Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water ahead of Fed

• The Dow Jones remains stuck just below the 42,000 level on Wednesday.
• Markets are bracing for an update to the Fed’s dot plot of interest rate expectations.
• Investors remain hopeful, but dark turns in consumer data are getting hard to ignore.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady within familiar territory on Wednesday, but holding a bullish stance as investors gear up for another showing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s latest rate call is broadly expected to be another hold on interest rates, but an update to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be drawing all market eyes.

The Fed’s SEP, or “dot plot” of interest rate expectations, could have huge ramifications for markets that have, up until this point, continued to tilt into hopes of continued rate cuts during the latter months of 2025. Fed policymakers tend to have a more accurate track record of estimating upcoming changes in policy rates, and the median of the dot plot will drive interest rate expectations accordingly.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones is treading water just beneath the key 42,000 handle, and price action is being kept under a tight lid by the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Chart watchers have seen the Dow take a sharp tumble in recent weeks, and candles could be due for another topside run as technical oscillators begin to climb out of oversold territory.

Dow Jones daily chart