Crude Oil under pressure after monthly IEA report

• Crude Oil support is under pressure as the IEA report adds to the bearish outlook. 
• The monthly report from the IEA bears no change in the narrative for the 2025 outlook. 
• The US Dollar Index rallies further after President-elect Trump secures a majority in both Senate and House.

Crude Oil steadies and consolidates recent losses after the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report for November on Thursday. The IEA follows the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outlook released earlier this week and has revised down its 2025 Oil demand forecast. Another downside revision adds more conviction to a bearish outlook on Oil prices in the long term.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six other currencies, extends gains and reaches a fresh year-to-date high above 107.00. 

In the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October is not expected to make any waves on Thursday after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday fell broadly in line with expectations. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell speech, scheduled at 20:00 GMT, with traders looking for clues on the December interest rate cut. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $67.99 and Brent Crude at $71.80

Oil news and market movers: IEA agrees with OPEC     

• A privately owned Chinese refiner bought West African crude in a rare purchase. Normally, independent processors in China tend to favor imports from Iran and Russia, Bloomberg reports.
• Non-OPEC capacity will be boosted by new offshore conventional projects. Projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Norway are set to add to the already oversupplied market, according to the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report. 
• In its report, the IEA lifted its forecast for this year's oil-demand growth but slightly trimmed next year's estimates, citing the impact of China's economic slowdown on consumption, Bloomberg reports. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Breakout risk at hand

Crude Oil price is starting to show the pattern that precedes a breakout, with lower highs and higher lows. A breakout looks imminent from a purely technical point of view. With all these bearish elements taken into account, a break to the downside seems rather plausible than a pop to the upside. 

On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.25 is the first barrier to consider before the hefty technical level at $73.58, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 200-day SMA at $76.68  is still quite far off, although it could get tested in case tensions in the Middle East arise. 

On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that level breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart