USD/JPY holds above 149.00 on firmer US Dollar

• USD/JPY trades on a stronger note near 149.20 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• The BoJ rate hike uncertainty continues to undermine the JPY, but geopolitical risks might cap its downside. 
• The US PPI supports the case for a Fed rate cut in November. 

The USD/JPY pair extends its upside to around 149.20 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The firmer US Dollar (USD) and uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s stance on monetary policy provide some support to the pair. 

The doubts over how aggressive the BoJ would be in raising rates weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the USD. The BoJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised the short-term benchmark to 0.25% in July. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the central bank's readiness to keep raising interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecast. Nonetheless, uncertainty about Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's stance on monetary policy could complicate the decision to raise borrowing costs.

The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might lift the safe-haven currency like the JPY and cap the upside for the pair. CNN reported on Sunday that at least four Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 60 people were injured by a drone attack in north-central Israel and Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for the attack.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Friday points to a still-favorable inflation outlook and supports expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut next month. However, the prospect that the Fed will not cut rates as much as expected might underpin the Greenback.

Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, trades near the highest level since mid-August above the 103.00 psychological level. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in roughly 88.6% odds that the Fed will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in November.