The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers on Friday in reaction to comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, saying that higher long-term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation. This assists the USD/JPY pair to stage a modest bounce from the 149.30-149.25 region, or its lowest level since December 3 touched during the Asian session. However, any meaningful JPY depreciation still seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would hike interest rates further.
Hawkish BoJ expectations were reaffirmed by Japan's strong National Consumer Price Index (CPI) print and remain supportive of elevated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The resultant narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries should continue to underpin the lower-yielding JPY. Apart from this, the recent US Dollar (USD) fall, amid concerns about the US consumer health and despite bets for an extended pause on rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed), might cap the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the 151.00-150.90 horizontal support and a subsequent fall below the 150.00 psychological mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside and any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 151.00 round figure.
Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 151.40 hurdle en route to the 152.00 round-figure mark. The recovery momentum, however, runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 152.65 area. The said barrier represents the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which if cleared decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
On the flip side, the 150.00 mark now seems to act as an immediate support ahead of the 149.30-149.25 region, or a multi-month low touched during the Asian session. This is closely followed by the 149.00 mark, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide further towards testing the December 2024 swing low, around the 148.65 region.
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Feb 20, 2025 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4%
Consensus: -
Previous: 3.6%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
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