USD/CAD remains capped below 1.4000, eyes on US jobs data, Fedspeak

• USD/CAD softens to near 1.3970 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Futures traders dialed back their expectations of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting.
• Lower crude oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie.

The USD/CAD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3970 amid the modest decline in the Greenback during the early Asian session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, and the CB Leading Index, which are due later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Hammack and Goolsbee are due to speak.

The recent strong US economic data, sticky inflation and Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election have underpinned the US Dollar (USD) against the Loonie for the time being. Markets expect that Donald Trump’s administration will reignite inflation and slow the path of rate cuts from the Fed.

Additionally, the cautious tone from the Fed officials might cap the downside for the USD. On Wednesday, Fed governor Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflation still elevated in the last few months and the Fed needed to be cautious on rate cuts. 

Futures traders have dialed back their expectations of a rate reduction at the December Fed meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. They are now pricing in around 54% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 80% last week.

On the Loonie front, the fall in crude oil prices weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). Nonetheless, the lower expectation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut a deeper-than-usual interest rate in December might help limit the CAD’s losses. The markets are now pricing in nearly a 26% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the BoC next month, down from 37% before the CPI data release.