Tin tức thì trường

FXStreet notes that since the middle of June EUR/NOK has been trading mostly in a 10.70 to 10.90 range but economists at Rabobank expect the pair to lower towards the 10.50 level due to better than expected economic data releases and upward revisions from policymakers about the extent of the downturn. 

“In May retail sales unexpectedly bounced by 2.8% m/m and house prices increased. Perhaps most surprising of all, a recent Opinion poll suggests that consumer confidence is now higher than the pre-virus period.” 

“Norges Bank expects GDP to contract by -3.5% this year compared with an estimate of -5.2% in May. Additionally, the central bank is looking for an expansion in GDP next year of 3.7% compared with a previous forecast of 3.0%. In tune with these revisions, the Norges Bank has adjusted its guidance around the likely pace of interest rate hikes. Its latest set of forecast includes rates at 0.1% in 2022 and at 0.5% in 2023.  Relative to many other recent central bank statements this is a fairly hawkish view.”

“We see scope for EUR/NOK to edge back to 10.50 on a three-month view.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 7.195 million barrels in the week ended June 26. Economists had forecast a decrease of 0.950 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 1.199 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.583 million barrels. Distillate stocks decreased by 0.593 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 0.393 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. remained unchanged at 11.000 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.6 million barrels per day from the previous week.

The Commerce Department announced on Wednesday that construction spending fell 2.1 percent m-o-m in May after a revised 3.5 percent m-o-m drop in April (originally a 2.9 percent m-o-m decrease).

Economists had forecast construction spending increasing 1.0 percent m-o-m in May.

According to the report, spending on private construction fell 3.3 percent m-o-m, while investment in public construction rose 1.2 percent m-o-m. 

A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Wednesday the U.S. manufacturing sector’s activity expanded in June.

The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 52.6 percent last month, up 9.5 percentage points from the May reading of 43.1 percent. The reading pointed to the biggest expansion in factory activity since April 2019.

Economists' had forecast the indicator to increase to 49.5 percent.

A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.

According to the report, the New Orders Index stood at 56.4 percent, an advance of 24.6 percentage points from the May reading, while the Production Index registered 57.3 percent, up 24.1 percentage points compared to the May reading, the Backlog of Orders Index posted 45.3 percent, an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared to the May reading, and the Employment Index came in at 42.1 percent, an increase of 10 percentage points from the May reading. Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.9 percent, down 11.1 percentage points from the May figure.

Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted that June signified manufacturing entering an expected expansion cycle after the disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. “As predicted, the growth cycle has returned after three straight months of COVID-19 disruptions. Demand, consumption and inputs are reaching parity and are positioned for a demand-driven expansion cycle as we enter the second half of the year. Among the six biggest industry sectors, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products remains the best-performing industry sector, and Computer & Electronic Products, and Chemical Products returned to respectable growth. Transportation Equipment and Fabricated Metal Products continue to contract, but at much softer levels,” said Fiore. He also added that the past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for June (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.

The latest report by IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49.8 in June, up from May’s reading of 39.8 and slightly higher than the earlier released “flash” reading of 49.6. The reading signaled only a fractional deterioration in U.S. manufacturing conditions as goods producers and their customers began to reopen amid looser restrictions following the outbreak of COVID-19.

Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 49.6.

According to the report, the downward trend in production eased markedly in June as new orders stabilized amid reports of relative improvement in demand conditions. At the same time, employment across the manufacturing sector dropped for the fourth month running in June. However, the overall loss of jobs was considerably weaker than those seen in the prior two months. Optimism about the year ahead meanwhile revived considerably amid hopes of a sustained pick-up in client demand and an end to the pandemic.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit noted: “While the PMI currently points to a strong v-shaped recovery, concerns have risen that momentum could be lost if rising numbers of virus infections lead to renewed restrictions and cause demand to weaken again.”

• Says data should be mostly positive for long time but a good bounce in economy does not reveal profile of recovery
• We will need up to one year to know how eurozone will recover
• Expects two steps forward, one step back recovery with periodic interruptions
• Reports of further COVID-19 infections not helping recovery in confidence, investments
• Current corporate ratings look reasonable, not obvious there should be a lot more downgrades
• Absolutely not into yield targeting; ECB doesn't take a view on any particular level of spread

U.S. stock-index futures edged up on Wednesday as coronavirus vaccine news and encouraging ADP employment report outweighed concerns that the latest surge in coronavirus infections in the U.S. could trigger fresh lockdowns and derail a nascent economic recovery.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Deere (DE) resumed with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; target $186

UnitedHealth (UNH) resumed with an Outperform at SVB Leerink; target $360

Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; target $166

FedEx (FDX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; target raised to $188

The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 2,369,000 jobs in June.

Economists had expected an increase of 3,000,000.

The May number saw a dramatic upward revision to 3,065,000 from the originally reported -2,760,000.

“Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses. In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade and construction industries.”

EUR fell against most major currencies in the European session on Wednesday, as investors weighed upbeat Eurozone data on manufacturing sector activity and the statement by the German Chancellor that EU members are still far apart on the recovery fund.

The latest survey from IHS Markit revealed that Eurozone's manufacturing sector moved towards stabilization in June as Europe’s economies lifted COVID-19 restrictions. According to the report, IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a four-month high of 47.4, up from 39.4 in May and an improvement on the earlier flash reading of 46.9. Nonetheless, the survey suggested the Eurozone's manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory for 17 successive months. 

Germany’s manufacturing sector also contracted in June, albeit at a slower pace (the IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI climbed from May's 36.6 to a three month high of 45.2). Meanwhile, France reported an expansionary reading (the IHS Markit France Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.3 from 40.6 in May).

Improved Eurozone's factory activity data allayed some of the fears over growing global coronavirus infections.

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel stated on Wednesday that EU members are still far apart on the recovery fund and budget. She also added that the EU must be prepared for the possibility that Brexit talks might end in failure. These statements dragged the single currency to the lows for the day.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that the S&P 500 holds above the 200-day average at 3021 and the break above the short-term 13-day exponential average reasserts a near-term upward bias in the broader high-level consolidation range with next resistance awaiting at 3115.

“S&P 500 remains above key support from its 200-day average and the break back above its short-term 13-day average yesterday is seen reinforcing the view the market has settled in a high-level consolidation range.”

“Support is seen at 3085/81 initially, then 3067 and whilst above here the immediate risk is seen higher in the range with next resistance seen at its recent price gap, starting at 3115 and stretching up to 3127/31. This latter area is seen as the barrier to a retest of the highs past two weeks at 3153/56.” 

“Below 3067 can see a move back lower in the range with support seen next at 3050/48. This is seen as the trigger to a retest of the 200-day average, currently seen at 3022.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group still expect USD/CNH to trade within the 7.0400/7.10000 range in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “Our expectation that USD ‘could weaken to 7.0600’ did not materialize as it rebounded from a low of 7.0630. The underlying tone still appears soft and we continue to see chance of USD moving to 7.0600. A dip below this level is not ruled out but for today, 7.0550 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 7.0730 followed by 7.0780.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded within relatively narrow range the last couple of days. For now, there is no change to our latest narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 7.0760). As highlighted, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a broad 7.0400/7.1000 range for now.”

• Activity appears to be coming back faster than we anticipated
• Worryingly, indicators of rising unemployment are already revealing themselves
• There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how many of currently furloughed workers will be able to return to their jobs

• EU needs to be prepared for possibility that they may not be able to reach agreement with UK

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 1.8 percent in the week ended June 26, following an 8.7 percent decline in the previous week.

According to the report, refinance applications decreased 2.2 percent, while applications to purchase a home dropped 1.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged down from 3.30 percent to record low 3.29 percent.

“The weakening in activity is potentially a signal that pent-up demand is starting to wane and that low housing supply is limiting prospective buyers’ options,” noted Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “The average purchase application loan size increased to a record high in our survey - more proof that tight inventory conditions are leading to faster price growth.”

FXStreet notes that AUD/USD held key support at 0.6852 and posted a minor bullish ‘outside day’ to suggest further strength. A break above 0.6977 would see an ascending bull ‘triangle’ complete but first the aussie faces resistance at 0.6917, analysts at Credit Suisse apprise.

“AUD/USD saw a rebound higher from the 21-day exponential average and lower end of the potential ascending bull ‘triangle’ continuation pattern (whose construction is becoming increasingly likely) at 0.6852/44. In addition, the market completed a minor bullish ‘outside day’ to suggest further near-term strength. With this in mind, we keep our view unchanged and look move higher in due course, with resistance seen initially at 0.6917/23.” 

“Above 0.6917/23 is needed to see a break higher towards the upper end of the ‘triangle’ at 0.6975/77, where we would expect to see fresh selling at first. Removal of here on a clear and closing basis would confirm the bullish pattern, see a minor base established and suggest further upside is likely in due course.” 

“Near-term support is seen initially at 0.6883, then back at 0.6852/44, where we would expect a first attempt to hold. Beneath here would see a move back to 0.6777/75, which ideally holds to keep the upside bias intact.”

FedEx (FDX) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $2.53 per share (versus $5.01 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.62 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $17.358 bln (-2.5% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $16.536 bln.

FDX rose to $154.04 (+9.86%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet reports that Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, suggested the RBA is likely to leave the monetary conditions unchanged at the July 7 event.

“The RBA decided to maintain the OCR at 0.25% and the 3-year Australian Government securities (AGS) yield target at 0.25% in June. We do not see further reductions in the OCR. In fact, it is likely the RBA will keep it on hold for an extended period”.

“The focus will thus remain firmly on end-user rates via the yield curve target, as well as ensuring sufficient liquidity in bond markets and the free flow of credit to households and business.”

FXStreet reports that the USD/CAD pair edges lower today, around mid-1.3500s, as the loonie broke yesterday below the potential early June uptrend to reinforce the view of a bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern, which would be confirmed below 1.3492/86, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

“USD/CAD saw the expected collapse, breaking below the potential uptrend from early June and reinforcing the potential for a bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern.” 

“We expect further weakness to unfold, also in line with the existing large bearish ‘descending triangle’ continuation pattern. With this in mind, we see support initially at 1.3552, then 1.3528, ahead of a fall back to the pivotal 200-day average and June low at 1.3492/86. Removal of here in due course would then trigger the pattern to suggest the core bear trend is resuming, with support seen thereafter at 1.3452. 

“Resistance is initially seen at the aforementioned early June potential uptrend at 1.3593, which also ideally caps to keep the immediate downside bias intact. Above here would suggest a deeper correction higher with resistances seen next at 1.3628 and 1.3648.”

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, assessed the latest official PMI figures in the Chinese economy.

“China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose 0.3 point to 50.9 in June… while the non-manufacturing PMI jumped 0.8 point to 54.4 in June – highest reading since November 2019 when it was at the same level. The better-than-expected PMI readings for both the manufacturing and services sectors point to a stronger recovery in China’s economy in June as the country keeps its second wave COVID19 in check and global demand picks up with more economies exiting their lockdowns.”

“Key sub-indexes within the manufacturing PMI improved in June, including production (53.9 vs. 53.2 in May), new orders (51.4 vs. 50.9 in May) and new export orders (42.6 vs. 35.3 in May). The huge rebound in new export orders sub-index increase confidence that the external demand is picking up.”

“Despite the improvement in June PMIs, pockets of weakness in employment as well as the sluggish performance of small-sized enterprises still call for sustained government support measures including the interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts as well as financing support such as the re-lending facilities.”

Reuters reports that the European Central Bank is lowering the bar for bank mergers in the euro zone, hoping to encourage an elusive wave of consolidation in a sector plagued by low profits and unresolved issues inherited from the last financial crisis.

In a guide published on Wednesday, the ECB clarified that merged entities won’t necessarily be asked for extra capital and will be allowed to use their own accounting models as well as any “badwill” - a paper profit that occurs when an asset is bought below its book value.

These were some of the concerns flagged by bankers in recent years when evaluating mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the euro zone.

The ECB stressed, however, that it was not its job to orchestrate deals and these needed to be driven by the market.

“Our prudential mandate is not to assess whether consolidation efforts are beneficial,” ECB supervisor Édouard Fernandez-Bollo said in a blog post presenting the guide.

“But well-designed and well-executed consolidation can help address the overcapacity and low profitability problems that have been damaging the European banking sector since the last financial crisis,” he added.

The guide will now be open for consultation until Oct 1.

FXStreet reports that gold has resumed its core bull trend reinforced by the expected break lower by 10yr US Real Yields as the yellow metal trades at near $1790, gaining +0.42% on a day. Strategists at Credit Suisse mark resistance at $1796/1803.

“Gold has seen its expected break higher from its range above $1765 to confirm a resumption of its core bull trend with resistance seen at $1796/1803 next.” 

“Support at $1720 now ideally holds to keep the immediate risk higher. Only back below $1671 though would set a near-term top.”

“10yr US Real Yields have seen their expected break lower from their sideways range, with key resistance seen at -.85%, then -1.01%, which reinforces the break higher and resumption of the core bull trend in gold.”

“Big picture, we continue to eventually look for new highs above $1921, with resistance then seen next at $2000, then $2075/80.”

According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, the UK manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilising in June, following the recent steep downturn caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Output edged back into growth territory as factories restarted, lockdown restrictions were loosened and staff returned to work.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS PMI rose to 50.1 in June, up from 40.7 in May and unchanged from the flash estimate. Although the 9.4 point month-on-month rise in the PMI beat May's record (8.1), the reading was only slightly above the neutral 50.0 mark, indicating a stabilisation (not marked improvement) in operating conditions. Survey data were collected between 12-25 June. 

Manufacturing production rose slightly for the first time in four months during June, as factories restarted, clients reopened and lockdown restrictions were eased. The intermediate goods sector saw the steepest growth, while consumer goods producers saw only a mild expansion. In contrast, investment goods output fell again, albeit at a vastly reduced pace.

Business sentiment rose to a 21-month high in June. Over 63% of manufacturers forecast that output would rise over the coming year. Positive sentiment was linked to clients reopening, an expected further loosening of COVID-19 restrictions and hopes that markets would revive at home and overseas to help recover growth lost during the pandemic.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “June completed a marked turnaround in momentum in UK manufacturing, as the sector switched from April's record contraction back to stabilisation in the space of two months. Output edged higher and domestic demand firmed as lockdown restrictions loosened, factories restarted and staff returned to work. Business optimism also recovered to a 21-month high. The planned loosening in COVID 19 restrictions on the 4th July should aid further gains in coming months. Although the trend in new export business remains weak, that should also strengthen as global lockdowns and transport constraints ease further.”

According to the report from IHS Markit, in line with the continued easing of global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions on economic activity, the severe downturn in the eurozone manufacturing economy continued to ease in June. 

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI strengthened to a four-month high of 47.4, up from 39.4 in May and an improvement on the earlier flash reading. Posting an increase of eight points since May, the PMI recovered further from April’s nadir. Nonetheless, the headline index has now recorded below 50.0 for 17 successive months and remains consistent with the sector facing challenging operating conditions.

There was some divergence in trends, however, by market group. Both intermediate and investment goods continued to contract, but there was a return to growth amongst consumers goods producers. 

Manufacturing output declined only modestly in June and to a much lesser degree when compared to the considerable falls seen in recent months. However, production continues to be undermined by ongoing weakness in new order books: June’s survey again showed a notable reduction in total new orders (albeit at the weakest pace for four months). New export sales were also down, declining for a twenty first month and at a noticeable pace.

Latest data indicated that firms continued to operate well below capacity during June, with backlogs of work outstanding falling for a twenty-second successive month – and again at a severe rate (despite easing since May).

Purchasing activity also remained depressed in June, with manufacturers choosing to reduce their buying of inputs for a nineteenth successive month. Firms signalled a preference for wherever possible to utilise existing stocks as they battled to free up working capital. Inventories of both inputs and stocks of finished goods subsequently declined during June.

Finally, confidence about production in the year ahead returned to positive territory during June, and to its highest level in four months. Positive sentiment was linked by manufacturers to hopes that the further easing of lockdown measures will support a return to sales and demand growth in the coming year.

FXStreet reports that USD/CNY trades at 7.068, showing no changes on a day, and the key support at 7.0519/0459 is still pressured. The Credit Suisse analyst team expects a close below the mentioned support to unfold a deeper move lower which could send the pair below the 7.00 level.

“USD/CNY remains rangebound near term as the market continues to pressure against the key support at 7.0519/0459 – the late April and current June lows, 38.2% retracement of the rally from January and 200-day average.” 

“With daily RSI momentum maintaining a top and weekly MACD momentum also turning lower, the 7.0519/0459 support is seen at risk and a closing break would see a price top established to warn of a more important move lower, with support then seen next at 7.0298, ahead of 7.0091 and then the medium-term uptrend from the 2018 low and 61.8% retracement at 6.9868/9693.”

“Resistance at 7.0982 needs to cap to keep the immediate risk lower.”

The US dollar was little changed against the major currencies, despite an increase in demand for safe-haven currencies due to a continued increase in new cases of coronavirus. In the United States, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased by 46% in the week ending June 28 from the previous seven days, with 21 states reporting positive test rates above the level marked as alarming by the world Health Organization. Every day, the number of new COVID-19 diseases in the US has again stepped over the threshold of 40 thousand. Moreover, a well-known epidemiologist, Mr. Fauci, suggested in his statement that the figure may go above 100 thousand people a day, adding that the state authorities do not control the situation. Some States continue to re-impose restrictions or stop exiting quarantines (Texas reported nearly 7,000 cases and an increase in deaths).

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal reserve, warned that without a fight against the disease, the economy will not return to the levels where it was before the quarantine. His colleague John Williams of the new York Fed said there are signs that states with outbreaks are seeing a slow recovery. World Health Organization President Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, although many countries have made some progress.

The Chinese yuan was supported by strong statistical data. According to statistics from Caixin, China's manufacturing sector continued to expand at a rapid pace in June. Thus, the manufacturing PMI index rose in June to 51.2, while most economists predicted a slowdown to 50.5. In May, the PMI index was 50.7.

CNBC reports that Asia’s economy is expected to shrink this year “for the first time in living memory,” the International Monetary Fund said, warning that the region could take several years to recover.  

The fund said that Asia’s economy will likely contract by 1.6% this year — a downgrade from its previous forecast of no growth in April.

The region is still in a better shape compared to other parts of the world, but a weaker global economy has made it difficult for Asia to grow, Changyong Rhee, director of the Asia and Pacific department at IMF, told CNBC on Wednesday.

He said “Asia cannot be an exception” when the whole world is suffering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The IMF last month slashed its forecasts for the global economy. It projects the world economy could shrink by 4.9% this year before rebounding to grow by 5.4% next year.

Asia was the first region to be hit by the coronavirus disease — or Covid-19 — which first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan. After the virus spread globally, many governments imposed measures that restrict people’s interactions and movements, which severely reduced economic activity.

Rhee said Asia’s economy is expected to rebound strongly to register a 6.6% growth next year. But the level of economic activity in the region would still be lower than what IMF had projected before the pandemic, he added.   

“What we are worried about Asia is actually the recovery from 2020,” said Rhee.

He explained that countries in the region have a “heavy dependence” on trade, tourism and remittances — segments of the global economy that were hit hard by the pandemic.

“Even if we develop new medical solutions, the recovery of ... contact-intensive sectors will be slow, tourism for example. So because of that, I think Asia’s recovery will be protracted,” he said.

And if there is a second wave of infections in the region, many governments may not have the firepower to support their economies like they did during the first wave, Rhee added.

Reuters reports that the European Central Bank is ready to adapt its policy to the needs of the European Union after the coronavirus pandemic, but reforms by single countries will be more important than monetary policy, the bank's Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday.

"The main antidote will not be monetary policy - which we will conduct, knowing that we are not omnipotent - but rather reforms and budgetary policy of single governments," de Guindos told Italian daily La Stampa in an interview.

He added that although the ECB had acted "rapidly and effectively", the negative impact of the epidemic on Europe would have been more contained had the bloc been more integrated at the economic and monetary level.

FXStreet reports that USD/JPY looks firmer and could now set sails to the 108.40 region in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

24-hour view: “Our view yesterday was that ‘barring a move below 107.30, USD could edge above 108.00’. While USD held above 107.30 (low of 107.51), it did not quite edge above 108.00 (overnight high of 107.98). The firm closing in NY (107.92) has resulted in further improvement in momentum and USD could strengthen from here. That said, 108.40 is likely out of reach for today. Support is at 107.65 followed by 107.30.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD moved above the top of our expected 106.40/107.80 range yesterday (high of 107.87). Upward momentum is beginning to improve and USD could strengthen towards 108.40. As the build-up in momentum is still in its nascent stage, it is too early to expect a sustained move towards 108.40. On the downside, a breach of 107.00 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

According to provisional data from Destatis, turnover in retail trade in May 2020 was in real terms 3.8% and in nominal terms 4.6% higher than in May 2019. The number of days open for sale was 24 in May 2020 and 25 in May 2019.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, the May 2020 turnover was in real terms 13.9% and in nominal terms 13.4% higher than in April 2020. The retail sector was thus able to compensate for the Corona-related decline in sales in the previous months. At the same time, this was the strongest increase in sales compared to the previous month since the start of the time series in 1994. the reasons for this are the business closures until mid-April 2020 and the subsequent easing. In April, sales were down 6.5% in real terms and 6.2% in nominal terms compared to the previous month.

Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco products increased by 4.9% in real terms and 8.4% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with May 2019, with sales at supermarkets and hypermarkets up 6.4% in real terms and 9.9% in nominal terms on the same month of the previous year. In contrast, the retail trade of food products recorded a reduction of 6.6% in real terms and 3.0% in nominal terms.

In the non-food retail sector, sales increased by 3.5% in real terms and 3.3% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared to the same month of the previous year. The Internet and mail order business achieved the largest increase in sales year - on-year with 28.7% in real terms and 28.8% in nominal terms. Rates of change of this magnitude are unusual even in this very dynamic industry and are thus largely due to a special impact of the corona pandemic. Trade in furnishings, household appliances and building materials also increased significantly, with a real increase of 8.6 %. On the other hand, trade in textiles, clothing, shoes and leather goods and retail trade in goods of various kinds (e.g. department stores and department stores) are not yet back on the previous year's level, with real -22.6% and -8.3% respectively compared to the same month of the previous year.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1310 (2060)

$1.1278 (1890)

$1.1262 (1183)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1222

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1192 (910)

$1.1148 (1478)

$1.1099 (2455)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 57640 contracts (according to data from June, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (2455);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2601 (706)

$1.2506 (556)

$1.2465 (859)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2362

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2292 (925)

$1.2246 (1295)

$1.2198 (878)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 16327 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1689);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 19192 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1473);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.