GBP/USD trades with positive bias around 1.3075 area, lacks follow-through ahead of US CPI

• GBP/USD edges higher amid subdued USD price action, though the upside seems limited.
• Expectations for more aggressive BoE policy easing undermine the GBP amid a bullish USD.
• Bulls also seem reluctant ahead of Thursday’s release of the US consumer inflation figures.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild positive bias around the 1.3075 area during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it lacks bullish conviction and remains within the striking distance of a nearly one-month low touched the previous day. 

The US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent strong gains to the highest level since August 16 and continues to draw support from rising bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The expectations were reaffirmed by the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday, which showed a consensus that the outsized rate cut would not lock the central bank into any specific pace for future cuts. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond elevated above the 4% threshold, or its highest level since July 31, which continues to underpin the buck and acts as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

Meanwhile, last week's dovish remarks by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the central bank might be heading towards speeding up its rate-cutting cycle. This, in turn, might contribute to the British Pound's (GBP) relative underperformance and cap any meaningful upside for the GBP/USD pair. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which along with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, might influence expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair. 

Heading into the key data risks, traders on Thursday might take cues from the BoE Credit Conditions Survey to grab short-term opportunities. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside, suggesting that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity. Spot prices seem poised to extend the recent sharp pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022 touched last month.