USD/INR holds steady ahead of Indian PMI data

• The Indian Rupee trades flat in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Renewed USD demand and persistent outflows by foreign institutional investors could undermine the INR. 
• India’s HSBC PMI and US ISM Services PMI will be the highlights later on Wednesday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Wednesday. The rising US Dollar (USD) buying by foreign banks and Indian importers, especially local oil companies, might exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Furthermore, the ongoing foreign outflows amid increasing global trade tensions could drag the INR lower. Foreign investors have pulled over $14 billion from Indian equities in 2025.

On the other hand, Crude oil prices are trading near the lowest in almost three months as OPEC+ said it will proceed with a plan to increase oil production from April. This, in turn, could help limit the INR’s losses as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. 

Later on Wednesday, investors will brace for India’s HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Services PMI. On the US docket, the ISM Services PMI will take center stage. 

Indian Rupee steadies despite escalating global trade tensions

• The RBI's net short dollar position in forwards and futures hit a record high of $77.5 billion in January 2025, as per data released after market hours on Friday. 
• President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico took effect Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. 
• US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that Trump may be preparing to pivot on his own tariffs less than 48 hours after imposing them. 
• New York Fed President John Williams said late Tuesday that although inflationary pressures have eased and the US labor market appears strong, the US central bank will have to take a close look at the fallout from the US tariff actions.

USD/INR’s constructive outlook remains in place

The Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline near 60.00, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at 87.53, the high of February 28. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is an all-time high near 88.00, en route to 88.50. 

In the bearish case, the 87.05-87.00 zone acts as a crucial support level for the pair. A breach of this level could expose 86.48, the low of February 21, followed by 86.14, the low of January 27.