USD/INR trades stronger as Trump threatens BRICS nations with 100% tariffs

• The Indian Rupee weakens in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Persistent portfolio outflows and weak domestic macroeconomic data undermine the INR. 
• Investors brace for the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI and US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which are due later on Monday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under some selling pressure on Monday after reaching an all-time low in the previous session. Donald Trump's victory in the US Presidential election sparked a wave of Greenback strength and dragged the INR lower. Additionally, the weaker-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the July-September quarter could spark fresh outflows from stocks, weighing on the local currency. 

Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations, including India, if they went ahead with developing their common currency to replace the USD. Meanwhile, India has been cautious in its ambitious move to de-dollarise even as the United States recently became India's leading trading partner.

Investors await the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, which is estimated to ease to 57.3 from 57.5 in October. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight. Goldman Sachs analysts expect the Indian central bank to maintain the repo rate and policy stance unchanged but sound cautious on food inflation and acknowledge the moderation in growth. On the US docket, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later on Monday. 

Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid unabated foreign fund outflows, downbeat GDP data

• India’s real GDP growth slumped to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the July to September 2024 quarter from a 6.7% growth in the first quarter (Q1). The RBI forecast GDP growth of 6.8% in Q2. 
• "Despite the sharp slowdown in GDP growth, we maintain our view of a pause by the RBI next week given elevated inflation and an uncertain global environment," noted Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. 
• US President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday that the BRICS Countries should use the US Dollar (USD) as their reserve currency and threatened to impose a 100% tariff if they supported another currency to replace the USD, per BBC.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in October.

USD/INR maintains a strong uptrend in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. Technically, the constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in play on the daily chart as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which is located above the midline near 65.85, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

Bullish candlesticks and sustained trading above the ascending trend channel at 84.55 could lead USD/INR to the 85.00 psychological mark. 

On the downside, bearish candlesticks below the lower limit of the trend channel of 84.28 could drag the pair back to 83.96, the 100-day EMA. If there’s enough bearish momentum, USD/INR could head for 83.65, the low of August 1.