USD/CAD surges to 1.3900 neighborhood as Trump trade boosts USD

• USD/CAD catches aggressive bets and draws support from a combination of factors.
• The USD rallies across the board in reaction to Trump's early election lead.
• Retreating Oil prices, dovish BoC minutes undermine the CAD and support the pair. 

The USD/CAD pair rallies over 80 pips from a two-week low, around the 1.3820-1.3815 region touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, reversing the previous day's losses and snapping a two-day losing streak. Spot prices, however, struggle to build on the momentum and remain below the 1.3900 mark as investors assess the incoming US election exit polls. 

• Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?

The US Dollar (USD) surged across the board and shot to a one-week high after initial results indicated a lead for the Republican nominee Donald Trump in Georgia – a key swing state. Apart from this, a further pullback in Crude Oil prices from over a three-week top touched on Tuesday is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and provides a goodish lift to the USD/CAD pair. 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is further weighed down by dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) October meeting minutes, showing that the governing council felt upside pressures on inflation will continue to decline and that the monetary policy need not be as restrictive. This keeps the door open for more aggressive policy easing by the Canadian central bank and favors the USD/CAD bulls. 

That said, preliminary results of the Pennsylvania exit poll turn out to be a mixed bag for Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This, in turn, keeps a lid on any further USD appreciation and acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Volatility in financial markets is expected to remain elevated on the back of the US election results, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.