Canadian Dollar slumps as Canadian CPI inflation cools further

• The Canadian Dollar shed another 0.4% against the Greenback on Tuesday.
• Canada saw a steeper-than-expected contraction in headline CPI inflation figures.
• Underlying drivers in Canadian inflation throw warning signs for consumer spending.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) plunged to a fresh multi-year low on Tuesday, falling four-tenths of a percent against the Greenback and pushing USD/CAD to its highest bids in nearly five years, sending the pair above 1.4300 for the first time since March of 2020. Annualized Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures disappointed markets, delivering a muddle picture of Canadian price growth on both sides of the equation.

Despite headline Canadian CPI easing below the 2% mark on a yearly basis, monthly inflation figures appear to remain stuck. Core CPI inflation also remains sticky, trending north of 2.7% YoY, though the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) own measure of core CPI is continuing to drift lower.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar drops further after CPI print misses the mark

• Headline Canadian CPI inflation came in at 1.9% YoY, below the expected hold at 2.0%.
• The BoC’s in-house CPI Core metric grew by 1.6% YoY, below the previous 1.7%.
• The overall backslide in main Canadian CPI figures will help to bolster expectations of another rate cut from the BoC in January, despite BoC Governor Tiff Macklem’s recent warnings that the pace of BoC rate cuts will be “more gradual” from here on out.
• Underlying core inflation remains sticky despite the drops in headline figures; while the BoC expects core inflation to average 2.3% in the fourth quarter, it is currently drifting near 2.7%.
• Mortgage interest costs eased in November, helping to soften CPI metrics, though underlying rent prices accelerated another 7.7% over the same period.
• As much as Canadians welcomed discounts on electronics and guided tour travel costs around Black Friday, another 2.6% annualized increase in grocery costs still bites into wallets as Canadians struggle to replace food with television sets.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

The Canadian Dollar has shed over 2.2% against the US Dollar in December alone and is on pace to end lower against the Greenback for a fourth straight month. As the Loonie continues to deflate against the USD, USD/CAD prices have rallied back above the 1.4300 handle, a bottom-to-top rise of nearly 7% from September’s bottom bids near 1.3420.

USD/CAD has moved steadily north in a one-sided medium-term trend, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has struggled to keep up with price action as the key moving average rises into 1.3400. As Greenback bidders continues to pummel the Loonie, USD/CAD bids are headed to highs not seen since the height of the COVID pandemic above 1.4600.

USD/CAD daily chart