GBP/JPY rises over 1.0% as political instability weighs on the Yen

• GBP/JPY is rising as pre-election concerns the ruling LDP party could lose weakens the Yen. 
• A change of government or weaker ruling coalition could impact the BoJ’s decision making with consequences for the currency. 
• The Bank of England’s relatively more hawkish stance on interest rates is a further backwind for GBP/JPY. 

The GBP/JPY is trading over 1.0% higher on Wednesday in the 198.30s. A combination of political instability in Japan and shifting economic forecasts, coupled with differing monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE), are key elements shaping market sentiment and trading behavior.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been under considerable selling pressure due to domestic political uncertainty in Japan. Recent polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose its majority in the upcoming general election. A potential leadership shift or the need for a coalition could complicate the government's policy-making, including monetary policy conducted by the Bank of Japan. Political instability often creates risk aversion, leading to a weakening of the affected currency, which, in this case, places downward pressure on the Yen. 

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) downgrade of Japan's economic growth forecast to 0.3% for this year, down from a previous 0.7%, further exacerbates this pressure. A weaker economic outlook generally reduces demand for a currency, contributing to a decline in its value. In the near term the weak growth reflected in these revisions are contributing to downward momentum for the Yen, which can lead to an increase in the GBP/JPY exchange rate.

On the other hand, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is experiencing upward momentum against the Yen, supported by relatively more hawkish signals from the Bank of England (BoE). BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene’s remarks during the IMF meeting reinforced this sentiment. Despite recent data showing a drop in UK inflation to 1.7% in September, below the BoE's 2% target, Greene noted that the decrease was due to volatile components and would not sway her vote significantly. This suggests that the BoE may still prioritize tackling inflation, which supports expectations of tighter monetary policy. In contrast to Japan's more accommodative stance, this divergence can lead to an increase in the value of the Pound relative to the Yen.

Moreover, market participants are keenly awaiting BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s upcoming speech, which could provide further insights into the bank’s future policy decisions, including potential rate cuts in November and December. While markets are speculating about the possibility of further rate reductions in the UK, the BoE’s relatively stronger position compared to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance is supporting the Pound, and the GBP/JPY.

Additionally, economic data releases such as the UK’s flash S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October are expected to show modest expansion in business activity. Positive data from the UK economy would further bolster the Pound, adding additional upward pressure to the GBP/JPY exchange rate.

In summary, the GBP/JPY exchange rate is being driven higher by a combination of the Yen's weakness, due to Japan's political and economic challenges, and the relative strength of the Pound, supported by the BoE’s more hawkish policy outlook. These factors collectively suggest an upward bias in the GBP/JPY pair in the near term.