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Major US stock indexes finished the session mixed, as the deterioration in the forecast profit from the network of pharmacies Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. put pressure on the pharmaceutical sector, while investors were looking for additional signals that would ease concerns about economic growth.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) announced it had received adjusted quarterly earnings of $ 1.64 per share, which was 8 cents below the average forecast of analysts. The company's revenues also fell somewhat short of market expectations, and at Walgreens they lowered their profit forecast for the current fiscal year. The cost of WBA shares has fallen by more than 13%.

Market participants also analyzed data from the Department of Commerce, which showed that orders for durable goods produced in the United States dropped sharply in February. According to the report, the total volume of orders for durable goods, ranging from toasters and ending with airplanes for three years or more, fell by -1.6% in February after rising by 0.1% in January. This reflects a 4.8% drop in demand for transport equipment. Economists had expected durable goods orders to fall by -1.8% compared with a 0.3% increase reported in the previous month. However, with the exception of a significant reduction in orders for transportation equipment, orders for durable goods actually increased by 0.1% in February, after a decrease of -0.1% in January. It was expected that the volume of orders with the exception of transport equipment will increase by 0.2%.

In addition, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that world trade declined by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and is likely to grow by 2.6% this year, which is below the 3% growth recorded in 2018 year, and below the previous forecast of the organization + 3.7%. The WTO said that increasing trade tensions is the main reason for reducing the forecast.

At the same time, IMF head Christine Lagarde reported that the Fund estimates that 70% of the global economy will experience a slowdown this year, but does not expect a recession in the short term.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (21 out of 30). Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. was an outsider. (WBA; -13.18%). The growth leader was Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 1.59%).

Most sectors of the S & P recorded an increase. The technological sector has grown more than the rest (+ 0.3%). The largest decline was shown by the base materials sector (-0.2%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,179.13 -79.29 -0.30%

S & P 500 2,867.23 +0.04 +0.00%

Nasdaq 100 7,848.69 +19.78 +0.25%

• "There is still time for the prime minister to come to the European Council with proposals, proposals that are credible and have a clear pathway to success,” Varadkar said as he arrived in Paris for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.
• “We need to be open to any proposals that she may bring forward to us,” adding that as things stood Britain was heading towards a no-deal exit.

• “With the March release of PMIs, we see clearer signs of recovery in China. The rise in March may be too good to be true and we could see a correction in April (not least in the Caixin version, which reached a quite high level). However, the improvement in China is visible in a broad range of indicators now, such as metal markets and PMI in other Asian economies, which have a high share of exports to China.”
• “Looking forward we continue to look for a moderate recovery in 2019 on the back of stimulus kicking in with more force and reduced uncertainty, as we expect a US-China trade deal in coming months. On the back of this outlook, we look for more upside in emerging market assets and Chinese equities. The disinflationary pressure from China is also set to subside over the year, as commodity prices rise gradually.”

• Global GDP growth has lost momentum since January forecast of 3.5% fro 2019 and 2020
• Expexts 70% of global economy will experience a slowdown this year
• Sees some pickup in growth in the second half of 2019 and into 2020 due to "more patient" stance at Fed, other central banks and Chinese stimulus
• Expected rebound in growth this year is "precarious" and vulnerable to trade risks, brexit and unease in financial markets
• Sharper-than-expected tightening of financial conditions is another risk
• Warns again that there will be no winners in a trade war between the U.S. and China

U.S. stock-index flat on Tuesday as investors took a breather after a three-day surge on Wall Street, while looking for more signs of strength in the economy.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the durable goods orders fell 1.6 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in January (originally a 0.4 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast a 1.8 percent m-o-m decrease.

According to the report, transportation equipment drove the decrease. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding transportation edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m, following an unrevised 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in January and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.1 percent m-o-m in February, after increasing 0.9 percent m-o-m in January. Economists had forecast core capital goods orders unchanged in February.

Shipments of these core capital goods were also unchanged in February after a revised 1.0 percent m-o-m rise in the prior month (originally a 0.8 percent m-o-m increase).

Walt Disney (DIS) initiated with Buy at Rosenblatt Securities; target $150

Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; target lowered to $31

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.64 per share (versus $1.73 in Q2 FY 2018), missing analysts’ consensus of $1.72.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $34.528 bln (+4.6% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $34.567 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of $5.98 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $6.38.

WBA fell to $58.22 (-8.33 %) in pre-market trading.

ITV's political correspondent Paul Brand ‏tweeted: "Cross-party MPs to present bill ruling out No Deal on 12th April".

• PM is still opposed to second Brexit referendum
• May doesn't want a long Brexit extension
• Says that Barnier's comments are 'nothing new'
• Cabinet ministers will discuss result of indicative votes and the best way to proceed

• Said the world trade fell by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018
• For the full year, reported a 3.0 percent increase, down from 4.6 percent in 2017
• Noted trade had been weighed down by new tariffs and retaliatory measures, weaker economic growth, volatility in financial markets and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries
• Cut its 2019 forecast for global trade volume to 2.6 percent from 3.7 percent, citing rising trade tensions the major factor for the outlook downgrade
• Forecast goods trade volumes to grow more strongly in developing economies this year, with 3.4 percent growth in exports compared with 2.1 percent in developed economies
• Added the forecast is highly uncertain; actual growth rate could be even higher or lower if trade tensions grow further or ease

• Depending on the flow of economic data, the timing can be adapted with any necessary flexibility
• The intensity of the various mechanisms should be calibrated with total pragmatism

• Long-term REPOs are precautionary step to provide additional flexibility on liquidity
• Will continue to offer indexed long-term REPOs on weekly basis until end of June 2019

Goldman Sachs analysts warn markets that the risk of a general election in the UK has intensified following the rejection of all the four indicative votes by the UK parliament a day before.

• Modified Brexit deal now seen at 45% versus previously seen at 50%.

• No Brexit via second referendum seen at 40% versus previously seen at 35%.

• No-deal Brexit seen at 15% versus unchanged from the previous.

• Risks around the timing of the ratification of that modified Brexit deal are now skewed towards a long Article 50 extension (of greater than one year) rather than a short extension (of fewer than three months).

Occasional bullish attempts in Cable are expected to struggle in the 1.3160 region (20-day SMA), noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

“GBP/USD has bounced aggressively off the 200 day ma at 1.2976 – this has neutralised our immediate outlook. While we would allow for a rebound from the 200 day ma, it should be noted that downside risks are growing and intraday rallies are likely to struggle on rallies to the 1.3161 20 day ma. Below the 200 day ma lies the 1.2929 55 week ma and the double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895, this is pretty solid support that is expected to hold the downside. This guards the recent low at 1.2772. The market recently reached 1.3382 before failing. Should the 55 week ma hold, our overall target remains the 1.3552 200 week ma”.

According to estimates from Eurostat, in February 2019, compared with January 2019, industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28. In January 2019, prices increased by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU28.

In February 2019, compared with February 2018, industrial producer prices rose by 3.0% in the euro area and by 3.1% in the EU28.

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in February 2019, compared with January 2019, rose by 0.2% in the energy sector, by 0.1% for both capital goods and durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for nondurable consumer goods and fell by 0.1% for intermediate goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.

In the EU28, industrial producer prices rose by 0.7% in the energy sector, by 0.2% for durable consumer goods, by 0.1% for both intermediate goods and capital goods, while non-durable consumer goods remained stable. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.

According to the report from IHS Markit, the recent soft patch for UK construction output continued during March. Another fall in commercial work and civil engineering activity more than offset a modest upturn in residential building. New business and employment numbers increased only slightly at the end of the first quarter, reflecting subdued underlying demand and delays to decision-making among clients.

Adjusted for seasonal influences, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Total Activity Index posted 49.7, up fractionally from 49.5 in February but still below the 50.0 no-change threshold. Economists had expected increase to 49.8. The sustained decline in total construction activity represented the first back-to-back fall in output levels since August 2016, although the rate of decline remained only marginal in March.

Meanwhile, business optimism edged up from the four-month low seen during February. However, the degree of positivity remained much weaker than the long-term survey average. A number of construction companies noted that economic and political uncertainty had weighed on business expectations for the next 12 months.

The global economy is "highly likely" to fall into a recession if the U.S. and China don't reach a trade deal within three months, according to Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi.

His prediction was based on current "extraordinarily fragile" business sentiment that was a result of a protracted tariff fight between the two largest economies in the world that started last year.

"Business sentiment across the globe is extraordinarily fragile," the economist told. He added that a survey conducted by Moody's recently showed that confidence among companies was at its weakest since the end of the financial crisis a decade ago.

If talks between the U.S. and China break down and end without a trade deal, that could hurt business sentiment further and lead companies to reduce hiring, he said. When that happens, unemployment would rise, causing consumers to lose faith in the economy, he explained.

Fading exports and worsening finances spurred a darker outlook for British companies last month, hurt by a slowing global economy and political chaos around Brexit, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The British Chambers of Commerce's (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey showed a familiar picture of weak investment ahead of Britain's departure from the EU, across both the manufacturing and services sectors.

The BCC said growth in services exports, which account for about 45% of total exports, slowed to their weakest rate since 2009. Its gauge of firms' cashflow turned negative for the first time since 2012 and investment intentions for both manufacturers and services firms were the weakest in over eight years.

Overall, the BCC report adds to a string of downbeat data from businesses ahead of Brexit, despite solid consumer spending and a robust labour market.

In March 2019 registered unemployment in the offices of the Public Employment Services has been reduced by 167,467 people with respect to the same month of the previous year, with a year-on-year reduction rate of 4.89%. In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment decreased by 12,692 in March compared to the previous month. The number of registered unemployed in the month of March of this year has decreased by 33,956 workers in relation to the previous month. In relative values, this decrease in unemployment is -1.03%. Thus, the total number of unemployed stands at 3,255,084.

Economic data in the U.S. don't justify an interest rate cut by the Fed - despite recent calls for the American central bank to do so, said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

While the U.S. is indeed growing at a slower pace, economic data don't suggest the need to cut interest rates, Zandi told.

"I'm not sure why the Fed needs to go into panic mode here," he said. He pointed to the latest data that showed the U.S. economy was still healthy: Unemployment rate was close to a 50-year low, wage growth was strong, inflation inched closer to the Fed's target of 2% and the stock market looked like it could hit record levels again.

Lowering interest rates under such conditions would be "counter-productive" because the move could "juice things up" and encourage debt to build up in the economy, he explained.

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year.

The 0.5% increase compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for international package holidays and for air transport. In contrast, prices for fruiting vegetables and berries decreased.

In March 2019, the Swiss Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) stood at 101.23 points (base 2015=100). This corresponds to a rate of change of +0.3% compared with the previous month and of +0.7% compared with the same month the previous year. The HICP is a supplementary indicator for inflation based on a harmonised method across EU member countries. It enables inflation in Switzerland to be compared with that of European countries.

• UK still wants to leave the EU in orderly manner, exiting withdrawal agreement i and will be only option

• the only way to avoid no deal Brexit and will be through positive majority in House of Commons

• more than ever today UK should indicate way forward

• if the UK Parliament does not vote in favour of exit deal in coming day, UK would leave without agreement or be forced to ask long delay or Brexit

• strong justification needed for long Brexit delay

• there was misinformation in referendum debate

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair has now shifted its attention to the area of yearly lows in the 1.1180/75 band.

“EUR/USD attention remains on the 1.1176 recent low. The market has recently not sustained breaks to new lows, but there remains a risk of a slide to the 1.1110 end of May 2017 low (not our favoured scenario). We suspect that it is trying to base but needs to do more work (we note the 13 count on the weekly chart). Once above the 200 day MA at 1.1464, the cross should target the 1.1570 January high, together with the 55 week MA at 1.1589”.

• the Australian labour market remains strong.

• there has been a significant increase in employment and the unemployment rate is at 4.9%

• the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas.

• the stronger labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development.

• continued improvement in the labour market is expected to see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.

• GDP data paint a softer picture of the economy than do the labour market data

• outlook for the global economy remains reasonable

• growth has slowed and downside risks have increased

• growth in international trade has declined

• investment intentions have softened in a number of countries

• global financial conditions remain accommodative and have eased recently

• risk premiums remain low

• equity markets have also risen and are being supported by growth in corporate earnings

• the Australian dollar has remained within its narrow range of recent times

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1357 (2807)

$1.1321 (1207)

$1.1299 (282)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1204

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1148 (4713)

$1.1099 (1628)

$1.1050 (1306)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 5 is 79819 contracts (according to data from April, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1150 (4713);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3270 (712)

$1.3220 (335)

$1.3202 (734)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3073

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2994 (1085)

$1.2957 (1343)

$1.2917 (1100)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 5 is 26239 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (4316);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 5 is 32486 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (5047);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.25 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 1

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.