USD/INR gathers strength ahead of US data, Fedspeak

• The Indian Rupee extends its downside in Thursday’s Asian session.
• Rising geopolitical tensions, Trump trades, and sustained portfolio outflows weigh on the INR. 
• Traders brace for the US data and Fedspeak later on Thursday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline on Thursday. The heightened geopolitical tensions and market reactions due to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections drag the local currency lower. Additionally, continuous foreign portfolio outflows might continue to undermine the INR in the near term.

Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to intervene in the foreign exchange to mitigate further depreciation of the local currency, with state-run banks offering USD in the market. Later on Thursday, traders will monitor the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, and the CB Leading Index, which are due later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beth Hammack and Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak.

Indian Rupee weakens amid sustained portfolio outflows and geopolitical risks

• India's economic growth is expected to pick up in the current quarter after a slowdown in July-September, the RBI said in its monthly bulletin on Wednesday. 
• The Indian central bank projected third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.6%, faster than an estimated 6.7% in the second quarter.
• Indian Rupee fell by 7.8% during FY23 and by 1.4% in FY24. It has depreciated by 1.5% so far in FY25, according to the RBI. 
• Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman said on Wednesday that inflation is still elevated and moving sideways in the last few months and the US central bank should pursue a cautious approach to monetary policy.
• Futures traders are now pricing in a 54% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 80% last week, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. 

USD/INR’s broader trend remains constructive

The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe as the price holds above the ascending channel throwback support on the daily time frame. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline around 66.70, suggesting that the further upside looks favorable.

The all-time high of 84.45 appears to be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. A decisive break above this level could still take the pair up to the 85.00 psychological level.

On the other hand, sustained bearish momentum below the resistance-turned-support level at 84.35 could pave the way to the 84.00-83.90 zone, representing the round mark and the 100-day EMA.