GBP/USD tumbles lower as losses accelerate

• GBP/USD shed nearly a full percent on Tuesday.
• Markets are pulling back into the Greenback meaningfully.
• UK Unemployment Rate rose appreciably in September.

GBP/USD lost its footing on Tuesday, shedding almost a full percent after UK labor figures came in mixed, but all Cable traders could focus on was a steeper-than-expected upswing in the UK Unemployment Rate. Outside of the UK, a broad-market bullish recovery in Greenback flows is keeping the USD well-bid, exacerbating intraday losses for Cable.

UK labor figures mostly exceeded expectations, but wages growth keeps inflation concerns elevated. While unemployment claims were below forecasts, jobless benefits seeker counts still rose compared to the previous month’s revised figure. 

The Bank of England’s (BoE) latest Monetary Policy Report is due early Wednesday, and investors will be looking out for hints of how the BoE plans to deal with a lopsided UK economy that continues to grapple with inflation figures. On the US side, key Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will land on markets. Full-fat CPI inflation is forecast to tick higher to 2.6% YoY compared to September’s print of 2.4%. Core CPI inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.3% YoY. The monthly figure for both inflation categories are broadly expected to hold flat month-on-month.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD daily chart shows a significant bearish move, with the pair breaking below key support levels and intensifying selling pressure. The recent price action has pushed GBP/USD under the 200-day EMA (1.2868), which previously provided solid support and has now turned into resistance. This break below the 200-day EMA is a bearish signal that suggests a shift in the long-term trend to the downside, as bears take control of the market. Additionally, the 50-day EMA (1.3014) remains well above the current price, further confirming the bearish momentum.

The MACD indicator on the daily chart aligns with the bearish outlook, as the MACD line is below the signal line, and both lines are trending lower in negative territory. The histogram is expanding to the downside, indicating that bearish momentum is accelerating. This MACD setup implies that sellers are growing increasingly confident, and buyers have yet to show any significant strength to counter the downward trend. Unless there is a substantial recovery in the MACD, GBP/USD is likely to remain pressured in the near term.

Given the recent downside break and bearish technical signals, GBP/USD may continue to face downside risk toward the next psychological support level at 1.2700. If bearish momentum persists and this level is breached, the pair could target the 1.2600 area, where further support might emerge. However, a close back above the 200-day EMA would be required to alleviate some bearish pressure and potentially signal a consolidation phase. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, favoring sellers in the short term.

GBP/USD daily chart