Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $31 after hotter-than-expected US Inflation

• Silver price climbs to near $31.00 despite the US inflation remained hotter-than-expected in September.
• The core CPI accelerated to 3.3% from estimates and the August reading of 3.2%.
• Traders expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by 25 bps next month.

Silver price (XAG/USD) strengthens and jumps to near $31.00 in Thursday’s North American session. The white metal witnessed strong buying interest after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September.

The CPI report showed that Inflationary pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace due to a sharp increase in prices of apparel. Also, medical and transportation services became more expensive.

The annual headline inflation decelerated at a slower-than-projected pace to 2.4% from 2.5% in August as the impact of a sharp decline in the cost of energy was offset by a rise in food prices. Economists estimated the headline inflation to have grown by 2.3%. The core CPI – which strips off volatile food and energy prices – accelerated to 3.3% from the estimates and the former release of 3.2%. The monthly headline and core inflation grew faster than projected.

The white metal struggles for direction as market participants are taking time to digest inflationary figures and adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for the remaining year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, a 25-basis points (bps) rate cut in November is highly expected.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is also displaying volatile moves after the US inflation data release.  Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published on Friday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price weakens after a breakdown of the Double Top formation on a four-hour timeframe. The above-mentioned pattern was activated after the asset broke below the horizontal support plotted from the September 30 low around $31.00, which acts as a resistance now. A bear cross, represented by the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $31.60, suggests weakness ahead.

The asset has temporarily found support near the 200 EMA, which trades around $30.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has delivered a range shift move, suggesting a bearish momentum.

Silver four-hour chart