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08.07.2020
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, July 9, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 China PPI y/y June -3.7% -3.2%
01:30 China CPI y/y June 2.4% 2.5%
06:00 Germany Current Account May 7.7  
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y June -52.8%  
06:00 Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln May 3.5  
08:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings    
12:15 Canada Housing Starts June 193.5 198
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims June 19290 18950
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 1427 1375
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories May 0.2% -1.2%
16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
19:01
U.S.: Consumer Credit , May -18.2 (forecast -15.5)
15:08
European Council president Michel: Still much work needed for EU recovery fund deal - Reuters

  • We need to find a workable solution quickly
  • Says he is doing all he can to secure agreement
  • We haven’t yet finished our negotiations and we still have a lot of work to do
  • We can conclude that some member states want to cooperate more than others

14:35
EIA’s report reveals unexpected surge in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories climbed by 5.654 million barrels in the week ended July 3. Economists had forecast a decrease of 3.400 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 4.839 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 0.002 million barrels. Distillate stocks increased by 3.136 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 0.075 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. remained unchanged at 11.000 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous week.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, July 5.654 M (forecast -3.114)
13:45
White House economic advisor Kudlow says it will be big mistake if economy shut down again - CNBC

  • Doesn't think administration is underplaying threat the virus poses to public
  • Says, in general, hospitalization capacity is plentiful
  • Huge jump in cases, looks like virus migrated south and then west
  • Fatality rate continues to fall
  • Every piece of data shows a V-shaped recovery
  • Says another economic shutdown in order to slow the spread of coronavirus would do more harm than good

12:52
USD/CAD to confirm a bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern below 1.3501/3486 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that USD/CAD is retracing from the 1.3625 as expected by analysts at Credit Suisse. Below 1.3501/3486, the loonie would confirm a bear wedge. 

“USD/CAD has seen a strong rebound from the 50% retracement of the correction higher from June at 1.3516, however, we look for 1.3624/28 to ideally cap the market, although we do not rule out a move to the lower end of the potential bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern at 1.3686.” 

“Post the correction, we look for a move back lower, in line with our bias that the recent price action looks like a potential bear ‘wedge’ continuation pattern and we thus expect further weakness to unfold, also in line with the existing large bearish ‘descending triangle’ continuation pattern.” 

“Below 1.3516, we see support at the pivotal 200-day average and June low at 1.3501/3486, where we would expect a first attempt to hold. Removal of here in due course would then trigger the pattern to suggest the core bear trend is resuming, with support seen thereafter at 1.3469.”

12:43
Germany's chancellor Merkel: Progress in UK talks limited
  • We should prepare for possibility of no deal
  • We should continue open dialogue with China despite political differences
  • Says she supports recovery fund
12:41
NZD/USD to retest June high at 0.6984 on a break of 0.6562 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse apprise that NZD/USD maintains its break above the pivotal 2014 downtrend at 0.6540 but has stalled at the 0.6584 high. On the flip side, near-term support moves to 0.6520/01.

“NZD/USD was able to maintain its breakout from the crucial 2014 downtrend at 0.6540, although the market has moved into a near-term consolidation phase. While this phase should be allowed to extend further in the short-term, with a bullish ‘outside day’ still in place, a break above the long term downtrend confirmed and MACD momentum turning outright positive again, we remain biased to the upside and look for further strength in due course.” 

“We see resistance initially at 0.6562, above which would suggest a renewed test of the June high at 0.6584. A clear break above here would reinforce thoughts of a broader change in trend to the upside, with 0.6665 the next resistance of note.” 

“Support is initially seen at 0.6538/20, ahead of 0.6513/01, where we would expect to see a first attempt to hold. Beneath here though would mark an important failure at 0.6584 to see a move back to 0.6441/36, removal of which should see a fall back to 0.6385/77, where we would expect the market to find a floor.”

12:16
AUD/USD to mark an important range breakout above 0.6977 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that according to analysts at Credit Suisse, AUD/USD would complete an ascending bull ‘triangle’ continuation pattern with a close above 0.6977 whilst support at 0.6872 ideally holds.

“Although a near-term consolidation phase or even a minor correction should be allowed for at this point, we look for another test and eventual break above the 0.6977 high in due course, reinforced by the fact that MACD is close to crossing above MACDA and turning outright bullish again. This would then see an ascending bull ‘triangle’ continuation pattern complete and suggest that further upside is likely. Resistance is seen thereafter at the more important 0.7032/63 highs.” 

“Support is seen initially at 0.6933, then 0.6922/17, ahead of 0.6902, where we would expect to see a first attempt to hold. Beneath here can see a move back to the lower end of the ‘triangle’ at 0.6872, which ideally holds.”


12:13
UK's finance minister Sunak: Government to invest GBP1 billion in work and pensions department to support the unemployed

  • UK to temporarily cut stamp duty tax on home purchases up to GBP500,000 and the scheme will run till March 31, 2021
  • Confirms GBP2 billion green homes grant
  • VAT on hospitality and tourism to be cut from 20% to 5% for the next 6 months
  • In August, we will give everyone eating out discount; meals will be cheaper from Monday to Wednesdays
  • Customers can enjoy up to GBP10 off meals and non-alcoholic drinks per person in eligible cafes, pubs and restaurants.
  • Economic measures announced total GBP30 billion


11:48
UK's finance minister Sunak: Job losses are the most urgent challenge we face
  • We will do all we can to give everyone job opportunities
  • Our plan will protect and create jobs
  • Furlough program cannot, should not go on forever
  • Furlough program will wind down flexibly, gradually into October
  • Will pay GBP1,000 bonus per employee that returns from furlough through to January
  • Announces "kickstart scheme", GBP2 billion initially to be made available for this
  • The scheme will pay firms to hire young people
11:45
European session review: USD little changed as investors weigh hopes for quick economic recovery against risk of COVID-19 resurgence

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)June3.4%3.4%3.2%

USD traded little changed against its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday as investors weighed hopes for a quick economic recovery against worries about a resurgence of the coronavirus cases and the return of lockdowns in some countries.

The U.S. currency rose marginally against GBP, NZD and AUD, but edged down against EUR, JPY, CHF and  CAD. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, inched up 0.04% to 96.92.

According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the total number of confirmed global cases of the COVID-19 rose to 11,850,886, with the U.S. recording 2,996,098 coronavirus cases, the most in the world. Growing coronavirus infections triggered a reintroduction of regional lockdown measures in some countries, sparking concerns about the pace of economic recovery.

In addition, several Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the recent surge in the U.S. COVID-19 cases. Atlanta Fed president Ralph Bostic said on Tuesday that "business leaders are getting worried and consumers are getting worried" with respect to the coronavirus infections in the U.S. "There is a real sense this might go on longer than we have planned for," he added. Meanwhile, the Fed's vice chairman Richard Clarida told CNN International that the fate of the economy is tied to what happens with the coronavirus pandemic and that evidence of an economic rebound in May and June was “very welcome.” He also noted that "there's more that we can do, there's more that we will do" in terms of monetary accommodation if the economic recovery were to stall in the coming weeks.

11:24
S&P 500: Risks a 10% drop to 2,900 by end-2020 - Citibank

FXStreet reports that Citibank’s Chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich and his team bumped their price target for the S&P 500 index to 2,900 from the previous estimate of 2,700 this year. The upward revision implies a 10% drop in the US benchmark from the current levels of 3,150.

“Barring a big shock, it is improbable to think of a trading range for the S&P 500 in the 2,500-3,000 area, but more likely in the 2,700-3,200 vicinity as the monetary policy will be in place to prevent a 20% or greater decline.”

“We envision volatility for equities as the good news is being priced in and problems are being overlooked.” 

“A second wave of debilitating COVID-19 cases that causes either new shutdowns or slower economic recovery would be challenging, not to mention the U.S. elections, but these are not immediate threats, and investors appear to only have short-term time frames currently.” 

“We add that margin pressures from trade friction and weak year-over-year trends (despite better sequential activity) also matter.”

“Ultimately, earnings have to come back in a very meaningful way, and the market already is anticipating that likelihood over time.”

“As businesses try to absorb fixed overhead costs during the pandemic, a much higher level of activity is required to generate incremental margins.”


11:02
U.S. dollar to continue freely exchanged with the Hong Kong dollar - ANZ

FXStreet notes that Trump’s administration has considered undermining the HKD peg but in the opinion of economists at ANZ Bank the US will not hit Hong Kong due to its interest in the region and the effects of retaliation from China.

“The US is unlikely to stop China from transacting USD. Therefore, the authority could still back the HKD peg system. We wish to emphasise that Hong Kong and China’s central government are prepared for this.” 

“Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan has stated that even if the US takes measures to make Hong Kong dollar settlement inconvenient, the government has a contingency plan. Vigilance is needed, but people do not have to worry too much about it. Hong Kong’s USD settlement will not be affected. Besides its own commercial interests in Hong Kong, the US needs to take into consideration the likelihood of retaliation from China or Hong Kong SAR.” 

“We do not believe the US will penalise Hong Kong even if they are uncomfortable with the National Security Law.”

10:46
GBP/USD: Weakness while no outcome on Brexit deal - OCBC

FXStreet notes that the GBP/USD lifted higher towards 1.2600 on the back of Brexit optimism, before easing when no concrete deal proved to be forthcoming. With there being no outcome on the Brexit talks, analysts at OCBC Bank do not rule out some softness for the cable for now.

“The market bet on a Brexit compromise deal, lifting the cable higher towards 1.2600. Nevertheless, no deal was forthcoming, and the GBP/USD pair subsequently retraced lower.”

“Short-term implied valuations remain pointed south. For now, any upward extension will have to breach 1.2600, before targeting the 200-day MA (1.2696).”

10:30
Oil: Hopes of further inventory withdrawals keep positive mood - ANZ

FXStreet reports that strategists at ANZ Bank apprise that Brent crude oil fell to a low of $42.46/bbl before recovering to above $43/bbl as the rally runs on thin ice amid resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

“Expectations of further inventory withdrawal kept market sentiment positive. Investors are reassessing the fundamental drivers behind the price rally as the demand backdrop looks uncertain and inventories are still burdensome. Oil demand from refiners looks grimmer too, as the margins are yet to pick up, while the recent rally in oil prices and elevated inventories are leaving little room for refiners to ramp up their run rates.” 

“The US Supreme Court ordered that construction of the Keystone XL project cannot begin. This pipeline was designed to carry oil from Alberta Canada to the US. There was another order to temporarily shut down the Dakota Access pipeline within 30 days, which will halt transport of 570kb/d of oil. The impact of this will be muted by weaker refinery run rates, but this can potentially worsen the shale producer conditions.”

“The EIA released its monthly report, revising both production and demand higher for this year. Global demand is likely to contract by 8.15mb/d from a previous estimate of 8.34mb/d.”

10:13
Germany's economy minister Altmaier: We expect to have economic growth again from October-November

  • We are optimistic that in fourth week of July we can pay out first lot of interim aid to SMEs

10:10
ECB's vice president de Guindos: Recent data suggests we can be more optimistic about growth

  • Banks have sufficient capital to face the COVID-19 crisis
  • I think profitability is a bigger issue for banks than that of capital
  • ECB is open to recalibrate programs but so far so good
  • Debate on "proportionality" is now part of the past

09:58
GBP/AUD to slide below 1.78 – Westpac

FXStreet reports that GBP/AUD is trading near daily lows around 1.80 and economists at Westpac expect the pair to slip below the 1.78 mark though some strength is expected in the short-term due to the aussie underperform on equity pullbacks.

“The consensus forecast is for Australian GDP to contract -4% over 2020, versus -8.5% in the UK. Both the RBA and BoE are pursuing very expansionary monetary policy (BoE somewhat looser) and fiscal support is substantial. In Q2, Australia’s fiscal boost was larger than the UK’s but the UK is planning fresh support as Australia looks to trim its spending.” 

“Australia’s C/A position (surplus) is much more supportive than the UK’s (deficit), helping AUD against GBP. Potential wobbles over Brexit negotiations also open up risks for GBP/AUD to slip below our 1.78-1.79 end-Sep baseline.”

“Nearer-term, however, the Aussie looks quite stretched and is pricing in quite an upbeat equity outlook. AUD is likely to keep underperforming on any equity pullbacks, which could extend as far as GBP/AUD 1.8450-1.8520. This would be an attractive area to sell on a multiweek/month outlook.”

09:42
UK job ads show lowest ebb for labour demand came in May, ONS

Reuters reports that demand for labour in Britain may have hit its low point in May before recovering slightly in June, based on a study of online job advertisements, Britain's Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

"Experimental online job adverts data imply the worst impact of the pandemic on labour demand was experienced in May, and some sectors increased hiring in June," the ONS said, after looking at data from online jobs portal Adzuna.

May marked the first easing of the coronavirus virus lockdown restrictions and more businesses reopened in June, which the ONS said contributed to an increase of hiring activities in some sectors.

Demand for retail and catering workers picked up modestly in June after collapsing in April and May, while appetite for healthcare workers - who have been in strong demand throughout - showed little change.

Still, the overall index of job vacancies remained well below its pre-COVID levels as of late June, the ONS data showed.

09:21
RBA expected to stick to the YCC plan – UOB

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assessed the latest RBA event and its prospects for the next meetings.

“The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain its current policy settings in July, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points.”

“The Australian economy saw its first recession in 29 years, given the impact from the bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in 1Q20, from the 0.5% q/q expansion in 4Q19. The annualized rise in 1Q20 GDP was 1.4% y/y, coming in within expectations, following the 2.2% y/y reading in 4Q19. Growth in 2Q20 is expected to be far worse, and we are likely to see a much more significant fall in household consumption with movement restrictions in place for a larger portion of the quarter despite the recent easing of measures.”

“As such, we have revised lower, in our 3Q20 quarterly update, our GDP forecasts for 2Q20 to -7.8% y/y, followed by contractions of -6.9% y/y in 3Q20 and -4.8% y/y in 4Q20. This brings our full-year 2020 GDP forecast to -4.5%, compared to -1.8% previously forecasted in our 2Q20 quarterly update.”

“The RBA has effectively exhausted conventional monetary policy by cutting the OCR to its self-imposed floor of 0.25%. Hence, we do not see further reductions in the policy rate, with negative rates ruled out by RBA Governor Phillip Lowe (for now). The focus will remain firmly on end-user rates via the yield curve target, as well as ensuring sufficient liquidity in bond markets and the free flow of credit to households and business.”

08:59
Japan's first-half bankruptcies rise for the first time in 11 years

Reuters reports that bankruptcies among Japanese companies in the first half of the year rose for the first time in 11 years due partly to the coronavirus pandemic which has hit hotel and restaurant businesses, according to data compiled by a research firm.

Tokyo Shoko Research, which tracks Japanese bankruptcies, said there were 4,001 cases in the six months through June, up 0.2% from a year earlier. Among them, 240 firms went bankrupt due to the coronavirus pandemic, the research firm said.

"While the coronavirus is one of the reasons of the rise in bankruptcy, most of them are ascribed to increase of labor costs and October's sales tax hike," a spokesman at the research firm said.

Bankruptcies in industries including accommodation and food services came in at 1,295, up 3.8% year on year, as declines in inbound tourism hit the sectors, the firm said.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had issued the state of emergency nationwide for more than a month until late May to stem the spread of COVID-19, which has infected nearly 21,000 people in the country and killed almost 1,000.

08:38
USD/CNH keep looking to 6.9950 – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group expect further decline in USD/CNH if the 6.9950 level is breached in the near-term.

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘further USD weakness would not be surprising and a break of the critical support at 6.9950 could potentially trigger further selling’. USD dropped to 6.9965 before staging a swift and sharp rebound. Downward momentum has eased and from here, USD could edge higher. That said, any advance is viewed as part of a 7.0100/7.0380 range (a sustained advance above 7.0380 is not expected).”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the view that USD is trading in consolidation phase for about 3 weeks. The manner by which the consolidation phase comes to an end was unexpected as USD staged a sudden lurch lower and plummeted by –0.78% yesterday (NY close of 7.0103). Downward momentum has picked up and the risk is for further USD weakness from here. A daily closing below the weekly trend-line support at 6.9950 could potentially lead to further sharp loss as the next support of note is not until 6.9500. All in, USD is expected to remain under pressure unless it can move back above 7.0550.”

08:19
Barclays says Italy's debt burden sustainable, likely to remain high

Reuters reports that although Italy's debt burden is rising sharply in the face of the COVID-19 shock, its debt trajectory is likely to stabilise at high levels rather than end up on "unsustainable exponential path," Barclays said in a new report on Wednesday.

"The key contributor is the structurally low core interest rates and the ECB's commitment to putting a cap on Italian spreads," Barclays said, referring to the European Central Bank's massive asset purchase scheme.

In a major new report on debt in developed markets, Barclays estimated the euro area debt-to-GDP was likely to increase to around 100% in 2020 from around 85% in 2019. It said the debt/GDP ratio may reach 165% in Italy.

Barclays analysts said the bar for a new euro zone debt crisis was high versus 2010-12, noting a sharp fall in financing costs.

They added that they expected the U.S. debt/GDP ratio to increase almost 30 percentage points over the next two years.

07:59
Lagarde says ECB has time to assess stimulus effectiveness

Bloomberg reports that Christine Lagarde signaled the European Central Bank will keep policy unchanged at its next meeting after its massive emergency stimulus helped calmed markets.

Speaking in an interview with Financial Times published on Wednesday, the ECB president said that measures unleashed in the wake of the pandemic have “demonstrated their efficiency, their effectiveness.” The Governing Council’s next decision is in just over a week, its first since it almost doubled the size of its pandemic purchase program to 1.35 trillion euro.

“We have done so much that we have quite a bit of time to assess” economic data “carefully,” Lagarde told the newspaper.

Her comments confirm the ECB has effectively switched to a wait-and-see mode after the economy began to bounce back. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday the recession could turn out somewhat milder than expected.

Lagarde also told the newspaper her institution wants to “explore every avenue available in order to combat climate change,” which could include examining “greener” changes to all of the central bank’s operations, including asset purchases.

07:41
Australia: Re-opening reversal to see a mild economic setback – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet reports that in the latest client note, Deutsche Bank Economist Phil Odanaghoe argued that the lockdown re-imposed in the Melbourne city is unlikely to have a major impact on the Australian economic recovery.

“Our initial sense is that the re-opening reversal stemming from the lockdown will see the economy surrender some - but not all - of the better than expected trajectory.

Crucially, the shutdown will close cross-border trade and movement between Victoria and New South Wales, which collectively account for more than half of Australia’s economy and population.

The two states, which are separated by the Murray River and its lucrative farming districts, had previously remained open to each other even as other states closed their domestic borders.”

07:22
French economy seen rebounding 19% in third-quarter, 3% in fourth-quarter - INSEE

Reuters reports that the French economy is set to rebound sharply in the second half of the year after an unprecedented slump in the first half due to a lockdown to contain the coronavirus, the INSEE stats agency said on Wednesday.

The euro zone's second-biggest economy likely contracted 17% in the second quarter from the previous three months, unchanged from a June forecast and already on the heels of a 5.3% slump in the first quarter, INSEE said.

The economy was set to rebound 19% in the third quarter and a further 3% in the fourth quarter, leaving the economy down about 9% over the full year, INSEE estimated.

The government put France under one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe in mid-March and began lifting restrictions on May 11.

07:02
Asian session review: the US dollar stabilised against the euro and yen

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
05:00JapanEco Watchers Survey: Current June15.5 38.8
05:00JapanEco Watchers Survey: OutlookJune36.5 44
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)June3.4%3.4%3.2%


During today's Asian trading, the US dollar was almost unchanged against the euro and the yen.

This week, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, plans to put forward his proposals to overcome differences between EU members on the economic recovery plan. EU leaders plan to discuss overcoming the crisis caused by the pandemic at a summit to be held on July 17-18.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the US dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose by 0.07%.

The head of the Federal reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said yesterday that the US unemployment data underestimates the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. Given that unemployment is at 11.1%, the Central Bank will have to take further measures to support the economy, said the head of the Federal reserve of Richmond, Thomas barkin.

Atlanta Fed Chairman Raphael Bostic warned that the US economic recovery, which began after the lifting of restrictive measures that were introduced to curb the spread of coronavirus infection, may stall due to an increase in the number of new infections in several major States.

Investors expect that on Wednesday, British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak will announce new measures of economic support, including the distribution of vouchers worth 500 pounds per adult and 250 pounds per child to increase spending in the most affected industries.

06:40
UK: downturn in recruitment activity eases in June

The latest KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs survey indicated a further drop in hiring activity during June as clients continued to freeze or cut back on their recruitment plans due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. That said, both permanent placements and temp billings fell at notably softer rates than in April and May. Demand for staff also fell at a weaker, albeit still marked, rate. However, redundancies and furloughed workers led to the steepest increase in labour supply since January 2009, with temp candidate numbers rising at a record pace. This, combined with subdued demand for staff, added further downward pressure on pay. The report is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies.

Recruitment consultancies signalled a softer decline in hiring activity at the end of the second quarter. Permanent staff placements and temporary billings both fell at notably weaker rates than in April and May when the COVID-19 pandemic was at its most severe. That said, rates of contraction remained sharp amid reports that clients continued to either pause or cancel recruitment plans.

The availability of workers rose at the quickest rate  since January 2009 in June. There were widespread reports of staff supply increasing due to redundancies and workers who were on furlough and seeking new roles. Substantial increases were signalled for both permanent and temporary staff numbers, with the latter rising at the quickest rate in the survey's 23-year history.

Starting pay for both permanent and short-term staff fell further in June as demand for workers remained weak and labour supply continued to increase. Though not as severe as in May, rates of reduction remained sharp for both starting salaries and temp wages

06:21
Switzerland's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in June

According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 150,289 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers at the end of June 2020, 5,709 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.4% in May 2020 to 3.2% in the reporting month. Unemployment rose by 53,067 people (+ 54.6%) compared to the same month last year. 

Youth unemployment in June 2020 Youth unemployment (15- to 24-year-olds) decreased by 441 people (-2.5%) to 17,317. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this corresponds to an increase of 7,555 people (+77.4%).

The number of unemployed 50-64 years decreased by 1,206 persons (-2.9%) to 39,684. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this corresponds to an increase of 11,583 people (+41.2%).

A total of 233’454 job seekers were registered, 472 more than in the previous month. Compared to the same period of the previous year, this number increased by 62,654 persons (+36.7%).

06:05
Options levels on wednesday, July 8, 2020 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1418 (1866)

$1.1390 (1793)

$1.1348 (1449)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1275

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1214 (429)

$1.1187 (1068)

$1.1155 (1749)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 48736 contracts (according to data from July, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (4341);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2760 (1312)

$1.2698 (1198)

$1.2650 (635)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2555

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2409 (257)

$1.2378 (1015)

$1.2343 (1413)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 17106 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2986);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 17616 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (1413);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 7

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:01
EUR/USD could test 1.1422 on a breakout of 1.1380 – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group see EUR/USD advancing to the 1.1420 region on a close of 1.1380.

24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR to ‘test the strong resistance at 1.1380’ was incorrect as it slumped after touching 1.1332. Upward momentum has eased and EUR has likely moved into a consolidation phase. For today, EUR is likely to trade sideways between 1.1240 and 1.1320.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR closed on a relatively strong note yesterday (1.1308, +0.53%) and upward momentum is beginning to pick up. However, it appears to be too early to expect a sustained advance. EUR has to close above the top of our expected sideway-trading range of 1.1170/1.1380 in order to indicate that it is ready to move to last month’s peak at 1.1422. At this stage, the prospect for such a move is not high but it would continue to increase as long as EUR does not move below 1.1240 within these few days.”

05:46
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), June 3.2% (forecast 3.4%)
05:02
Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook, June 44
05:01
Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Current , June 38.8
00:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, July 8, 2020
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current June 15.5  
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook June 36.5  
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) June 3.4% 3.4%
09:00 Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts    
12:15 Canada Housing Starts June 193.5 198
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -7.195 -3.4
16:15 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit May -68.78 -15.5
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders May -12% -5.4%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y May -17.7% -17.1%
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, July 7, 2020
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.69432 -0.43
EURJPY 121.21 -0.17
EURUSD 1.12724 -0.32
GBPJPY 134.906 0.63
GBPUSD 1.2547 0.47
NZDUSD 0.65443 -0.07
USDCAD 1.36047 0.53
USDCHF 0.94236 0.04
USDJPY 107.519 0.15

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