Gold price (XAU/USD) halts its two-day winning streak on Wednesday as rising US Treasury yields pressured non-yielding assets. However, the precious metal could receive upward support from safe-haven demand amid the implementation of US tariffs. Trump's 25% levies on Mexican and Canadian imports took effect on Tuesday, alongside a hike in Chinese duties to 20%, escalating trade tensions and prompting retaliation.
However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested in a Fox News interview that Trump may reconsider his tariff policy less than 48 hours after its implementation. He noted that if the USMCA rules are followed, relief could be offered. However, the New York Times reported that Trump has privately signaled that he intends to maintain the tariffs.
The safe-haven Gold attracted buyers as the US paused military aid to Ukraine. Bloomberg cited a defense official stating that all US military equipment not yet in Ukraine would be grounded, including weapons in transit via aircraft and ships, as well as those waiting in transit areas in Poland. On Friday, tensions escalated between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy during peace deal negotiations.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around $2,910 per troy ounce on Wednesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the metal price consolidates within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting the bullish bias is intact. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above 50, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
The XAU/USD could target primary resistance at the all-time high of $2,956, recorded on February 24.
On the downside, the immediate support is found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,902. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and lead the price to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $2,583 level.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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