Gold dives as markets anticipate a hawkish Fed cut

• Gold fails at $2,665 and resumes its near-term bearish trend as the US Dollar picks up.
• Investors’ concerns about a “hawkish cut” by the Fed on Wednesday are buoying US Treasury yields.
• XAU/USD remains under pressure, approaching support at the $2,630 area.

Gold’s (XAU/USD) upside attempts have been short-lived. The precious metal retreats further on Tuesday’s European session, weighed by rallying US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar (USD).

The stronger-than-expected US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures seen on Monday confirm the view of steady US growth in the fourth quarter and point to a gradual Federal Reserve (Fed) easing in 2025.

Later today, US Retail Sales are expected to show that consumption remained buoyant in November. In this context, investors are still confident that the Fed will cut rates on Wednesday but anticipate a hawkish forward guidance. This is boosting US Treasury yields and weighing on Gold.

Daily digest market movers: Gold suffers on hopes of a hawkish Fed 

• Gold continues to lose ground as interest in the Middle East conflict recedes, at least for the moment. The focus now shifts to the US Federal Reserve, which starts its two-day monetary policy meeting today.
   
• Futures markets are almost fully pricing a 25 bps interest rate cut on Wednesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, but less than a 30% chance of more than two quarter-percentage cuts in 2025.
   
• US data from Monday revealed that business activity in the services sector expanded faster than expected in December, suggesting that the economy has remained growing at a healthy rate in the fourth quarter.
   
• Later today, US Retail Sales are expected to show a 0.5% growth in November, up from 0.4% the previous month. This suggests that consumption, which accounts for 65% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), will post a positive contribution in Q4.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD is under pressure with $2,630 support on focus

Gold keeps heading south after rejection at the $2,720 resistance area last week. A potential double top at the abovementioned level and the bearish engulfing candle last Thursday are keeping sellers hopeful.

The negative candle on the 4-hour chart suggests an increasing bearish momentum. The pair might find some support in the $2,630 area (December 9 low), although the key downside target is the November 25, 26, and December 6 lows at around $2,610.

On the other side, resistances are Monday’s high at $2,665 and Friday’s intra-day level at $2,690.
 

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart