AUD/USD consolidates below 0.6500 as rebounding US bond yields revive USD demand

• AUD/USD struggles to find acceptance above 0.6500 amid the emergence of some USD buying.
• Bets for slower Fed rate cuts trigger a fresh leg up in the US bond yields and underpin the USD.
• Geopolitical risks and trade war fears further benefit the Greenback and weigh on the Aussie.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick to the 0.6510 region on Thursday and drops to a fresh daily low during the first half of the European session, though it lacks follow-through. Spot prices currently trade just below the 0.6500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day, and for now, seem to have stalled a recovery move from the lowest level since August 5 touched earlier this week. 

The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and reverses a part of the previous day's slide to a two-week low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. US macro data released on Wednesday pointed to a resilient economy and stalling inflation progress, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be cautious about further rate cuts. This, in turn, triggers a modest bounce in the US Treasury bond yields and helps revive the USD demand. 

Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans offer additional support to the safe-haven buck. This, along with the renewed US-China trade war, contributes to driving flows away from the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). That said, a positive risk tone and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance could limit the downside for the AUD/USD pair.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets amid relatively light liquidity on the back of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop and the lack of any meaningful buying interest suggest that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery could still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.