The Indian Rupee (INR) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair hovering within the 84.00-84.10 range. Market interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helped limit downside risks for the INR, despite continued outflows from Indian equities.
The Rupee received downward pressure as Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers of Indian stocks for the 18th consecutive session on Wednesday, shifting funds to China due to stimulus measures and more attractive valuations. The Nifty 50 has fallen 1.7% over the past three sessions this week and is down about 6% from last week's record highs, weighed down by disappointing earnings results.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first formal talks in five years on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. During their meeting on Wednesday, the two leaders agreed to enhance communication and cooperation between India and China, aiming to resolve ongoing conflicts and improve relations that were strained following a deadly military clash in 2020, according to Reuters.
Traders are likely to keep an eye on the HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key indicator of business activity in India, which is set to be released on Thursday. Attention will also turn to FX Reserves (USD) data for the week ending October 14, expected to be published on Friday.
The USD/INR pair holds steady above 84.00 on Thursday. An analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is hovering within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing the 70 mark, which further reinforces the current bullish momentum.
In terms of resistance, the pair may face obstacles at its all-time high of 84.14, reached on August 5. A breakout above this level could enable the USD/INR pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which is around 84.20.
On the support side, immediate backing is located at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 84.02 level, coinciding with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the psychological level of 84.00.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.32% | -0.08% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.04% | |
EUR | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.25% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.02% | |
GBP | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.00% | |
JPY | 0.32% | 0.25% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.28% | |
CAD | 0.08% | -0.00% | 0.04% | -0.25% | -0.11% | -0.08% | 0.03% | |
AUD | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.12% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.16% | |
NZD | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.13% | 0.08% | -0.05% | 0.12% | |
CHF | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.28% | -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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