meeting (Wednesday). 

"While the central bank may seek to operationalise its new average inflation targeting approach with some additional forward guidance, the soft Fed policy looks largely priced in following Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, meaning that more positive news is needed to push cyclical currencies higher and the dollar lower."

"With fragile equity markets and risk sentiment, it is unlikely to happen this week, in our view."

13:17
Before the bell: S&P futures +1.14%, NASDAQ futures +1.37%

U.S. stock-index futures surged on Monday, as investor sentiment was underpinned by news about a series of multi-billion M&A-deals and COVID-19 vaccine hopes.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

23,559.30

+152.81

+0.65%

Hang Seng

24,640.28

+136.97

+0.56%

Shanghai

3,278.81

+18.47

+0.57%

S&P/ASX

5,899.50

+40.10

+0.68%

FTSE

6,047.43

+15.34

+0.25%

CAC

5,059.54

+25.40

+0.50%

DAX

13,213.11

+10.27

+0.08%

Crude oil

$36.95


-1.02%

Gold

$1,963.20


+0.77%

12:58
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

168

1.83(1.10%)

419

ALCOA INC.

AA

14.1

0.12(0.86%)

8418

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

42.95

0.22(0.51%)

20810

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,164.21

47.99(1.54%)

62015

American Express Co

AXP

104.1

0.74(0.72%)

2359

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

28.58

0.18(0.63%)

1310

Apple Inc.

AAPL

113.95

1.95(1.74%)

2129307

AT&T Inc

T

29.12

0.12(0.41%)

105410

Boeing Co

BA

162.03

1.80(1.12%)

66864

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

154.65

0.82(0.53%)

2578

Chevron Corp

CVX

78.06

0.37(0.48%)

15176

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

40.2

0.32(0.80%)

48613

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

51.39

0.39(0.76%)

26201

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

216.18

0.22(0.10%)

616

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

59.5

0.93(1.58%)

723

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

37.08

0.18(0.49%)

54243

Facebook, Inc.

FB

270.5

3.89(1.46%)

98341

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

241.2

8.41(3.61%)

101482

Ford Motor Co.

F

7.01

0.01(0.14%)

137678

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

16.5

0.23(1.41%)

41606

General Electric Co

GE

5.99

0.04(0.67%)

579415

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

30.8

0.34(1.12%)

71040

Goldman Sachs

GS

202.99

2.07(1.03%)

4719

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,541.77

21.05(1.38%)

5335

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

19.47

0.18(0.93%)

274

Home Depot Inc

HD

278.47

2.14(0.77%)

3229

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

168.3

1.85(1.11%)

802

Intel Corp

INTC

49.2

-0.08(-0.16%)

242068

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

122.5

1.04(0.86%)

4215

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

149.01

1.23(0.83%)

4416

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

101.71

0.64(0.63%)

21438

McDonald's Corp

MCD

219.16

1.16(0.53%)

4933

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

84.37

0.50(0.60%)

15063

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

203.64

-0.39(-0.19%)

424875

Nike

NKE

118.95

0.95(0.81%)

6993

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.85

0.78(2.16%)

274811

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

138.36

0.22(0.16%)

1783

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

85.9

0.63(0.74%)

3567

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

381

8.28(2.22%)

886464

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

50.98

0.33(0.65%)

20406

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

114.54

1.14(1.01%)

283

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

39.36

0.43(1.10%)

27017

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

60.6

0.81(1.35%)

29939

Visa

V

202.25

1.57(0.78%)

13102

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

136.46

-0.24(-0.18%)

109395

Walt Disney Co

DIS

132.47

0.72(0.55%)

11296

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

62.19

0.37(0.60%)

27031

12:57
S&P 500 Index: Scope for a near-term bounce before deeper corrective setback - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that the S&P 500 extends its corrective setback and whilst economists at Credit Suisse see scope for a near-term bounce on Monday, the “ideal” scenario remains to look for a deeper corrective setback to test support at 3280/60. 

“The S&P 500 extends its corrective setback and although we see scope for a near-term bounce this morning, with a bearish ‘outside day’ in place from last week and with the market still below its 13-day exponential average, currently seen at 3410, the risk for a deeper setback remains. Key to the broader picture as to the severity of a setback remains seen from rates markets though and whether we see a more decisive move lower in 10yr US Breakevens and a base in 10yr US Real Yields, neither of which we have yet to seen, although the risk of which very much remains.” 

“Above 3369 would suggest there is scope for a move back to 3395, potentially 3410, but we look for this latter level to then ideally cap for a move back to 3307/03 ahead of our ‘ideal’ objective and what we look to be better support at 3280/59 where we will look for a floor – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from mid-May, 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from March, July high and 63-day average.” 

12:47
UK PM Johnson’s spokesman: PM to open parliament debate on Brexit plan on Monday

  • Internal Market Bill provides vital legal safety net to ensure integrity of UK can be protected; critical we get it passed before year-end
  • PM has been engaging with conservative lawmakers, spoke to them on Friday night to set out why the internal market bill is vital legislation

12:34
ECB's Governing Council member Makhlouf believes that demand factors will continue to dominate and lead to fall in prices
12:24
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he is open to speak with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi anytime regarding stimulus - CNBC

  • Notes there are areas of agreement and disagreement on stimulus
  • Says he is not going to speculate if stimulus will be passed
  • Says he will be working on continuing resolution to make sure government does not shutdown
  • Confirms that U.S got a proposal for TikTok for Oracle 

12:10
Moody’s affirms China's A1 rating with stable outlook

"The A1 rating affirmation and stable outlook are supported by Moody's assessment that the strength of China's institutions and governance, and in particular the effectiveness of government policies, support the sovereign's capacity to mitigate the credit risks that result from ongoing increases in public sector debt, pockets of financial stress likely to become apparent from time to time, and slowing growth potential albeit from high rates," Moody’s stated in its press-release.

12:06
OPEC expects 2020 world oil demand to drop by 9.46 mbpd compared to its previous forecast of 9.06 mbpd decline

  • Expects 2021 oil demand to rise by 6.62 mbpd  compared to its previous forecast of 7.0 mbpd rise
  • Says coronavirus impact remains challenging and requires coordinated policy action from all market participants, including OPEC+
  • Lowers forecast for global demand for its crude by 700K bpd in 2020 and 1.1mln bpd in 2021, due to higher non-OPEC supply view and lower global demand
  • Says oil production rose by 760,000 to 24.05 mbpd in August as OPEC+ eased supply cut

11:44
BoE: Impact from policy decision to be limited and short-lived, sterling more sensitive to other factors - TDS

FXStreet notes that this month's Bank of England (BoE) decision isn't expected to be any kind of turning point, with no new forecasts at this meeting and no need to address the QE program as it still has room to run. Economists at TD Securities would not be surprised to see investors fade some of GBP's recent declines as the meeting itself approaches. However, with a multitude of other drivers in play, they do not think the September MPC meeting is likely to provide a strong directional push.  

“We look for the BoE to keep its policy stance unchanged, but for the minutes to show more concern about the downside risks to the growth outlook. The MPC view appears to have taken a more dovish turn since August.”

“With the risk backdrop still highly fragile, we think sterling will remain a favourite of those looking for a vehicle to express negative sentiment for some time yet. Here, we think 1.2665 should be the next major reassessment level on a move lower.”

“The very near-term outlook still argues for some patience. As we begin to approach MPC meeting, however, we think the market may begin to fade some of sterling's recent weakness. With Brexit negotiations now on hold until 28 September, the next real event risk of major consequence is a special meeting of EU leaders (24/25 September).”

11:31
European session review: USD weakens as coronavirus vaccine hopes and M&A news boost risk appetite

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
09:00EurozoneIndustrial Production (YoY)July-12%-8.2%-7.7%
09:00EurozoneIndustrial production, (MoM)July9.5%4%4.1%


USD fell against most other major currencies in the European session on Monday as risk sentiment was lifted by news about a series of multi-billion M&A-deals in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors and the resumption of AstraZeneca/Oxford University's coronavirus vaccine trial.

Oxford University announced on Saturday that it is resuming testing of a Covid-19 vaccine it is developing with AstraZeneca (ANZ). The late-stage trial was paused last week following the unexplained illness of one of its participants in the UK. 

In addition, Pfizer's (PFE) CEO Albert Bourla stated that the company should know by the end of October whether its coronavirus vaccine candidate will work. If Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine gets approved, it could be distributed in the U.S. by the end of 2020, he added. 

Improving risk sentiment was further reinforced by the announcements that Nvidia (NVDA) agreed to acquire chip designer Arm Holdings for $40 billion, while Gilead Sciences (GILD) reached an agreement to purchase biotech company Immunomedics (IMMU) for $21 billion. In addition, the NY Times reported that Oracle (ORCL) emerges as the preferred buyer for TikTok's U.S. business.

Market participants are looking for an interest rates decision from the Federal Reserve and a press conference from its Chairman Jerome Powell later this week. It is expected that the Fed will keep its rates and QE unchanged at the September meeting.

11:00
ECB: Further stimulus not ruled out yet - UOB

economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group assessed the latest ECB event.

“The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were left unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively.”

“The ECB will continue its purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of EUR1.350tn.”

“Going forward, how the COVID-19 pandemic evolves will remain important to the economic recovery. The upward trend in new cases is worrying, where numbers have climbed in Spain and France since mid-August. For now, none of the negative developments since June may have been sufficient for the ECB to announce additional monetary stimulus. But the prospect of further loosening of monetary conditions before year-end remains high, and the ECB will be erring heavily on the side of caution, especially if the inflation picture remains weak.”

10:38
Eurozone industrial production continues its recovery - ING

Bert Colijn, a Senior Eurozone Economist at ING, notes that Eurozone's production rose by 4.1% in July as the start of the third quarter is still boosted by the positive effects on industries reopening after lockdowns, but downside risks to the industrial outlook remain.

"The increase in July was not as fast as it was in June, but still eurozone industry continues to see meaningful increases on a monthly basis to get closer to pre-corona levels of output. The recovery was still very broad-based, with all product categories experiencing a solid increase."

"Almost all eurozone countries saw production growth in July, with especially strong rebound effects seen in Spain and Italy at 9.4 and 7.4%."

"While the service sector is starting to see more signs of rebound fatigue, August survey data on the manufacturing sector suggests that industrial production continued to regain significant ground. This is not a luxury though; production is currently still roughly 7% below pre-crisis levels. While domestic demand strength at the start of the lockdown recovery has been promising, worries about the export environment and increasing unemployment mean that the outlook for industrial recovery continues to be rather uncertain for the months ahead."

10:17
Bank of France revises 2020 GDP forecasts to -8.7% from -10.3% previously estimated

  • Revises 2021 GDP forecast to +7.4% from +6.9% previously projected
  • Revises 2022 GDP forecast to +3.0% from +3.9% previously projected
  • Estimates economic activity running at 5% below normal levels
  • Sees Q3 GDP rising 16% q-o-q after contracting 13.8% q-o-q in Q2
  • Forecasts economy to shed 825,000 jobs this year; unemployment rate to peak at 11.1% in 2021

09:59
German economic recovery to continue in H2, Q3 to show strong growth - ministry

Reuters reports that Europe's largest economy is set to continue recovering from the coronavirus crisis in the remainder of 2020 and will likely grow strongly in the third quarter but it probably will not reach its pre-crisis level until 2022, the German Economy Ministry said.

The trough of the recession was reached in the second quarter and the easing of lockdown measures since May led to a rapid recovery in industry and in some service sectors, the ministry said in its monthly report.

"The German economy is continuing to pick up, albeit at a more moderate pace," the ministry said.

The ministry said significant economic growth was likely in the third quarter thanks to impetus from May and June, when there were signs of a rebound.

It said exports remained far from their pre-coronavirus levels and while industrial production had returned to almost 90% of its pre-coronavirus level and was continuing to rise, it had lost some momentum.

09:39
EUR/USD to confirm a resumption of the uptrend above 1.1930 – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that EUR/USD remains sidelined near-term and needs to clear 1.1930 to ease the threat of a top. Key support remains seen at 1.1754/53, analysts at Credit Suisse inform.

“Whilst the threat of a top remains a real risk the immediate risk stays seen mildly higher within the broader range whilst above 1.1799/944. Above 1.1875 is needed to clear the way for a move back to 1.1913/30, above which should see a move back to 1.2011 and eventually our 1.2145/55 first major upside objective – the ‘neckline’ to the early 2018 top and the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018/2020 fall. We would look for a cap here for a fresh phase of consolidation.”

09:19
Eurozone industrial production rose more than expected in July

According to the report from Eurostat, in July 2020, a month marked by some relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in many Member States, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 4.1% in both the euro area and EU, compared with June 2020. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase in the euro area. In June 2020, industrial production rose by 9.5% in the euro area and by 9.6% in the EU. 

In July 2020 compared with July 2019, industrial production decreased by 7.7% in the euro area and by 7.3% in the EU. Economists had expected a 8.2% decrease in the euro area. 

In the euro area in July 2020, compared with June 2020, production of capital goods rose by 5.3%, durable consumer goods by 4.7%, intermediate goods by 4.2%, non-durable consumer goods by 3.9% and energy by 1.1%. In the EU, production of capital goods rose by 5.6%, durable consumer goods by 4.8%, intermediate goods by 3.9%, non-durable consumer goods by 2.8% and energy by 1.3%.

In the euro area in July 2020, compared with July 2019, production of capital goods fell by 10.4%, intermediate goods by 9.3%, energy by 6.2%, durable consumer goods by 3.8% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.9%. In the EU, production of capital goods fell by 10.2%, intermediate goods by 8.7%, energy by 6.6%, non-durable consumer goods by 2.5% and durable consumer goods by 2.0%.

09:01
Eurozone: Industrial Production, July -7.7% y/y (forecast -8.2%)
09:01
Eurozone: Industrial production, July 4.1% m/m (forecast 4%)
08:39
USD/CNH: A move to 6.80 is not ruled out yet – UOB

FXStreet reports that there is still scope for USD/CNH to slip back to the 6.80 area in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest narrative from last Wednesday (09 Sep, spot at 6.8510), we indicated that ‘the odds for further USD weakness have diminished considerably’. We added, ‘unless USD moves and stays below 6.8350 within these 1 to 2 days, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 6.8800 would not be surprising and would indicate that the negative phase in USD that started in mid-August has run its course’. USD subsequently traded in a quiet manner and downward momentum continues to deteriorate. That said, as long as 6.8550 (‘strong resistance’ previously at 6.8800) is intact, there is still a slim chance that USD could push lower towards the support at 6.8000.”

08:21
BP says the era of oil-demand growth Is over

Bloomberg reports that BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.

Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in.

BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will see decades of growth.

The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business with the goals of the Paris climate accord. 

That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual” situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years.

07:59
Former British prime minister Cameron says he has misgivings about Brexit move

Reuters reports that former British prime minister David Cameron expressed concern at Boris Johnson's plan to break international law by overriding parts of the Brexit divorce treaty with the European Union.

"Passing an act of parliament and then going on to break an international treaty obligation is the very, very last thing you should contemplate. It should be an absolute final resort," Cameron told.

Former prime ministers Tony Blair and John Major said on Sunday that Britain must drop its "shocking" plan.

However, Cameron did not go that far, saying a proposed bill that lawmakers will vote on later on Monday - and which the government has said would breach international law - had to be seen in the context of tough trade talks with the EU.

07:39
AUD/USD now seen within 0.7200-0.7350 range – UOB

FXStreet reports that AUD/USD is forecasted to keep the consolidative mood likely between 0.7200 and 0.7350 in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Wednesday (09 Sep, spot at 0.7215) that AUD ‘is under mild downward pressure and is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 0.7150’. We added, ‘the current mild downward pressure is deemed as intact unless AUD moves back above 0.7295 within these few days’. AUD rose to a high of 0.7325 yesterday (10 Sep) and despite closing on a soft note at 0.7257 (-0.36%), downward momentum has more or less dissipated. To look at it another way, the current movement in AUD is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and it could trade between 0.7200 and 0.7350 for a period of time.”

07:20
Goldman Sachs says pound levels now attractive

Reuters reports that investment bank Goldman Sachs said that odds of a damaging no-deal Brexit are "meaningfully lower" than the market is implying and for investors willing to look through short-term volatility, current sterling levels are attractive.

The bank said the market was pricing 40%-45% odds of Britain ending its post-Brexit transition period without reaching a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

While those odds could rise further, Goldman Sachs said the UK government was aware how damaging a no-deal outcome would be to the economy.

07:01
Asian session review: the dollar traded stable against the euro

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
04:30JapanTertiary Industry Index July7.9% -0.5%
04:30JapanIndustrial Production (YoY)July-18.2% -15.5%
04:30JapanIndustrial Production (MoM) July1.9%8%8.7%


During today's Asian session, the US dollar stabilized against the euro and declined against the yen. This week, traders are waiting for the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

Investors' appetite for risk was boosted by news of the resumption of trials of a vaccine being developed by pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.

Meanwhile, the Liberal democratic party of Japan is due to choose its Chairman on Monday to become the country's Prime Minister. The key candidate for the post is Japanese Cabinet Secretary General Yoshihide Suga, who is expected to continue Shinzo Abe's course of maintaining low borrowing costs and deregulation.

The Tankan index, which measures the level of business confidence of large Japanese manufacturing companies, rose by 4 points in September compared to the previous month and amounted to -29 points. The value of the indicator was the highest in six months, but industrial companies remain pessimistic about the pace of economic growth.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 0.17% during trading.

06:41
Goldman, Deutsche say U.S. stock selloff may be close to an end

Bloomberg reports that according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, the recent pullback in U.S. stocks could be close to an end if history is a guide, 

Its magnitude has matched a “typical” selloff in the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, albeit at a faster pace, wrote a team led by Goldman’s David Kostin in a note. And options positioning -- at the core of the weakness -- has normalized, noted their counterparts at Deutsche including Srineel Jalagani.

“Despite the sharp sell-off in the past week, we remain optimistic about the path of the U.S. equity market in coming months,” wrote the Goldman strategists. “Since the financial crisis, the typical S&P 500 pullback of 5% or more has lasted for 20 trading days and extended by 7% from peak to trough, matching the magnitude of the most recent pullback if not the speed.”

Meanwhile, the Deutsche team focused on the impact of the options market, using a metric that looks at the number of bearish contracts relative to bullish ones. It had fallen to the bottom of its 10-year range -- indicating an extreme level of positive sentiment -- but after the correction has already recovered to “about average” levels, the team said.

“Historically, corrections in the put-call ratio have tended to have sharp but short-lived market impacts,” the strategists wrote.

Still, both teams pointed to the U.S. elections as the key source of uncertainty for markets ahead.

06:21
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga poised to win party race, headed for premiership

Reuters reports that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, a longtime loyal aide of outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was poised to win a ruling party leadership election on Monday, virtually ensuring that he replaces Abe this week in the nation’s top job.

Suga, who has said he would pursue Abe’s key economic and foreign policies, is expected to get the bulk of votes from 394 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers and is likely to win a majority of 141 votes from the party’s local chapters.

Suga was on track to win over 70% of the MPs’ votes and was leading among local chapters, public broadcaster NHK reported.

The winner of the LDP race is virtually certain to be elected prime minister in a parliamentary vote on Wednesday because of the LDP’s majority in the lower house. He will serve out Abe’s term as party leader through September 2021.

Abe, Japan’s longest serving premier, said last month he would quit due to ill health, ending a nearly eight-year term.

06:02
GBP/USD could slip back to 1.2680 – UOB

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable’s outlook remains weak and could drop to the 1.2680 region in the next weeks.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We expected GBP to weaken since earlier this week. In our latest narrative from Wednesday (09 Sep, spot at 1.2965), we highlighted that ‘while the rapid drop appears to be overdone, strong downward momentum suggests GBP could weaken further towards the critical support at 1.2855’. We added, ‘a clear break of this level could potentially lead to further weakness towards 1.2680’. The 1.2855 level did not offer any ‘support' as GBP crashed to an overnight low of 1.2773. In other words, the outlook for GBP remains weak and the next level to focus on is at 1.2680. Looking forward, the next support is at 1.2610. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 1.3050 from 1.3120 previously. On a shorter-term note, 1.2950 is already quite a solid level.”


05:03
Options levels on monday, September 14, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1973 (3803)

$1.1946 (2423)

$1.1922 (577)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1846

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1782 (900)

$1.1759 (1238)

$1.1733 (2965)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 62387 contracts (according to data from September, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4415);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3083 (257)

$1.3021 (185)

$1.2948 (214)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2818

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2728 (623)

$1.2695 (850)

$1.2652 (1134)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 13585 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (1156);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 15057 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3150 (2619);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 11

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

04:46
Japan: Industrial Production, July -15.5%, (YoY)
04:46
Japan: Industrial Production, July 8.7% (forecast 8%), (MoM)
04:31
Japan: Tertiary Industry Index , July -0.5%
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Friday, September 11, 2020
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 39.61 0.35
Silver 26.7 -0.52
Gold 1940.288 -0.28
Palladium 2308.88 0.91
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Friday, September 11, 2020
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 171.02 23406.49 0.74
Hang Seng 189.77 24503.31 0.78
KOSPI 0.21 2396.69 0.01
ASX 200 -49.1 5859.4 -0.83
FTSE 100 28.77 6032.09 0.48
DAX -6.05 13202.84 -0.05
CAC 40 10.21 5034.14 0.2
Dow Jones 131.06 27665.64 0.48
S&P 500 1.78 3340.97 0.05
NASDAQ Composite -66.05 10853.55 -0.6
00:30
Schedule for today, Monday, September 14, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index July 7.9%  
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) July -18.2%  
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) July 1.9% 8%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) July -12.3% -8.2%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) July 9.1% 4%
12:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings    
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, September 11, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72808 0.36
EURJPY 125.725 0.23
EURUSD 1.18451 0.23
GBPJPY 135.823 -0.01
GBPUSD 1.27961 -0.02
NZDUSD 0.66647 0.31
USDCAD 1.31812 -0.07
USDCHF 0.90878 -0.1
USDJPY 106.135 0.01

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