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- Gold price trades on a softer note near $2,430 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Safe-haven flows amid elevated geopolitical risks might support the yellow metal.
- Traders await key US economic data this week for fresh catalysts, including PPI, CPI and Retail Sales.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a negative note around $2,430 during the early Asian session on Monday. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) drags the yellow metal lower on the day. However, the downside might be limited amid the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Tensions in the Middle East would maintain the XAU/USD bid, with reports showing an intensification of the war. On Sunday, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran's military preparations indicated the country is preparing for a large-scale strike on Israel, according to Axios writer Barak Ravid on X, citing a person familiar with the call.
Heightened volatility and elevated geopolitical risks are likely to boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. “In the medium term, the outlook for gold remains positive, with any dips likely to be short-lived due to underlying macroeconomic factors,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
Investors are split on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would be aggressive in its monetary policy by announcing a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut or a 25 bps cut. The key US economic data this week might offer some hints about economic conditions, with the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales. The stronger-than-expected data might delay or diminish the odds of deeper Fed rate cuts, which weigh on the Gold price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Sunday that she still sees upside risks for inflation and continued strength in the labor market, highlighting the Fed may not be ready to cut rates when US central bankers next meet in September, per Bloomberg.
Key quotes
“The progress in lowering inflation during May and June is a welcome development, but inflation is still uncomfortably above the committee’s 2% goal.”
“I will remain cautious in my approach to considering adjustments to the current stance of policy.”
"Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment.”
"But we need to be patient and avoid undermining continued progress on lowering inflation by overreacting to any single data point.”
"With some upside risks to inflation, I still see the need to pay close attention to the price-stability side of our mandate while watching for risks of a material weakening in the labor market.”
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.08% higher on the day at 103.23, as of writing.
- AUD/USD edges higher to near 0.6575 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The RBA’s hawkish tone and hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI inflation data support the Aussie.
- Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the pair’s upside.
The AUD/USD pair trades on a stronger note near 0.6575 during the early Asian session on Monday. The hawkish messages from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and hotter Chinese inflation data provide some support to the Aussie. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the pair.
The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% for a sixth consecutive meeting last week. RBA governor Michele Bullock noted the upside risks to inflation and will not hesitate to raise rates if it needs to. Westpac analysts forecast the first-rate cut will occur in February 2025 from the previously expected November 2024. The hawkish stance of the Australian Central Bank is likely to underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the near term.
Additionally, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago due to seasonal factors like weather, lifting the AUD. Nonetheless, concerns about sluggish Chinese demand persist and might limit the pair’s upside. Traders will take more cues from Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production on Thursday. Also, the Australian employment data will be released.
On the other hand, markets remain convinced the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start easing monetary policy at its upcoming meeting in September. The CME FedWatch Tool showed the possibility of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed at the September meeting at 52.5%, down from 57.5% a day ago.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Iran's military preparations indicated the country is preparing for a large-scale strike on Israel, according to Axios writer Barak Ravid on X, citing a person familiar with the call. Any signs of rising geopolitical risks might boost safe-haven flows and benefit the Greenback.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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