GBP/USD remains depressed around 100-day SMA on stronger USD, holds above mid-1.2900s

• GBP/USD edges lower at the start of a new week amid broad-based USD strength.
• Expectations for a less aggressive Fed policy easing continue to underpin the USD.
• Bets for more BoE rate cuts weigh on the GBP and exert pressure on the major. 

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note and trades around the 1.2960-1.2955 region, just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain within striking distance of the lowest level since August 16, near the 1.2900 mark touched last week and seem vulnerable to prolonging a one-month-old downtrend amid a bullish US Dollar (USD). 

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stands firm near a three-month peak and looks to build on its gains registered over the past four weeks amid bets for a less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, market participants seem convinced that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in November as the incoming US macro data continue to suggest that the economy remains on strong footing. 

The US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Durable Goods Orders in the US decreased by 0.8% in September, slightly better than expectation for a decline of 1%. Additional details of the report showed that new orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% during the reported month. Furthermore, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index reached a six-month high of 70.5 in October, better than both the preliminary result and the previous month's reading. 

The data validates the view that the Fed will proceed with modest rate cuts over the year, which, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to underpin the USD. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is undermined by rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in November and December, bolstered by a fall in the UK Consumer Price Index to the lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank's 2% target. 

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to near the 1.3000 psychological mark support prospects for an extension of the downfall from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since February 2022 touched last month.