GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sees modest gains below 1.2700

• GBP/USD advances slightly by 0.15% following positive US Retail Sales.
• Technical indicators suggest potential challenges; a 'death cross' looms as the 50-day SMA approaches the 200-day SMA.
• Resistance noted at the December 12 high of 1.2787; support levels are at 1.2608 and potentially lower towards 1.2299 YTD low.

The GBP/USD advances modestly by some 0.15% following the release of solid US Retail Sales data, which put a lid on the pair’s advance. UK labor market data delivered during the European session was mixed, with the economy adding 173K jobs to the workforce in October, ahead of the release of the UK Autumn budget. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.2702.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD daily chart suggests the pair is neutral to downward biased, yet in the near term, it is skewed to the upside. Buyers need to clear decisively the 1.2700 mark.

Momentum remains bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending up below its neutral line. This and the imminent ‘death cross’ in the GBP/USD with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) about to cross below the 200-day SMA could pave the way for further losses.

That said, if GBP/USD fails to finish Tuesday’s session above 1.2700, it could expose the current week’s low of 1.2608. If surpassed, sellers could drive prices to 1.2486 on November 22, followed by the May 9 low of 1.2445. On further weakness, the year-to-date (YTD) low would be up for grabs at 1.2299.

Conversely, if GBP/USD edges up and clears the December 12 peak of 1.2787, it will expose the confluence of the 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA at around 1.2817/1.2822.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily