Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls below $30.00 due to easing geopolitical tensions

• Silver price depreciates due to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing Middle-East tensions.
• A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday.
• Dollar-denominated Silver faces headwinds as an improved US Dollar increases its cost for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday. The decline in Silver prices can be attributed to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday, following a deal mediated by the United States (US) and France. This truce has allowed people in the border areas, devastated by 14 months of conflict, to begin returning to their homes. However, Israel continues its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.

The price of dollar-denominated Silver has been pressured by an improved US dollar (USD) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain cautious about cutting interest rates following Wednesday's robust inflation data. The report indicated solid growth in consumer spending for October, but it also highlighted a stagnation in progress toward lowering inflation, keeping the Fed on alert.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.7% recorded the previous month. Both figures aligned with market expectations, indicating steady inflationary pressure within the economy.

Demand of the non-yielding Silver receives downward pressure due to optimism in the bond market following the selection of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary in the incoming administration. Bessent has advocated for a phased approach to trade restrictions and expressed a willingness to negotiate tariff levels in coordination with President-elect Donald Trump.

Silver traders still assess the recent Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for the policy meeting held on November 7, which indicated that policymakers are adopting a cautious stance on cutting interest rates, citing easing inflation and a robust labor market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 68.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 59.4%, a day ago. Nonetheless, they anticipate the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its January and March meetings.