GBP/USD Price Forecast: Remains capped below the 100-period EMA, UK Autumn Budget in focus

• GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3005 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• The bearish outlook of the pair remains intact below the 100-period EMA. 
• The first downside target to watch is 1.2943; the immediate resistance level emerges at 1.3016. 

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3005 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours. Investors will closely monitor the UK Autumn Budget 2024. The UK government is set to deliver Labour’s first budget in almost 15 years on Wednesday. Commerzbank analysts said that if the budget combines austerity with the hope of tackling long-term investment, “this should be positive for the pound as it would strengthen the U.K.’s long-term growth potential.”

GBP/USD keeps the bearish vibe on the 4-hour chart as the major pair is below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the 50-midline near 57.60, indicating that further upside cannot be ruled out in the near term. 

The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2943 acts as an initial support level for GBP/USD. A breach of this level could expose the 1.2910-1.2900 region, portraying the low of October 24 and the psychological figure. The next contention level to watch is 1.2813, the low of August 14.

On the bright side, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 1.3016 acts as the first upside barrier for the major pair. Extended gains could pave the way to the 100-period EMA at 1.3032. The next hurdle is located at 1.3071, the high of October 18.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart