EUR/GBP holds thin gains near 0.8350, fears downside risks due to cautious BoE

• EUR/GBP may depreciate as a recent UK inflation report has strengthened the BoE’s caution regarding rate cuts.
• ECB member Yannis Stournaras remarked that the Eurozone is nearing a sustainable attainment of its 2% inflation target.
• The Euro may face challenges as traders expect the ECB to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

EUR/GBP appreciates after two days of losses, trading around 0.8340 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the upside of the EUR/GBP cross could be limited as Wednesday’s stronger-than-anticipated UK inflation report has bolstered the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious approach toward future interest rate reductions.

UK CPI inflation surged to 2.3% year-over-year in October, marking a six-month high, up from 1.7% in September and beating forecasts of 2.2%. The monthly CPI increased by 0.6% after remaining unchanged in September. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, climbed to 3.3% over the same period, outpacing market predictions of 3.1%.

Additionally, Services inflation rose to 5%, up from 4.9% in the previous report. If price pressures continue to build, traders may reconsider expectations for interest rate cuts at the BoE's December policy meeting.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras stated that the Eurozone is close to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. Stournaras emphasized the responsibility of policymakers to ensure they do not fall short of this goal, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the EU Financial Stability Review noted that escalating geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are intensifying sovereign vulnerabilities while growing global trade disputes heighten the risk of economic shocks. 

Since June, the ECB has implemented three rate cuts as inflation edges closer to the 2% target. However, growth forecasts have been revised downward twice. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut next month, with a smaller probability of a more substantial reduction.