GBP/USD consolidates around mid-1.3000s, seems vulnerable amid bullish USD

• GBP/USD remains close to a one-month low touched last week amid a bullish USD.
• Bets for a less aggressive Fed policy easing and geopolitical risks underpin the buck.
• Expectations for a faster BoE rate-cutting cycle weigh the GBP and favor bears.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on modest recovery gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow range, around the 1.3050-1.3045 region during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices remain well within striking distance of a one-month low touched last Thursday and seem vulnerable to prolong the recent retracement slide from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022.

A surprise fall in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the lowest level since April 2021 and below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target lifted bets for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the November 7 meeting. Furthermore, the money markets are pricing in the possibility of another BoE rate cut in December, which might continue to undermine the British Pound (GBP). This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) validates the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. 

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, kicks off the new week on a positive note and for now, seems to have stalled its modest pullback from its highest level since early August touched last week. Growing market conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest rate cuts over the next year keep the US Treasury bond yields elevated and act as a tailwind for the buck. Apart from this, geopolitical risks turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven USD. 

In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the US, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. Hence, any intraday move-up could be seen as a selling opportunity. Bearish traders, however, might wait for acceptance below the 1.3000 psychological mark before placing fresh bets and positioning for a slide towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently near the 1.2960 region.