Canadian Dollar extends rebound as markets focus on US election

• The Canadian Dollar added another 0.4% to extend the week’s rebound.
• Canada sees a tepid showing on the economic calendar this week.
• Broader markets remain focused on US election results, impending Fed rate cut.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained further ground on Tuesday, climbing over four-tenths of one percent against the Greenback as global markets hunker down and wait for the outcome of the US presidential election this week. 

Canada sees a limited spread of mid-tier data releases on the economic calendar this week, leaving the Loonie at the mercy of global market flows into and out of the safe haven US Dollar (USD). With another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut looming over the horizon, market volatility is set to whip and froth in tune with the US release schedule this week.

Daily digest market movers

• Canadian Internation Merchandise Trade shrank again in September, contracting by 1.26 billion CAD compared to August’s -1.47 billion contraction.
• The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stepped higher in October, rising to 56.0 from the previous d54.9 and handily beating the forecast decline to 53.8.
• The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest Summary of Deliberations revealed little new of note as the Canadian central bank continues to grapple with a lopsided economic decline taking hold of the broader Canadian economy.
• The seasonally-adjusted Canadian Ivey PMI is expected to climb on Thursday, forecast to rise to 54.2 in October compared to September’s 53.1.
• After the US presidential election finishes roiling markets early this week, investors will be pivoting on their heels to face Thursday’s impending Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call, which is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has extended into a second day of recovery against the Greenback, climbing another 0.45% and dragging the USD/CAD pair back below 1.3850. The pair reached a near-term high just north of 1.3950 late last week after the US Dollar capped off a 4% rally against the Loonie. 

USD/CAD continues to grind out chart paper in a long-term sideways trend since reaching familiar footholds in mid-2022. In the medium-term, the pair is likely headed for a fresh leg into the low end below 1.3600 if current technical flows maintain their stranglehold on USD/CAD patterns.

USD/CAD daily chart