NZD/USD weakens below 0.5950 on stronger US Dollar, eyes on Fed rate decision

• NZD/USD drifts lower to near 0.5940 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump trades continue to underpin the US Dollar; the attention will shift to the Fed rate decision. 
• The rising bets of an aggressive RBNZ rate-cutting cycle might weigh on the Kiwi. 

The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5940 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains intact as markets priced in a victory for former President Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

The firmer US Dollar (USD) is supported by Trump's victory in the US election. Trump is seen as a proponent of a strong Greenback and his stance is a factor in pushing US bond yields higher. Additionally, traders speculate Republican Trump's proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, which might exert some selling pressure on China-proxy NZD as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand. 

Financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower its benchmark borrowing cost by a quarter percentage point at its October meeting on Thursday. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference as it might offer some hints about the interest rate outlook. The markets have priced in another quarter-point reduction in December, followed by a January pause and then multiple rate cuts through 2025.

Given the weakness of New Zealand’s economy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to deliver another interest rate reduction to stimulate growth. The rising expectation of the RBNZ aggressive rate-cutting cycle might drag the Kiwi lower against the USD. The RBNZ is anticipated to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bps in the final meeting of the year on November 27, with a supersize 75 bps cut an outside possibility.