Tin tức thì trường

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 2.032 million barrels in the week ended September 4. Economists had forecast a decrease of 1.335 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 2.954 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 2.384 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 1.675 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a drop of 0.557 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased by 300,000 barrels a day to 10.000 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.4 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous week.

The European Commission released the statement following the extraordinary meeting of its Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič with Michael Gove, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, which took place today in London.

• Vice-President stated, in no uncertain terms, that the timely and full implementation of Withdrawal Agreement, including the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is a legal obligation; EU expects the letter and spirit of this Agreement to be fully respected
• Violating the terms of Withdrawal Agreement would break international law, undermine trust and put at risk the ongoing future relationship negotiations
• Neither EU nor UK can unilaterally change, clarify, amend, interpret, disregard or disapply the agreement
• Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland is essential part of Withdrawal Agreement, aiming to protect peace and stability on the island of Ireland
• Šefčovič stated that if the Bill were to be adopted, it would constitute an extremely serious violation of the Withdrawal Agreement and of international law
• If adopted as proposed, the draft bill would be in clear breach of substantive provisions of the Protocol: Article 5 (3) & (4) and Article 10 on custom legislation and State aid, including amongst other things, the direct effect of the Withdrawal Agreement (Article 4); in addition, the UK government would be in violation of the good faith obligation under the Withdrawal Agreement (Article 5) as the draft Bill jeopardises the attainment of the objectives of the Agreement
• EU does not accept the argument that aim of the draft Bill is to protect the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement
• Vice-President called on UK government to withdraw these measures from the draft Bill in the shortest time possible and in any case by the end of the month; stated that by putting forward this Bill, the UK has seriously damaged trust between the EU and the UK

FXStreet notes that after the fall in the equity market caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the market's recovery was much faster and more drastic in the US than in the Eurozone, to the point that there is no longer any sign of the crisis in the US. Analysts at Natixis seek to identify the reasons for the significantly better performance of the US equity market.

“The weight of technology shares in the US is often mentioned. However, the difference in the weight of technology companies between the two markets, given the relative performance of technology shares, cannot explain the performance gap between the US and European equity markets. At most, it explains 30% of it.”

“The outlook for growth and earnings is no better in the United States than in the Eurozone.”

“The difference is explained by demand. If the difference between equity market performance in the US and in the Eurozone since May 2020 is only marginally explained by the weight of technology shares, is not explained by prospects for growth and earnings, is only marginally explained by the gap between interest rates and growth rates, then it can only be explained by share buying behaviour.”

“Savers/investors are less averse to equity risk in the US than in the Eurozone, which also explains the higher weighting of equities in portfolios in the US.”

The Commerce Department announced on Thursday the U.S. wholesale inventories dropped 0.3 percent m-o-m in July, worse than the preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent m-o-m decline.

Economists had forecast the reading to stay unrevised at -0.1 percent m-o-m.

In June, wholesale inventories fell by 1.3 percent m-o-m.

According to the report, durable goods inventories declined 0.9 percent m-o-m in July, while stocks of nondurable goods increased 0.6 percent m-o-m.

In y-o-y terms, wholesale inventories dropped 5.6 percent in July.

FXStreet notes that USD/CAD has reverted back lower from the crucial 32.8% retracement of the June/September fall at 1.3270 and the loonie is pressuring against the back of the broken March downtrend at 1.3129. A close beneath this level is set to reinforce thoughts that the medium-term downtrend is taking back over, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

“USD/CAD remained capped at the crucial 32.8% retracement of the June/September fall at 1.3270 as expected on Wednesday, completing a minor intraday top to leave the market pressuring the back of the broken March downtrend at 1.3129.” 

“A close beneath 1.3129 would reinforce the view that the setback is over and that the medium-term downtrend is taking back over. Support is seen thereafter at 1.3088/76, beneath which should allow for a move back to 1.3047/38. Removal of here would then reinforce the bearish bias further for a fall back to 1.2994, then medium-term support at 1.2952.” 

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday, as tech shares continued their rebound despite the release of disappointing data on weekly jobless claims, suggesting a choppy economic recovery.

Global Stocks:

• There is no need to overreact to euro gains
• We have to monitor carefully exchange rate, discuss extensively
• Strength of recovery remains surrounded by uncertainty
• Rebound broadly in line with previous expectations
• Domestic demand recorded significant recovery
• Uncertainty weighing on consumer spending and business investment
• Inflation dampened by energy prices
• Ample monetary stimulus remains necessary
• Incoming data suggest notable recovery in consumption
• Over the medium term, recovery in demand will put upward pressure on inflation
  
• Coronavirus case infections constitute headwinds to short term outlook
• Further sustained recovery highly dependent on the evolution of pandemic
• Projections also include alternative scenarios
• Growth risks tilted to the downside
• Headline inflation is expected to remain negative in the coming months
• Inflation to turn positive in early 2021
• ECB sees 2020 GDP contraction at 8.0% (versus -8.7% projected in June), 2021 GDP growth at 5% (versus 5.2% in June) and 2022 GDP growth at 3.2% (versus 3.3% in June)
• ECB sees 2020 inflation at 0.3% (versus 0.3% forecast in June), 2021 inflation at 1% (versus 0.8% in June) and 2022 inflation at 1.3% (versus 1.3% in June)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners; target $55

The Labor Department reported on Thursday the U.S. producer-price index (PPI) rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in August, following an unrevised 0.6 percent m-o-m advance in July.

For the 12 months through August, the PPI fell 0.2 percent after an unrevised 0.4 percent decrease in the previous month.

Economists had forecast the headline PPI would increase 0.2 percent m-o-m but drop 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.

According to the report, the August gain in the final demand index was led by a 0.5-percent m-o-m climb in the index for final demand services. Meanwhile, prices for final demand goods also increased, edging up 0.1 percent m-o-m.

Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the PPI rose 0.4 percent m-o-m and 0.6 percent over 12 months. Economists had forecast gains of 0.2 percent m-o-m and 0.3 percent y-o-y.

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment was unchanged last week but exceeded economists’ forecast, as the U.S. labor market is trying to recover from its biggest shock in history, caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 884,000 for the week ended September 5. That brought the number of job losses over the past twenty-five weeks (since the U.S. went into coronavirus lockdown in mid-March) to near 60.2 million.

Economists had expected 846,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 884,000 from the initial estimate of 881,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims fell to 970,750 from an upwardly revised 992,500 in the previous week.

Continuing claims increased to 13,385,000 million from an upwardly revised 13,292,000 in the previous week.

EUR rose against most other major currencies in the European session on Thursday after the release of the latest monetary policy statement by the European Central Bank (ECB), which, in general, offered nothing new for market participants. 

At its latest monetary policy meeting, the ECB’s policymakers made no changes to its policy stance. The Bank’s key interest rates were left unchanged, as widely expected. The Bank also repeated its pledge to continue its purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of EUR1,350 billion. The purchases under the PEPP were confirmed to be conducted until at least the end of June 2021 and, in any case, until the ECB’s governing council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. The Bank also repeated its promise to continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations as well as to continue purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of EUR20 billion, together with the purchases under the additional EUR120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year.

The announced outcomes of the ECB’s September meeting were in line with markets' expectations. Market participants’ attention is now turning towards the press conference by the ECB’s President Christine Lagar (due at 12:30 GMT), during which she is to take questions from the media as well. Investors are looking forward to the ECB’s latest economic forecasts, thoughts on inflation and the strength of the euro. 

May we remind that the euro rebounded yesterday after media reported that some policymakers of ECB “have become more confident in their economic forecasts”.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remained its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00 percent on Thursday, as widely expected. Its interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also left unchanged at 0.25 percent and -0.50 percent, respectively.

In its policy statement, the ECB said:

• Governing Council expects key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon;
• Governing Council will continue its purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with total envelope of EUR1,350 billion; the purchases will continue to be conducted in flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions;
• Will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until at least the end of June 2021 and, in any case, until it judges that coronavirus crisis phase is over;
• Will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2022;
• Net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at monthly pace of EUR20 billion, together with the purchases under additional EUR120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year; monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates;
• Governing Council will also continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations;
• Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.

ING's James Smith and Petr Krpata, CFA, note that they continue to see GBP as unprepared for the stream of downside risks, and following the market complacency during the summer months, they estimate that only a limited degree of risk premium is priced into the currency (just around 1% in EUR/GBP vs 5% risk premium pricing in late June). This allows for a further GBP decline.

"We look for EUR/GBP to break the multi-month high of 0.9176 in coming days. Not only is a limited degree of risk premium is priced into GBP, but the speculative positioning does not seem stretched (the latest CFTC data still show a neutral positioning in GBP/USD), in turn allowing for a build-up in GBP shorts which would help facilitate further GBP downside."

"As we noted in this article, GBP: Summer is over, brace for the reality check, should there be no trade deal, we expect EUR/GBP to break above this year’s high of 0.95 and potentially test parity."

"Indeed, even with a limited deal in place, the change in UK-EU trade terms would leave the UK at risk of a slower recovery versus its peers, taming the potential medium-term upside to both GBP spot and its fair value. In the case of no trade deal being agreed, such a trend would gain even more traction and, coupled with the likely response and more easing from the Bank of England, which could include the possibility of negative interest rates, the outlook for sterling would clearly deteriorate and the currency would come under further pressure."

FXStreet reports that the S&P 500 has rebounded but analysts at Credit Suisse look for resistance from the 13-day average at 3425/35 to ideally cap further strength for a deeper corrective setback to test support at 3280/60.

“S&P 500 has rebounded but on lighter volume than the sell-off seen over the past few days and with the market still holding below its 13-day exponential average, currently at 3435, our bias remains to view this as a temporary bounce and for a more protracted consolidation phase to emerge within the broader uptrend.” 

“We look for resistance at 3425/35 to try and cap further strength with support seen at 3390 initially, then 3367, below which should see a move back to 3330/26. An eventual move below here can see support next at 3307/03 ahead of our ‘ideal’ objective of what we continue to look to be better support at 3280/59 where we will look for a floor – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from mid-May, 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from March, July high and 63-day average.”

FXStreet notes that Brexit-related trade anxiety has resurfaced over the past week. A ‘no-deal’ would slow the UK’s post-lockdown recovery. Economists at ANZ forecast EUR/GBP and GBP/AUD at 0.92 and 1.75 respectively.

“In the absence of an improvement in the trade talks, sterling is likely to remain under pressure.”

“Unless there is a compromise from both sides, the risks to investment and hiring from heightened trade uncertainty will rise. The policy mix is also unsupportive whilst, in a low inflation world, currency depreciation can help to boost competitiveness.” 

“Our forecasts look for EUR/GBP to move towards 0.92 in coming months with GBP/AUD declining towards 1.75. Broad-based GBP weakness has been evident across the board and in the absence of a trade deal, that trend may extend.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that EUR/JPY has successfully held key support from its late August low at 124.44 to avoid a top, for now at least, but with resistance at 126.04/08 needed to be cleared to see the core uptrend resume.

“EUR/JPY has successfully defended key support from its late August low at 124.44 and although the subsequent strong recovery did not quite complete a bullish ‘reversal day’, the market came close to doing so.”

“Above 125.65/71 is needed to see the immediate risk stay higher with key resistance still seen at 126.04/08. Above here is needed to suggest the threat of a top has indeed been curtailed, reasserting the underlying uptrend for strength back to the 127.08 recent high, then the 2019 high ad long-term downtrend at 127.41/52.”

“Below 125.29 would ease the immediate upside bias, but with a move below 124.92 needed to warn of a retest of 124.44.”

The bill is to proceed through its further stages into the week after.

Reuters reports that the Bank of Japan is expected to offer a brighter view next week on the economy, output and exports than in July to signal that they are starting to recover from the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic, sources familiar with its thinking said.

But the BOJ will warn at its rate review that any recovery will be modest and bound with uncertainty, as fears over a renewed spike in infections and fragile global demand weigh on household and corporate spending, the sources said.

"It's clear the economy is bouncing back from a severe downturn in April-June, which was blamed largely on lock-down measures to contain the pandemic," one of the sources said, a view echoed by two other sources.

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, assessed the latest set of inflation figures in the Chinese economy.

“China’s CPI moderated to 2.4% y/y in August… Food price inflation eased to 11.2% y/y from 13.2% y/y in July while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged at 0.5% y/y. Given the high base of comparison, we expect the headline inflation to moderate to under 2.0% in 4Q with full-year averaging around 3.0%.”

“UOB Group maintain forecast for the 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.75% by end-2020 from current 3.85% but acknowledge that a further rate cut is looking less probable now as data points to sustained growth recovery in 3Q.”

According to the report from Istat, in July 2020 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index increased by 7.4% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected a 4.4% increase. The change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was 15.0%. The index measures the monthly evolution of the volume of industrial production (excluding construction). 

The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 8.0% compared with July 2019 (calendar working days in July 2020 being the same as in July 2019).

The unadjusted industrial production index decreased by 8.0% compared with July 2019.

Reuters reports that German economic institute DIW said it expects the country's economy to decline by 6% this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, revising upwards an earlier estimate of a 9.4% contraction.

"The German economy is doing well, considering the circumstances," DIW analyst Claus Michelsen said.

For next year, DIW raised its GDP growth forecast to 4.1% from 3% in June but cautioned that the pandemic could still lead to setbacks.

"It would be wrong to believe that the crisis will be over quickly," DIW President Marcel Fratzscher said.

Germany's economy shrank by an unprecedented 9.7% in the second quarter, a contraction that without government countermeasures would have been accompanied by a wave of bankruptcies and mass unemployment.

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the idea of a weaker USD/CNH seems to have lost some traction in past sessions.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from Monday (07 Sep, spot at 6.8360) wherein ‘downward momentum has eased somewhat but there is still chance for USD to push lower towards 6.8000’. Momentum has eased further as USD staged a relatively strong advance of +0.32% yesterday (NY close of 6.8536). From here, unless USD moves and stays below 6.8350 within these 1 to 2 days, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 6.8800 (no change in level) would not be surprising and would indicate that the negative phase in USD that started in midAugust has run its course. To put it another way, the odds for further USD weakness have diminished considerably.”

CNBC reports that market watchers believe the European Central Bank (ECB) could fine-tune its policies today, and may even follow the Federal Reserve by revising its inflation targets in the longer term.

The ECB’s Governing Council convenes on Thursday to discuss its monetary policy stance and its assessment of the euro zone economy. Since its last meeting, economic data has shown signs of a slowing of the recovery, the euro has appreciated and core inflation slumped to a new record low in August. 

While the majority of analysts don’t expect much policy action and think the ECB will wait until December, there is a remote chance of tweaks to its guidance this week, backed by new staff projections.

“In response to a downward revision of the medium-term inflation outlook, we expect the ECB to tweak its guidance at the Governing Council tomorrow,” said Florian Heise of Berenberg in a research note 

“The ECB may stress more than before that the 1.35 trillion euro envelope of the PEPP (the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase program) is a target not a ceiling.”

“The appreciation of the euro is starting to become a headache for the ECB,” said Dirk Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis. 

“While it has not reached a point yet where a majority in the Governing Council sees a need for action, we expect some ‘verbal intervention’ from President (Christine) Lagarde during the press conference, signalling the ECB’s willingness to ease policy further, should this be deemed necessary.”

FXStreet reports that Rabobank’s forecast suggests scope for AUD/USD a move back towards 0.68 on a three-month view. 

“We are more constructive on the outlook for the USD than the market consensus. It is likely that we are also more concerned about the prospects for the Chinese recovery going into the end of the year. In view of the economic slack in the Australian economy, it is possible that policy makers will want to shake off the reputation of being the least dovish central bank in the G10 in the coming months. Layered on top of these arguments are concerns about the economic impact of the drawn out lockdown in Melbourne and from the testy relations between Canberra and Beijing. All these factors could conceivably weigh on AUD/USD in the coming months.”

“The combination of slower US growth in Q4 and continued US/China tensions is likely to impact China’s recovery. Insofar as Europe is already facing reports of a resurgence in COVID-19, it is likely that disappointment about the global economic outlook could become more broad based. All of these factors would undermine market confidence and have the potential to support the USD.” 

Reuters reports that new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in China surged 26% on year to 109,000 units in August for their second consecutive month of gain, a promising sign for automakers that have invested heavily in the world's biggest market for electric vehicles (EVs).

For the full year, NEV sales are likely to reach 1.1 million vehicles, down around 11% from last year, said the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on Thursday.

NEVs include battery-powered electric, plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

China's overall auto sales in August rose 11.6% to 2.19 million vehicles from the same month a year earlier, the fifth consecutive month of gain as China comes off lows hit during the coronavirus lockdown in the first few months of the year.

Sales are still down 9.7% for the first eight months of the year at 14.55 million vehicles, CAAM said.

The euro is strengthening against most currencies ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

Experts do not expect the ECB to adopt new stimulus measures at its meeting on Thursday, but believe that the Central Bank can set the stage for easing policy later this year. "The September meeting will be a passing one, and it is worth waiting for action from the ECB later," the BofA review notes.

According to BofA experts, the ECB may increase the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase program (PEPP) by 500 billion euros in December, which currently amounts to 1.35 trillion euros, and extend this program until the end of 2021.

Economists expect the ECB on Thursday to comment on the recent strengthening of the euro and possibly note the need to monitor the dynamics of the currency exchange rate.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell 0.14% during trading.

According to the report from INSEE, in July 2020, output continued to recover in the manufacturing industry (+4.5%, after +14.8% in June), as well as in the whole industry (+3.8%, after +13.0% in June). Economists had expected a 5.0% increase in the whole industry.

Compared to February (the last month before the start of the general lockdown), output declined in the manufacturing industry (−7.9%), as well as in the whole industry (−7.1%).

Over the last three months, manufacturing output increased in manufacturing industry (+5.4%), as well as in the whole industry (+5.0%). Over this period, output continued to recover in all industrial activities. 

Manufacturing output of the last three months declined sharply compared to the same three months of 2019 (−15.3%), as well as in the whole industry (−14.3%).

Over a year, output plunged in the manufacture of transport equipment (−36.5%) and in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (−31.7%). It fell strongly in “other manufacturing” (−13.6%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (−13.6%) and in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (−8.9%). It diminished more moderately in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−3.5%).

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted that further losses lie ahead for EUR/USD if 1.1750 is cleared in the near-term.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Thursday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1830), we indicated that EUR ‘has moved into a consolidation phase but is likely to test the bottom of the expected 1.1750/1.1950 range first’. After a few days, EUR is approaching 1.1750 as it dropped to an overnight low of 1.1764. Downward momentum is beginning to improve albeit not by much. While a breach of 1.1750 would not be surprising, EUR has to close below this level before a sustained decline can be expected. To look at it another way, a daily closing below 1.1750 could lead to a move towards the next major support at 1.1660. For now, the prospect for such a scenario is not high but it would increase quickly within these few days unless EUR moves back above 1.1845.”

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German local courts reported 9,006 business insolvencies in the first half of 2020. Destatis reports that this was a decline of 6.2% compared with the first half of 2019. Actually, the economic problems of many businesses owing to the coronavirus crisis have not been reflected yet by an increase in reported business insolvencies. A reason is that the obligation to file for insolvency has been suspended since 1 March 2020.

Most business insolvencies occurred in the commercial sector (including maintenance and repair of motor vehicles) in the first half of 2020, with 1,485 cases (first half of 2019: 1,653). Companies in the construction industry filed 1 462 insolvency applications (first half of 2019: 1 586). 1 004 (first half of 2019: 1 143) and 974 (first half of 2019: 1 032) insolvency applications were filed in the hospitality industry.

According to information provided by the local courts, the anticipated claims of creditors resulting from applied-for corporate insolvencies rose significantly to EUR 16.7 billion in the first half of 2020. In the first half of 2019, they stood at 10.2 billion euros. This increase in receivables, combined with a decrease in the number of business insolvencies, is due to the fact that more economically significant companies filed for bankruptcy in the first half of 2020 than in the same period in 2019.

eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for ECB policy meeting.

"The latest correction lower in the EUR has been broad-based and seems driven by profit-taking by FX investors who have amassed record longs in the single currency of late according to our positioning data.

We believe that President Christine Lagarde may emphasize the ECB’s ability to ease aggressively further if needed. Moreover, ahead of the September meeting, the ECB’s chief economist has signalled that EUR/USD ‘matters’ while media reports have suggested that several Governing Council members worry about the impact of the resurgent EUR on the Eurozone’s exports and inflation," CACIB notes.

"We therefore think that Madame Lagarde may jawbone the EUR and fuel FX volatility this week. We doubt that this can trigger a sustainable EUR downtrend, however, in the absence of further policy rate cuts. The EUR therefore could become an interesting buy on dips once the correction of the market longs has run its course," CACIB adds. 

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1943 (2425)

$1.1918 (639)

$1.1898 (151)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1825

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1760 (901)

$1.1740 (439)

$1.1715 (2857)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 57956 contracts (according to data from September, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (4398);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3271 (656)

$1.3207 (459)

$1.3155 (258)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3003

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2867 (623)

$1.2842 (710)

$1.2814 (838)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 4 is 12813 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (1157);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 4 is 13446 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2621);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.