Tin tức thì trường

• Overall Business Outlook Survey indicator fell sharply (to -7.0 in Q2 from 0.5 in Q1) due to the impacts of COVID‑19 pandemic and measures to contain the spread of the virus
• Businesses expect weakness in domestic and foreign demand to continue due to impacts from COVID‑19 and low oil prices
• Forward-looking sales indicators collapsed; now at a record-low level, future sales indicators are suggesting a notable decline in sales growth in the near term
• Softer sales expectations are widespread across all regions and sectors, with firms often expressing high degree of uncertainty about consumer behaviour and future demand
• Half of exporters expect their sales abroad to decrease over the next 12 months
• However, many businesses expect weakness in their sales to be temporary and not extend over entire 12-month period ahead; half of firms anticipate that their sales will mostly recover within next year as pandemic-related impacts recede
• Businesses in most regions and sectors intend to significantly cut their investment spending; hiring plans are muted
• Expectations for input and output price growth as well as for overall inflation are all down considerably because of weak demand related to the pandemic
• Firms’ inflation expectations declined significantly to a near-record low; many businesses anticipate inflation will be below 1 percent over the next two years
• Credit conditions have tightened significantly, but government measures are helpful offset

FXStreet notes that gold has reversed an early dip to the $1770 area and is now trading near daily highs at $1785. Strategists at TD Securities note the yellow metal is sold in response to risk-on, just to recover gains shortly after. 

“In precious metals, nearly every trading session in the past few months has a sense of déjà vu, as traders aggressively sell the yellow metal in response to risk-on, only to see gold grind higher shortly after. This trading behavior is entirely consistent with our market thesis – gold is the midst of a regime shift, transitioning from trading as a safe-haven asset to an inflation-hedge product.”

“Long-term inflation expectations are rising in sync with risk-on behavior, while rates-vol remains deeply constrained amid uber-supportive policy, fueling a process that weighs on real yields. With 10y breakevens continuing to print new post-Covid highs, the normalization in inflation expectations may remain a powerful driver lifting gold prices deeper into $1,800/oz territory.” 

“Looking forward, the world-war era fiscal and central bank stimulus, the change in the central bank template that will incorporate 'symmetric inflation targets' and unwinding globalization, also suggest that inflation-hedge assets may grow in popularity.”

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 57.1 in June, which was 11.7 percentage points higher than the May reading of 45.4 percent. The reading was the highest since February and represented growth in the non-manufacturing sector after a two-month period of contraction preceded by 122 straight months of expansion. It was also the largest single-month percentage-point increase in the NMI since its debut in 1997.

Economists forecast the index to increase only to 49.5 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported increases last month, the ISM said, adding that respondents remained concerned about the coronavirus and the more recent civil unrest, but they were cautiously optimistic about business conditions and the economy as businesses were beginning to reopen.

According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing Business Activity measure surged 25 percentage points to 66 percent from May’s figure of 41 percent. Meanwhile, the New Orders gauge came in at 61.6 percent, 9.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 41.9 percent in May. The Employment Index increased by 11.3 percentage points to 43.1 percent from the May reading of 31.8 percent. The Prices Index of 62.4 percent is 6.8 percentage points higher than the May reading of 55.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in June. Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index registered at 57.5 percent, down 9.5 percentage points from May’s reading of 67 percent.

Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for June (57.1 percent) corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

The latest report by IHS Markit revealed on Monday the seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index (PMI) stood at 47.9 in June, up significantly from 37.5 in May and higher than the “flash” figure of 46.7. This was the highest reading since February and signaled a notably softer rate of the contraction in business activity across the U.S. service sector as many companies began to reopen following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 46.7.

According to the report, New business inflows meanwhile broadly stabilized in June, following three successive monthly contractions, while export sales rose for the first time so far in 2020. At the same time, the rate of job shedding softened markedly, while excess capacity eased as backlogs fell only fractionally as firms processed unfinished business upon the resumption of operations. O the price front, inflationary pressure returned as both input prices and output charges rose for the first time since February, with both increasing at solid rates.

FXStreet notes that NZD/USD broke above the pivotal 2014 downtrend at 0.6542 in early trading today as jumped to four-week tops, around the 0.6565-region. The next pivotal resistance is now seen at the June high at 0.6584, analysts at Credit Suisse apprise.

“Removal of 0.6542 on a sustained and closing basis today would further underpin the upswing and suggest that we can expect a renewed test of the June high at 0.6584, where the market may take another breather.” 

“Only a clear break above the 0.6584 June high would emphasize thoughts of a broader change in trend to the upside, with 0.6665 the next resistance of note.”

“Support is initially seen at 0.6545/42, then 0.6534, ahead of 0.6508/01, where we would expect to see a first attempt to hold. Beneath here though would see a move back to 0.6441/36, removal of which in contrast could see a fall back to 0.6385/77, where we would then expect the market to find a floor.”

USD fell against most major currencies in the European session on Monday,  as global recovery expectations fueled risk appetite. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.45% to 96.73.

The PMI data, released last week, pointed to a recovery in major economies' factory activity, and the U.S. employment report revealed that the country's economy regained millions more jobs in June from May, as COVID-19 restrictions eased. 

In addition, expectations that China's economy is to rebound strongly also bolstered broader risk sentiment. Bloomberg reported that The Securities Times, China's influential state media, said fostering a “healthy” bull market after the coronavirus pandemic was now more important to the Chinese economy than ever.

Meanwhile, the U.S. currency continued to grapple with growing worries about an increase in coronavirus cases in several U.S. states, including Florida, Texas and California, and the possibility of renewed lockdowns to contain the virus spread.

Market participants are also awaiting reports on the U.S. services sector - from Markit at 13:45 GMT and ISM at 14:00 GMT - which are expected to show that the activity in the sector stopped contracting in June.

FXStreet notes that EUR/GBP while above support at 0.9000/0.8984 holds the downside and analysts at Credit Suisse look for the trend to turn higher again for a retest of resistance at 0.9184. 

“Resistance stays seen at 0.9082 initially, then 0.9146/48, above which can see a retest of 0.9178/84. Beyond here in due course can see resistance next at 0.9277, then the 78.6% retracement at 0.9323. Beyond here can eventually expose the 0.9501 high for the year from March.” 

“Below 0.9000 and then 0.8984/83 – the uptrend from February – would see the ‘triangle’ negated to see the broader risk turn sideways again with support seen next at 0.8966, then 0.8924.”

S&P 500: Buy the dips ahead of earnings season - Citibank

FXStreet reports that the Citibank analysts have changed their view on the risk assets from bearish to neutral, with the US benchmark, S&P 500 index, looking promising ahead of the earnings season.

“Markets seem to be less troubled about the rising number COVID-19 cases amid falling hospital and fatality trends, better targeted economic restrictions and medical breakthroughs are possible.

Recommend buy the dips in US equities (S&P500), as they look higher ahead of earnings season.

The US dollar bias probably now is negative.

Citing the EU recovery fund and less threat from the German court ruling on BUBA bond-buying, EUR/USD risks the further upside.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at FX Strategists at UOB Group suggest that the potential test of the 108.40 in USD/JPY appears to be losing momentum as of late.

24-hour view: “USD flat-lined last Friday as it traded within a tight range of 14 pips (between 107.42 and 107.56), the smallest 1-day range this year. USD opened on a relatively firm note this morning and it could grind higher towards 107.85. For today, the next resistance at 108.15 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 107.40 followed by 107.25.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Tuesday (30 Jun, spot at 107.70) that ‘upward momentum is beginning to improve and USD could strengthen towards 108.40’. USD subsequently rose to a high of 108.14 before dropping back quickly and over the past couple of days, traded mostly sideways. Upward momentum has eased but only a break of 107.00 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the upside risk has dissipated. In other words, there is still chance for USD to move to 108.40 even though the odds for such a scenario have diminished.”

FXStreet notes that GBP/USD benefits from the US dollar weakness and rises to 1.2490 on Monday. In doing so, the cable registers 0.07% gains and stretches Friday’s gains to challenge the monthly top beyond 1.2500 but a break above 1.2550 is needed for a deeper move higher, analysts at OCBC Bank brief.

“A slight positive bias to start this week, but any significant positive traction should only materialize if the cable can breach 1.2550 on a sustainable basis.”

“Note that short-term implied valuations are implicitly heavy.” 

“In the interim, 1.2400 would be a firmer base to the interim floor at 1.2450.”

FXStreet notes that USD/CHF is trading at 0.9415, 0.34% lower on a day, as the pair is set to remain under pressure while below 0.9532/53. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, targets the June 11 low at 0.9376.

“USD/CHF continues to weigh on the downside. While capped by the two-month resistance line at 0.9499 a negative bias will persist with our downside target remaining the 0.9376 June 11 low which is the last defence for 0.9184 the March low.”

“Further resistance can be spotted at the 0.9532/53 mid- and late June highs. These would need to be overcome for current downside pressure to be alleviated and for a recovery to the five-month downtrend line at 0.9637 to become possible.”

FXStreet reports that economists at ANZ Bank have looked into the impact that past changes in the RBA’s commentary around the aussie had on the currency and have found that the inclusion of the exchange rate in the statement generates some weakness in the AUD though it is short-lived when it is not accompanied by an actual shift in policy. 

“In half the cases we looked at, the AUD fell by between 0.5-1% on the day that negative rhetoric on the AUD appeared in a statement. In four of the six instances, those losses persisted into the two-to ten-day window; but the gains from being short were not substantial enough to be classed as a trend shift, instead it looks like a tactical trading opportunity. Of all the crosses, the AUD/USD provided the most reliable and strongest trend to trade. There was no evidence that a ‘buy the dip’ strategy would work, even when the trend ahead of the RBA was higher.” 

 “We do not think any potential shift in tone from the RBA will prove critical to the direction of the AUD, unless it is followed up by policy action. This would need the AUD/USD to be trading above 0.75 for a sustained period and absent an improvement in its fundamental drivers, like the terms of trade. And that scenario is a long way off, for now. So we would treat any near-term shift in the RBA’s tone as tactical in nature, rather than a signal of a trend shift for the AUD.”

CNBC reports that China’s economic recovery could cool in the second half of 2020 after its strong bounce from lows earlier in the year, according to Deutsche Bank’s chief economist and head of research for Asia Pacific, Michael Spencer.

“China is clearly advancing rapidly out of the Covid epidemic,” Spencer told CNB. “All of the data since the middle of February have pointed to as near enough to a V-shaped recovery as we’re going to get anywhere.”

The outlook ahead, however, appears to be less clear — according to Spencer — who said the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is “first and foremost” on consumption activity as people are either locked in or choosing not to go out.

“When you look at the Chinese data — excluding cinemas which are still closed and restaurants where people still have an aversion to going into large restaurants — retail sales of goods have almost completely recovered, as of May, to the sort of seasonally adjusted pre-Covid level,” Spencer said. 

As a result of the recovery in Chinese domestic demand, he said: “The sequential growth rate is just going to get slower as there’s less of a gap to normal activity to close.”

Meanwhile, sales of medical equipment have been a “very important contributor to export growth” over the last few months, though the economist said that will likely “taper off.”

FXStreet reports that as the US presidential election is slowly turning into a hot topic, economists at Nordea bet that Biden will win. The most immediate reaction will be a stronger USD and performance in duration as a Biden-victory may not be discounted at all in markets despite strong polling.

“If we assume that Biden intends to roll back corporate tax cuts, we would argue that the initial reaction would prove to be EUR/USD negative while the USD equities would likely struggle to outperform EUR equities over the medium-term. So, if we really summon our inner Cassandras, we suggest that EUR/USD goes swiftly down post a Biden victory, before returning higher over the medium-term. EUR/USD bulls will need to cheer on Trump in November.”

“In general, we find that Biden’s presidency should be reflected in an initially stronger USD (due to a less benign corporate tax policy), less US outperformance of peers, sector outperformance in sustainables and a larger geopolitical risk premium on China (yes, we said that).”

“It will probably remain a good idea to buy duration (and bet on flatteners) should Biden win the election. Should Biden opt for a less benign corporate tax regime, we would also argue that it speaks in favor of a more disinflationary environment with decent performance in duration.”

According to the report from Eurostat, in May 2020, when Member States began easing the COVID-19 containment measures, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 17.8% in the euro area and by 16.4% in the EU, compared with April 2020. Economists had expected a 15.0% increase  in the euro area. In April 2020, the retail trade volume decreased by 12.1% in the euro area and by 11.4% in the EU. 

In May 2020 compared with May 2019, the calendar adjusted retail sales index decreased by 5.1% in the euro area and by 4.2% in the EU.

In the euro area in May 2020, compared with April 2020, the volume of retail trade increased by 38.4% for automotive fuels, by 34.5% for non food products and by 2.2% for food, drinks and tobacco. In the EU, the volume of retail trade increased by 31.9% for automotive fuels, by 30.2% for non-food products and by 2.1% for food, drinks and tobacco. It can be noted that the volume of retail trade in textiles, clothing and footwear rose by 147.0% in the euro area and by 130.7% in the EU.

The volume of retail trade increased in all Member States for which data are available, except in Bulgaria, where it remained unchanged. The highest increases were registered in Luxembourg (+28.6%), France (+25.6%) and Austria (+23.3%).

According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS UK, June data pointed to a sharp turnaround in the performance of the UK construction sector as the phased restart of work on site helped to lift output volumes and boost business confidence. At the same time, new orders stabilised after three months of sharp declines and purchasing activity expanded at the fastest rate since December 2015.

The headline seasonally adjusted UK Construction Total Activity Index jumped to 55.3 in June, from 28.9 in May, to signal a strong increase in total construction output. Moreover, the latest reading signalled the steepest pace of expansion since July 2018. Higher levels of business activity were overwhelmingly linked to the reopening of the UK construction supply chain following stoppages and business closures during the early stages of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Residential building was the best-performing area of construction activity in June. Around 46% of survey respondents noted an increase in housing activity, while only 27% experienced a reduction. The latest expansion of residential construction work was the steepest for just under five years.

Commercial work and civil engineering activity also returned to growth in June, although the rates of expansion were softer than seen for house building. New business volumes increased marginally in June, which ended a three-month period of decline. However, the rate of new order growth was far weaker than seen for business activity, reflecting ongoing hesitancy among clients and longer lead-times to secure new contracts. A number of construction firms noted that new work related to infrastructure projects was a key source of growth in June.

The index measuring business expectations for the year ahead remained historically subdued, but climbed to its highest since February amid a boost from the reopening of work on site. Exactly 46% of the survey panel anticipate a rise in business activity, while 31% forecast a reduction. The latter mostly commented on concerns about the wider UK economic outlook. Severe supply chain disruptions continued in June, reflecting stronger demand for construction inputs and ongoing reports of constrained materials availability (especially plaster). This resulted in another rise in purchasing costs, with the rate of inflation accelerating to its highest since the start of 2020. 

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted that USD/CNH is still expected to navigate within the 7.0400-7.1000 range in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “USD traded in a tight 7.0632/7.0710 range last Friday before closing little changed at 7.0683 (+0.02%). The price action upon opening this morning appears weak and from here, USD could edge lower to 7.0550. For today, a sustained decline below this level is not expected. Resistance is at 7.0700 followed by 7.0750.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Tuesday (25 Jun, spot at 7.0760). The quiet price actions since then reinforce our view that USD/CNH is still expected to trade sideways, likely within a broad 7.0400/7.1000 range.”

According to the report from IHS Markit, the Eurozone Construction Total Activity Index rose sharply from 39.5 in May to 48.3 in June, indicating the weakest decline in construction activity across the eurozone since February amid a relaxation of measures designed to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Survey data showed France and Italy recorded construction output growth, while Germany posted a further marked decline.

Work undertaken on home construction projects in the eurozone declined further at the end of the second quarter. That said, the pace of contraction eased markedly from May and was only modest overall. The downturn in housing construction activity was led by Germany and France. By contrast, Italy posted a second monthly rise in home building activity.

Commercial building activity across the eurozone fell further in June. The rate of decline slowed further from April's record, but was marked overall. The decline was driven by Germany, while France and Italy registered growth, with the former doing so after three consecutive months of decline. Meanwhile, eurozone civil engineering activity likewise fell further in June, extending the current sequence of contraction to 11 months. The rate of decline was noticeably slower than May but remained steep overall. National data revealed a decline in civil engineering in Germany and Italy, while France posted growth.

New business received by eurozone construction firms fell further in June, though the rate of decline eased noticeably from May. While lower sales were linked to weak client demand, there were reports that the easing of COVID-19 restrictions boosted orders at some firms.

Overall sentiment among eurozone building companies remained negative in June. This was reflected by the Future Activity Index remaining below the neutral 50.0 level despite rising to a four-month high. Firms remained concerned about the impact of COVID-19 measures on investment. Germany and France both reported a negative construction outlook, while Italian constructors’ confidence surged to the highest for just over a year.

FXStreet reports that EUR/USD is approaching the 1.13 level and as the pair stays above 1.1168, Commerzbank’s Axel Rudolph is looking at the 1.1422 June high with the March high at 1.1495 then capping. 

“We will retain our bullish bias while EUR/USD stays above its 1.1168 June 22 low on a daily chart closing basis. While this is the case we will continue to target key resistance at the 1.1422 June high.” 

“The 1.1422 June high, together with the March high at 1.1495, represents quite formidable resistance which we would expect to cap at first.” 

“A break above the March high at 1.1495 is eventually favoured and would target the 2019 high at 1.1570, then 1.1815/22, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the 2018 peak and the September 2018 high.”

Bloomberg reports that the relationship between the U.S. and China would have to get a lot worse to hurt Chinese stocks in a significant way, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

There’s “still-decent risk/reward for Chinese stocks unless U.S.-China relations substantially deteriorate from here, lending support to our Overweight call on China in a regional context,” strategists including Kinger Lau and Timothy Moe wrote in a note dated July 5. “Old Economy and Value may have generally overreacted to the rising tensions, while ‘New China’ and Growth may have under-priced the US-China risk” in recent months, they added.

The strategists came to that conclusion via a U.S.-China “relations barometer” they created that includes factors like geopolitics and capital markets. A gauge of trade tensions they’ve been using doesn’t fully capture the broad range of issues that have begun to affect markets, they said.

Chinese stocks have outperformed so far this year, amid expectations the country’s economy is bouncing back from the hit taken due to measures to stop Covid-19. The MSCI China Index is up 7.2% and Shanghai Composite 6.8%, while the S&P 500 is still under water by 3.1% and MSCI’s all-country equity gauge is down 5.9%.

“Stocks that appear most exposed to U.S.-China relations are technology companies and ADRs while domestic-demand-focused consumption and health-care names should be relatively immune,” the Goldman report said.

Companies that tend to underperform amid rising tensions include Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co., Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co. and BYD Electronic International Co., according to the strategists, while those that tend to outperform include Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Li Ning Co. and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd.

FXStreet reports that the Goldman Sachs analysts remain optimistic on the Euro area economic growth outlook, in light of the improving coronavirus situation in the bloc and on the recovery fund hopes.

“New infection numbers remain low - the spike in confirmed cases in Germany last month has proven temporary.

High-frequency economic indicators are showing a robust rebound.

After hesitating initially, the policy has also turned very supportive. Although we expect the EUR750bn Recovery Fund to shrink slightly to EUR600bn before implementation, it is coming alongside aggressive ECB asset purchases that should suffice to close the sizable "funding gap" of its Southern Member States. 

We therefore remain comfortable with our far above-consensus forecast that Euro area real GDP will grow nearly 25% over the next two years (in cumulative terms).”

Reuters reports that in a world reshaped by coronavirus, China needs further share market gains to fund a rapidly developing digital economy and strengthen its hand in intensifying power rivalries, state media said on Monday.

China's economy is recovering, while its capital markets are undergoing reform and attracting money from home and abroad, setting the scene for a healthy bull market, the official China Securities Journal said in an editorial on Monday.

The commentary from the newspaper, which is affiliated to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, points to government support for a further stock market run-up following a recent strong rebound. China's CSI300 jumped over 4% on Monday morning to a fresh five-year high.

A vibrant capital market can help the Chinese economy "breed new opportunities in crisis, and break new ground in a changing world", the editorial said.

China has been stepping up capital market reforms amid tech-related tensions with the United States, while relations have worsened due to the coronavirus, which U.S. President Donald Trump blamed China for mishandling.

With the global supply chain being reshaped and power rivalries intensifying, China will be aided by a mature financial market, the editorial said.

The country introduced a U.S.-style, registration-based system for new listings on its Nasdaq-style STAR Market launched a year ago, and is replicating the reform on Shenzhen's start-up board ChiNext.

The new mechanism and other reform measures have laid the foundation for a "healthy bull" market, which is also being fueled by evidence of the country's strong economic recovery, the editorial said.

According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 10.4% in May 2020 compared with April 2020. Economists had expected a 15.0% increase. Compared with May 2019, the decrease in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to 29.3%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing seasonally and calendar adjusted were 8.9% higher than in the previous month.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in May 2020 were 30.8% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

Domestic orders increased by 12.3% and foreign orders rose by 8.8% in May 2020 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area went up 20.9%, and new orders from other countries increased by 2.0% compared with April 2020.

In May 2020 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 0.4% compared with April 2020. The manufacturers of capital goods saw an increase of 20.3% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders rose 4.7%.

New orders in the automotive industry increased again markedly in May 2020, after very low levels in April 2020. However, new orders were still more than 47% lower than in February 2020.

For April 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 26.2% compared with March 2020 (provisional: -25.8%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1342 (670)

$1.1318 (1445)

$1.1299 (280)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1289

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1175 (526)

$1.1153 (1038)

$1.1127 (1569)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 48157 contracts (according to data from July, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (5389);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2650 (672)

$1.2601 (943)

$1.2553 (376)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2494

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2438 (1302)

$1.2397 (696)

$1.2349 (834)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 16503 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1689);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 19456 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1473);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.