GBP/USD remains subdued near 1.2500 due to increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts

• GBP/USD edges lower amid light trading day post-Christmas holiday.
• The US Dollar strengthens as expectations grow for reduced Fed policy easing next year.
• The Pound Sterling struggles as a surprise MPC split vote signals a potentially accelerated pace of monetary easing in 2025.

GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.2520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The downside can be attributed to thin trading activity following the Christmas holiday and a stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by growing expectations of fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

In its December meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 projection to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously forecasted four. However, the likelihood of additional rate cuts next year was tempered by moderate US PCE inflation data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, trades above 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as US Treasury bond yields remain subdued on Friday. 2-year and 10-year yields stand at 4.33% and 4.58%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened against its major counterparts as expectations grew for a dovish policy stance from the Bank of England (BoE) in the coming year. In December, the UK central bank held its key interest rate steady at 4.75%, but a surprising split vote—where three policymakers supported rate cuts—hinted at a potentially faster pace of easing in 2025.

Market expectations for 2025 now include a 53-basis-point (bps) rate cut, up from the previously anticipated 46 bps. This adjustment follows a 6-3 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with three of the nine members advocating for a 25 bps rate reduction. Investors interpreted this as a clear signal of a dovish shift on the horizon.