Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Producer price index, q / q | Quarter II | 0.4% | 0.2% |
01:30 | Australia | Producer price index, y/y | Quarter II | 1.9% | 1.9% |
01:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | June | 0.1% | 0.3% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | July | 0% | -0.3% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | July | 0.6% | 0.5% |
07:30 | Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI | July | 47.7 | |
08:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | July | 43.1 | 46 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index (YoY) | June | 1.6% | 0.8% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index, MoM | June | -0.1% | -0.3% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (MoM) | June | -0.3% | 0.2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (YoY) | June | 1.3% | 1.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | July | 34.4 | 34.4 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | July | 17 | 5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | July | 33 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | July | 62.9% | |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | July | 191 | 160 |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | July | 0.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | June | 0.76 | -0.3 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | June | -55.5 | -54.6 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | July | 3.7% | 3.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | July | 224 | 164 |
14:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | June | -0.7% | 0.8% |
14:00 | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | July | 98.2 | 98.5 |
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | August | 776 |
Major US stock indices plummeted and moved to negative territory after US President Trump announced additional duties on imports of new goods from China.
Trump announced an additional 10% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 300 billion, and noted that the additional duty will start on September 1. “We look forward to continuing a constructive dialogue with China on a trade agreement. We thought we made a deal with China three months ago, but unfortunately, China decided to review its terms. The next round of trade negotiations with China is still scheduled for September, ”said Trump.
Trump said that, in his opinion, Xi wants a trade agreement, but “to be honest, he is not fast enough.” Trump also said that the main burden of duties falls on China, not on American consumers, and added that “if China doesn’t want to trade with us anymore, that’s fine with me "
Trump later said that the latest rates could be raised above 25%. He also warned that he could lower or increase tariffs depending on how the negotiations go. Trump also said that new tariffs will be introduced for the "short-term" period.
Most DOW components completed trading in the red (23 out of 30). Outsiders were the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS; -3.87%). The biggest gainers were International Business Machines Corporation (IBM; + 1.40%).
Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The raw materials sector declined the most (-2.5%). Only the utilities sector grew (+ 0.9%).
At the time of closing:
Dow 26,583.42 -280.85 -1.05%
S & P 500 2,953.56 -26.82 -0.90%
Nasdaq 100 8,111.12 -64.30 -0.79%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Producer price index, q / q | Quarter II | 0.4% | 0.2% |
01:30 | Australia | Producer price index, y/y | Quarter II | 1.9% | 1.9% |
01:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | June | 0.1% | 0.3% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | July | 0% | -0.3% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | July | 0.6% | 0.5% |
07:30 | Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI | July | 47.7 | |
08:30 | United Kingdom | PMI Construction | July | 43.1 | 46 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index (YoY) | June | 1.6% | 0.8% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index, MoM | June | -0.1% | -0.3% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (MoM) | June | -0.3% | 0.2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Retail Sales (YoY) | June | 1.3% | 1.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | July | 34.4 | 34.4 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | July | 17 | 5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | July | 33 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | July | 62.9% | |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | July | 191 | 160 |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | July | 0.2% | 0.2% |
12:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | June | 0.76 | -0.3 |
12:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | June | -55.5 | -54.6 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | July | 3.7% | 3.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | July | 224 | 164 |
14:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | June | -0.7% | 0.8% |
14:00 | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | July | 98.2 | 98.5 |
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | August | 776 |
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, notes that the UK manufacturing PMI reading came in at 48.0 in July, indicating a continued contraction in manufacturing activities.
The Commerce
Department said on Thursday that construction spending fell 1.3 percent m-o-m
in June after a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m drop in May (originally a 0.8 percent
m-o-m decline). It was the largest drop since November 2018.
Economists had
forecast construction spending increasing 0.5 percent m-o-m in June.
On a y-o-y
basis, construction spending dropped 1.2 percent in June.
According to
the report, investment in public construction tumbled 3.7 percent m-o-m (the largest
monthly drop since March of 2002), while spending on private construction fell
0.5 percent m-o-m.
A report from
the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Thursday the U.S.
manufacturing sector expanded in July at a slower pace than in June.
The ISM's index
of manufacturing activity came in at 51.2 percent last month, down 0.5
percentage point from the June reading of 51.7 percent, and beat economists'
forecast for a 52.0 percent reading. That was the lowest reading since August
2016.
A reading above
50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates
contraction.
According to
the report, the New Orders Index stood at 50.8 percent, a gain of 0.8 percentage
point from the June reading, while the Inventories Index recorded 49.5 percent,
an increase of 0.4 percentage point, and the Supplier Deliveries Index
registered 53.3 percent, an advance of 2.6 percentage points. At the same time,
the Production Index came in at 50.8 percent in June, a 3.3-percentage point drop
compared to the June reading, and the Employment Index was at 51.7 percent, a
decline of 2.8 percentage point.
Timothy R.
Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The past
relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for
July (51.2 percent) corresponds to a 2.5-percent increase in real gross
domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."
U.S. stock-index futures traded little-changed on Thursday, after the stocks fell the day before on Fed Chair Powell tempering expectations for further rate cuts. Market focus shifted back to corporate earnings
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 21,540.99 | +19.46 | +0.09% |
Hang Seng | 27,565.70 | -212.05 | -0.76% |
Shanghai | 2,908.77 | -23.74 | -0.81% |
S&P/ASX | 6,788.90 | -23.70 | -0.35% |
FTSE | 7,553.81 | -32.97 | -0.43% |
CAC | 5,540.69 | +21.79 | +0.39% |
DAX | 12,213.19 | +24.15 | +0.20% |
Crude oil | $57.56 | -1.74% | |
Gold | $1,417.30 | -1.43% |
Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) took a dovish turn, as it now needs to also see "some recovery in global growth," on top of a smooth Brexit transition, in order to raise rates in the future.
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 174.6 | -0.12(-0.07%) | 2707 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 47.55 | 0.48(1.02%) | 8024 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,876.97 | 10.19(0.55%) | 27199 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 214.4 | 1.36(0.64%) | 200727 |
AT&T Inc | T | 34.04 | -0.01(-0.03%) | 44181 |
Boeing Co | BA | 342.6 | 1.42(0.42%) | 10188 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 132.1 | 0.43(0.33%) | 1485 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 122.69 | -0.42(-0.34%) | 2273 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 55.39 | -0.01(-0.02%) | 8351 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 71.28 | 0.12(0.17%) | 11776 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 165.99 | 0.34(0.21%) | 1000 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 73.75 | 1.59(2.20%) | 2482 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 74.05 | -0.31(-0.42%) | 10730 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 195.05 | 0.82(0.42%) | 45876 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 9.52 | -0.01(-0.10%) | 53942 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 10.95 | -0.11(-0.99%) | 70014 |
General Electric Co | GE | 10.41 | -0.04(-0.38%) | 106580 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 41.63 | 1.29(3.20%) | 535513 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 220.7 | 0.57(0.26%) | 3035 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,219.50 | 2.82(0.23%) | 6181 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 50.27 | -0.28(-0.55%) | 10987 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 148.87 | 0.63(0.43%) | 8983 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 130.55 | 0.33(0.25%) | 667 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 116.1 | 0.10(0.09%) | 3995 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 210.32 | -0.40(-0.19%) | 760 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 83.2 | 0.21(0.25%) | 1737 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 137.2 | 0.93(0.68%) | 136957 |
Nike | NKE | 85.89 | -0.14(-0.16%) | 1003 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 38.65 | 0.17(0.44%) | 27874 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 118.45 | 0.41(0.35%) | 11820 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 94.82 | 0.13(0.14%) | 5239 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 242.41 | 0.80(0.33%) | 20146 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 52.83 | 0.20(0.38%) | 7989 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 42.65 | 0.34(0.80%) | 155899 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 250 | 0.99(0.40%) | 1421 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 55.7 | 0.43(0.78%) | 90361 |
Visa | V | 178.99 | 0.99(0.56%) | 12567 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 110.5 | 0.12(0.11%) | 3260 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 143.45 | 0.44(0.31%) | 7842 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 38.85 | -0.37(-0.94%) | 1550 |
Advanced Micro (AMD) initiated with a Hold at The Benchmark Company
IBM (IBM) resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley; target $170
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, but the trend in claims
remained consistent with strong labor market conditions.
According to
the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 8,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended July 27
Economists had
expected 212,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the
prior week were revised upwardly to 207,000 from the initial estimate of 206,000.
Meanwhile, the
four-week moving average of claims decreased by 1,750 to 211,500 last week.
General Motors (GM) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.64 per share (versus $1.81 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.45.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $36.060 bln (-1.9% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $36.025 bln.
GM rose to $41.41 (+2.65%) in pre-market trading.
Sonia Meskin, the U.S. economist at Standard Chartered, pnotes that the July FOMC meeting was in line with their expectations as the fed funds target rate (FFTR) was cut 25bps, taking it to 2.25%.
Verizon (VZ) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.23 per share (versus $1.20 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.23.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $32.071 bln (-0.4% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $32.420 bln.
VZ rose to $55.95 (+1.23%) in pre-market trading.
DuPont (DD) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.97 per share (versus $1.37 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.82.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.468 bln (-6.6% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.631 bln.
The company issued in-line guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of $3.75-3.85 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.80.
DD rose to $73.48 (+1.83%) in pre-market trading.
Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. ISM manufacturing index to stay unchanged at 51.7 (vs. mkt est. of 52.0).
The Bank of
England (BoE) announced its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously
to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75 percent at its latest meeting.
The MPC also
voted unanimously to maintain the corporate bond purchases at £10 billion and
UK government bond purchases at £435 billion.
In its
statement, the BoE says:
Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the FOMC cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 2.00-2.25%, as widely expected.
Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the prior month at 48.0 in July (versus market est. of 47.6).
Aline Schuiling, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the first estimate of Eurozone’s Q2 GDP growth was in line with the consensus forecast, at 0.2% qoq.
Stock markets in the U.S. will go “haywire” if President Donald Trump fails to win a second term in the White House, prominent investor Mark Mobius predicted.
Mobius said U.S. markets have continued to climb higher partly because of Trump’s policies. The president made several moves that many considered pro-business since he took office in 2017, such as slashing corporate tax rates.
The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone up by more than 30% since the beginning of 2017, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen by around 45%. Such optimism in the stock markets could be disrupted if Trump loses in next year’s presidential race, the investor said.
“I think the markets then will go haywire because they’ve been depending on Trump policies to keep on pushing the market up and also higher growth rate in the U.S.,” Mobius told.
He added that for now, “it doesn’t look likely” that Trump will lose. However, sentiment in the media appeared to be “overwhelmingly” against the president — and that could continue to build until the election next year, he explained. “That’s why I’m a little concerned about this,” he said.
Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Bank of England’s MPC will be making their latest policy decision today, and will also have the release of the Bank’s quarterly inflation report and a press conference from Governor Carney.
“Our UK economists wrote that although they expect the MPC will vote to keep Bank Rate on hold, they think that they will drop their tightening bias, “with the MPC becoming more sensitive to a deteriorating economic outlook vis-à-vis the ongoing trade wars and an increasing risk of a no deal Brexit.” Since the MPC’s last meeting of course, sterling has weakened noticeably, although yesterday it was the best-performing G10 currency versus the dollar, trading flat despite broad strength for the greenback.”
Chinese and U.S. working teams will be in intensive contact this month to prepare “good groundwork” for the next round of face-to-face trade talks in September, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.
U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended a brief round of talks in Shanghai on Wednesday, with little sign of progress apart from an agreement to meet again next month. It was their first in-person talks since presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade ceasefire at a G20 summit in June.
“With regards to this (week’s) round of negotiations, both sides communicated over two topics: One is how we view the past - we mainly discussed why negotiations broke down and clarified our views on some economic and trade issues,” commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters at a regular briefing.
“The other one is how we view the future to ascertain the principles and methodology of negotiations, as well as relevant timetables.”
China and the United States can find a solution to trade issues if both sides’ concerns are taken into consideration, Gao said, reiterating past comments from Beijing.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that GBP/USD pair has again sold off towards 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2016 low.
“Rebounds from here are currently indicated to be likely to struggle around 1.2350. The 1.2108/00 level guards the 1.1988 January 2017 low and the 1.1491 3rd October low (according to CQG). It stays negative while contained by 2 month downtrend at 1.2482 today. Above the downtrend this would introduce scope to the 55 day ma at 1.2588 and the June high at 1.2784. Only a rise above the June high at 1.2784 would indicate that a bottom is being formed (not favoured).”
According to the report from IHS Markit, the downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continued at the start of the third quarter. Production and new orders shrank as manufacturers faced the ongoing headwinds of political uncertainty, a global economic slowdown and the unwinding of stocks built prior to the original Brexit date.
At 48.0 in July, unchanged from June, the headline seasonally adjusted PMI stayed below the neutral 50.0 mark for the third straight month. The last time that the PMI was below its current level was almost six-and-a-half years ago (February 2013).
Manufacturing production fell to the greatest extent in seven years, as companies scaled back output in response to a further solid decrease in new order intakes. Demand was weaker from domestic and overseas markets. Manufacturers linked lower order intakes and production to ongoing uncertainties (political, global trade tensions and Brexit) and slower world economic growth. Employment decreased for the fourth month in a row, with the pace of decline accelerating to one of the highest over the past six-and-a half years.
Manufacturers maintained a positive outlook in July. Over 46% expect output to be higher in one year's time, compared to less than 10% forecasting contraction.
According to the report from IHS Markit, the euro area’s manufacturing sector continued to contract during July, and at an accelerated rate.
The latest Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted below the 50.0 no change mark that separates growth from contraction for a sixth successive month and, at 46.5, pointed to the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions since December 2012. The index was down from 47.6 in June, though slightly higher than the earlier July flash reading of 46.4.
The downturn in the overall manufacturing economy was driven in the main by a sharp fall in new orders. Latest data showed that the decline was the second sharpest recorded by the survey in just over six years (surpassed only by a contraction in March). Export trade deteriorated to the greatest degree since November 2011. A deteriorating trend in order books led to a retrenchment in both production and purchasing activity amongst euro area manufacturers. Output was cut to the greatest degree since April 2013, whilst the reduction in purchasing activity was the sharpest seen since the end of 2012.
July’s survey data indicated a sharp fall in sentiment to its lowest level since the end of 2012. Germany recorded by far the most pessimistic outlook for production over the next 12 months.
According to Rabobank analysts, for the UK economy, politics remain in focus with the UK by-election, where if the Tory candidate loses and he is expected to, the BoJo government loses its working majority.
“That further complicates the parliamentary arithmetic, of course, and backs the view the UK will have a general election soon. However, it’s equally clear that vote would be held on a ‘Leave any which way’ policy from the Tories and the Brexit Party, perhaps in coalition, against a ‘Remain regardless’ stance from the Lib-Dems and Labour(?) and the Greens and all of the new mini-parties that have sprung up like mushrooms on the decaying corpse of British-politics-as-usual. Yet Brexit and Tory voters strongly overlap: do Labour and Lib-Dem voters quite as much, given the latter were so recently in a Tory coalition? Like I said, watch GBP as well as the BOE.”
The underlying message by the Federal Reserve — after it cut interest rates on Wednesday — may not be as hawkish as many investors had interpreted it to be, according to the chief economist of Institute of International Finance.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested policymakers were not embarking on a new cycle of rate cutting. The 25 basis points cut on Wednesday marked the central bank’s first policy easing in more than a decade.
But Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist of IIF, suggested that the central bank may not be done with cutting rates.
“I think the midcycle adjustment language that Chairman Powell used is important, ” Brooks pointed out. “The midcycle adjustments that we saw in ’95 and ’98 were 75 basis points each — so three cuts each. And I think that is actually pretty close to what the market was pricing going into this meeting.”
So, the central bank’s move and Powell’s comments on Wednesday aren’t “much of a hawkish surprise at all,” Brooks told. “My basic point here is: I think markets here need to chill a little bit and the underlying theme is more dovish than ... markets perceived.”
Brooks is not the only economist suggesting that the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates even more. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Wednesday note that they “see an 80% cumulative probability of another cut at some point this year.”
Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s Manufacturing PMI to slide further below the 50-mark in July to 47.0 (mkt 47.6).
“Given the poor outcomes for other European flash PMIs for the month and the growing talk of a hard Brexit, it's difficult to see UK manufacturing activity improving. After the data, we have the next Bank of England decision coming up at midday. Going into the decision, we think that given the change of tone from the Fed and the ECB recently, markets are eager to price in further easing from the BoE as well. Although our base case sees the MPC retaining the reference to gradual and limited rate hikes, we think that markets are likely to look right through any mention of rate hikes as entirely implausible, and just grasp onto any dovish language instead. And given the worsening global backdrop and the increasing concerns around a no-deal Brexit, there should be plenty of dovish language to satisfy markets.”
China's central bank kept its main policy rates on hold on Thursday, opting not to follow rate cut by the U.S. Fed as policymakers wait to see if earlier support measures start to stabilise the economy.
But market watchers say continued support is still needed, and expect more modest forms of policy easing from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in coming months if pressure on the economy persists.
Amid mounting worries about risks to global growth, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, as expected. Though China's central bank does not always follow the Fed's moves in lockstep, some analysts had thought a token PBOC cut, likely in one of its short-term rates, was a possibility. However, no move was apparent by midday on Thursday. The PBOC refrained from daily open market operations (OMOs) early in the session, saying banking system liquidity was "reasonably ample".
"The PBOC skipped OMOs and hence there was no rate adjustment. The market may need to wait until mid-August when the next tranche of medium term lending facility (MLF) matures to see if there is any action. Arguably they can adjust policy parameters anytime, and are not constrained by any meeting schedule, but we see no pressure on OMO rates," said Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac.
With household debt climbing and property prices on the rise, policymakers are very cautious about the risks of further loosening, said Zhu Chaoping, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Shanghai.
But analysts still expect more measured support from the PBOC in the form of additional liquidity injections. Further cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) are seen in both this quarter and next to direct funding to parts of the economy that need it most. The PBOC has already cut RRR six times since early 2018.
A system-wide "universal" RRR cut, or a policy rate cut, is still possible by the end of the year, Zhu added.
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank could widen the band in which it allows bond yields to fluctuate around its 0% target, if long-term interest rates make big swings.
"It's true we could be more careful in assessing the merits and demerits of additional action than other central banks," Amamiya told a news conference after meeting with business leaders.
"But just because we've eased so much already does not mean any further steps would be limited or small." Amamiya added.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that EUR/USD pair has broken below 1.1110/06, the April and May lows and in doing so has introduced scope to the 1.0974 2018-2019 support line, which in turn guards the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement.
“The market will stay directly offered below 1.1176/81 (mid June low and March low) and only a close above here would signal recovery to the 55 day ma at 1.1235 and the highs from last week at 1.1285. But while capped here it will remain on the defensive. The market will need to regain the 55 week ma at 1.1372 to generate upside interest.”
ING Research discusses its reaction to FOMC policy statement.
"As widely expected, the Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 2.00-2.25% and left the door open to more easing. It has also decided to conclude its balance sheet run down in August - two months earlier than previously announced. Today’s decision to cut interest rates, for the first time since December 2008, was not unanimous though with Esther George and Eric Rosengren preferring to see policy left unchanged," ING notes. We characterise today’s move as a precautionary, pre-emptive policy change to ensure that the US economic expansion – already the longest since the National Bureau for Economic Research’s database began in 1854 – continues for a good while longer. However, the Fed never cuts rates just once and we doubt it will this cycle," ING adds.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1212 (1599)
$1.1177 (347)
$1.1153 (306)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1052
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1038 (2092)
$1.0994 (1240)
$1.0947 (320)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 74012 contracts (according to data from July, 31) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4555);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2406 (108)
$1.2360 (226)
$1.2319 (400)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2130
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2075 (1060)
$1.2035 (234)
$1.1991 (213)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16520 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2051);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 22073 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2400);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.34 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 31
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 64.12 | -1.02 |
WTI | 57.84 | -0.74 |
Silver | 16.24 | -1.81 |
Gold | 1412.089 | -1.29 |
Palladium | 1516.89 | 0.26 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -187.78 | 21521.53 | -0.86 |
Hang Seng | -368.75 | 27777.75 | -1.31 |
KOSPI | -14.13 | 2024.55 | -0.69 |
ASX 200 | -32.5 | 6812.6 | -0.47 |
FTSE 100 | -59.99 | 7586.78 | -0.78 |
DAX | 41.8 | 12189.04 | 0.34 |
Dow Jones | -333.75 | 26864.27 | -1.23 |
S&P 500 | -32.8 | 2980.38 | -1.09 |
NASDAQ Composite | -98.19 | 8175.42 | -1.19 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.68433 | -0.44 |
EURJPY | 120.413 | -0.58 |
EURUSD | 1.1069 | -0.76 |
GBPJPY | 132.163 | 0.18 |
GBPUSD | 1.21509 | 0 |
NZDUSD | 0.65583 | -0.81 |
USDCAD | 1.31867 | 0.27 |
USDCHF | 0.99381 | 0.37 |
USDJPY | 108.764 | 0.17 |
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