USD/INR loses momentum despite US Dollar strength

• Indian Rupee holds positive ground in Monday’s Asian session. 
• Firmer USD, foreign outflows and higher crude oil prices might undermine the INR.
• Traders await the Fedspeak later on Monday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD), heightened fund outflows from local equities and the rise in crude oil prices might weigh on the local currency. 

Traders will keep an eye on Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus. Any dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might drag the Greenback lower and support the INR. On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight. The Indian central bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation remains elevated.  

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee rebounds, potential upside seems limited 

• The HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to a 10-month low of 57.7 in September from 60.9 in August, below the market consensus of 58.9.  
• "The headline business activity index fell below 60 for the first time in 2024, but we note that at 57.7, it was still much above the long-term average," noted Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
• The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 254,000 in September from August's revised 159,000 and above the market consensus of 140,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. 
• The Unemployment Rate ticks lower to 4.1% in September, down from 4.2% in August. The Average Hourly Earnings rose to 3.8% from 3.6% during the same period. 
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that he thinks the recent employment data was "superb" and noted that additional reports like this would increase his confidence that the US economy has reached full employment with low inflation.  

Technical Analysis: USD/INR maintains a positive stance in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. The constructive outlook of the USD/INR prevails as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 59.80. 

Consistent trading above the key resistance level of 84.00, representing the upper boundary of the rectangle and psychological mark, could help draw in enough buyers to push USD/INR back to the all-time high of 84.15, en route to 84.50. 

On the flip side, any follow-through selling below 83.80, the low of October 1, could drag the pair to the 100-day EMA at 83.65. The next downside target emerges at 83.00, representing the round mark and the low of May 24.